Will Republicans start allocating Georgia electoral votes by Congressional district?
Skill and Chance:
That having been said, it is very possible Georgia ends up being decisive in 2024 if Harris is the nominee:
I assume PA would still vote left of GA for Biden given the home state bounce.
Beet:
If this happens we pretty much need to redo the civil rights movement all over again...
pbrower2a:
States are not allowed to cast their electoral votes in ways that grossly distort representation of voters in a split. The non-split of winner-take-al is still acceptable.
The two states that do split their votes by Congressional district have clear divides for their districts. that separate parts of those two states into very separate locations. In Maine it is a clear north-south divide; in Nebraska it is an urban area (Greater Omaha) and two districts that divide between a largely-farming area and the ranching area that is the thinly-populated central and western part of the state. For may other states, gerrymandering is a potential problem. Congressional districts are mostly transitory entities as populations shift. The First Congressional District of Michigan has expanded from the Upper Peninsula (an area whose population density is characteristic of the non-urban areas of the Mountain West) as it has shed population.
Most Congressional districts change over time. Michigan will lose a Congressional District, and I can imagine my county being transferred from one Congressional district to another. If I drive on a rural freeway in Michigan I see signs for county and township lines, but never for Congressional districts.
For states with seven or more electoral votes I would split the electoral votes, giving the electoral votes assigned to US senatorial representation to the winner of the state and splitting the rest of the electoral votes proportionately among the leading vote-getters, with the qualification that nobody gets a partial electoral vote.
Here's how it would work with the one state that has twelve electoral votes (Washington). Based on the 2020 vote, the winner of the plurality of votes (Joe Biden) would get the two statewide votes not associated with Congressional districts. That leaves ten other electoral votes to divide.
No third-party nominee won 10% of the vote, so Jo Jorgenson would get no electoral votes, and her votes would be ignored. That leaves 3,954,263 votes between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Trump would end up with just over 40% of the meaningful votes (which rules out Libertarian, Green, and other such nominees and such political luminaries as "Jesus Christ", "Santa Claus", "Darth Vader", "None of the Above", and persons ineligible to be elected such as people Constitutionally ineligible such as George Herbert Walker Bush [deceased], Barack Obama [two-term disqualification] and Madeleine Albright [not a natural-born US citizen]). Trump would get (obviously with ten electoral votes to divide, the math gets easy) four full electoral votes and Biden would get five for their full shares. Biden gets the remaining electoral votes. Thus Biden gets eight electoral votes from Washington state and Trump gets four, and he would be lucky to get those four.
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers:
Quote from: Skill and Chance on November 28, 2020, 08:56:53 PM
That having been said, it is very possible Georgia ends up being decisive in 2024 if Harris is the nominee:
I assume PA would still vote left of GA for Biden given the home state bounce.
Bob Casey Jr is on the ballot and so is Tammy Baldwin we are losing WI and PA and Rs can't beat Fetterman
Schiff for Senate:
No, because GA could still very plausibly vote red, and it would backfire massively. Because despite the insistence of users on Talk Elections, GA is still very much a swing state and not a blue one that could go red. It voted blue in 2020 by 0.24%, and there are enough suburbanite moderate Romney/Biden voters who might return to the GOP if Trump isn't the nominee, and there might easily be enough to flip the state back (albeit narrowly), despite demographic changes. Of course, in the long term GA will become bluer, but for now (and for 2024) it will be blue.
If passing those kinds of laws is what the GOP wants to do, they should do it in states like MI and PA, where even if they lose the state (which is pretty likely for 2024), they get a good number of electoral votes they'd be otherwise deprived of.
The task is for them to find a state which is blue enough at a presidential level where they can implement this law, and successfully. In GA, it could very easily be counterintuive.
Of course, the GOP can pass this law in GA in some years, when GA is bluer - but the problem with that is Democrats might control the legilsature by then, which can be remedied by Georgia Republicans pulling a massive and agressive gerrymander to maintain their majority and implement this law at the right time, when GA is blue - which is currently not the case.
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