Should Tom Kean Jr. leave politics?

[Suburbia]

Tom Kean Jr. is seen as a Northeastern Republican country club blue blood trust fund baby, as his Democratic counterpart Steve Sweeney called him in 2013.

The son of a Northeastern Republican icon, Tom Kean Sr., Kean has failed to win an election outside of his wealthy suburban area of Central Jersey which is trending Democratic now.

*In 2000, lost GOP House primary to Mike Ferguson
*In 2006, lost U.S. Senate race to corrupt Sen. Bob Menendez, despite a 2006 Democratic wave year
*Was almost ousted by Gov. Christie in 2013's Senate leadership election, Christie wanted Kevin O'Toole as minority leader
*Has been NJ GOP Senate Leader since 2008, replacing Leonard Lance, failed to win any notable Senate seats since 2008
*In 2020, lost U.S. House race to Tom Malinowski, where he could have tied him to AOC in a Democratic year

https://www.nj.com/politics/2013/11/sweeney_calls_tom_kean_jr_a_trust-fund_baby.html
https://www.nj.com/politics/2013/11/democrats_continue_to_savage_kean.html

Does he win a House seat in the future or what?

[Kuumo]

Kean Jr. should wait for New Jersey redistricting. There could end up being a more Republican district that he would be favored to win in a Biden midterm. Even in the current NJ-07, Kean Jr. probably would have won in a more Republican-friendly year.

[kwabbit]

Tom Kean Jr. is seen as a Northeastern Republican country club blue blood trust fund baby, as his Democratic counterpart Steve Sweeney called him in 2013.

The son of a Northeastern Republican icon, Tom Kean Sr., Kean has failed to win an election outside of his wealthy suburban area of Central Jersey which is trending Democratic now.

*In 2000, lost GOP House primary to Mike Ferguson
*In 2006, lost U.S. Senate race to corrupt Sen. Bob Menendez, despite a 2006 Democratic wave year
*Was almost ousted by Gov. Christie in 2013's Senate leadership election, Christie wanted Kevin O'Toole as minority leader
*Has been NJ GOP Senate Leader since 2008, replacing Leonard Lance, failed to win any notable Senate seats since 2008
*In 2020, lost U.S. House race to Tom Malinowski, where he could have tied him to AOC in a Democratic year

https://www.nj.com/politics/2013/11/sweeney_calls_tom_kean_jr_a_trust-fund_baby.html
https://www.nj.com/politics/2013/11/democrats_continue_to_savage_kean.html

Does he win a House seat in the future or what?

Wouldn't Kean losing by 9 points in a Democratic wave year in NJ point to the fact that he's a decent candidate? Kean hasn't had so much success, but he's not been dealt the easiest set of cards. If he was given more support this year in his House race, he could've won and if that senate matchup happened in 2002 or 2004 he could've won.

[Indy Texas]

I don't understand why anyone would want to be a member of the US House these days.

If I were him, I'd just run for governor when Murphy retires and it's an open seat.

[S019]

No, he should just run in Republican wave years, and yes a sink is almost certainly being made in the north that he can run for

[Politics Fan]

Kean Jr. should wait for New Jersey redistricting. There could end up being a more Republican district that he would be favored to win in a Biden midterm. Even in the current NJ-07, Kean Jr. probably would have won in a more Republican-friendly year.

NJ Dems have no reason to draw another R-leaning district. Their best bet is to vote sink Van-Drew along with NJ-4 while drawing the remaining seats as safe/likely D. 

[Suburbia]

I don't understand why anyone would want to be a member of the US House these days.

If I were him, I'd just run for governor when Murphy retires and it's an open seat.

What is wrong with being a House member these days?

Won't the Kean name in 2025 be old news by then?

[Babeuf]

Kean Jr. should wait for New Jersey redistricting. There could end up being a more Republican district that he would be favored to win in a Biden midterm. Even in the current NJ-07, Kean Jr. probably would have won in a more Republican-friendly year.

NJ Dems have no reason to draw another R-leaning district. Their best bet is to vote sink Van-Drew along with NJ-4 while drawing the remaining seats as safe/likely D.  

NJ Dems might not get the lines they want. Will be up to the tiebreaker (last time Farmer chose the GOP congressional map, while Rosenthal chose the Dem state legislature maps).

[Roll Roons]

So apparently there's a chance he may not run for reelection to the State Senate next year in order to focus on a likely 2022 congressional run: https://www.politico.com/newjerseyplaybook

His district was solidly Republican at the start of the decade. Trump is anathema here, although they are still willing to vote for the right downballot Republicans (Kean himself in 2017, Bramnick and Munoz). I guess we need to wait and see what happens. New Jersey will be the first real test of the post-Trump GOP.

[Suburbia]

I don't understand why anyone would want to be a member of the US House these days.

If I were him, I'd just run for governor when Murphy retires and it's an open seat.

What's bad being a House member?

Otherwise, yes, Kean should angle for 2025 or 2029......for governor

[LabourJersey]

Kean Jr. should wait for New Jersey redistricting. There could end up being a more Republican district that he would be favored to win in a Biden midterm. Even in the current NJ-07, Kean Jr. probably would have won in a more Republican-friendly year.

NJ Dems have no reason to draw another R-leaning district. Their best bet is to vote sink Van-Drew along with NJ-4 while drawing the remaining seats as safe/likely D. 

I think the common thought is that the Democrats will sacrifice Malinowski to make Sherill's and Gottheimer's districts more Democratic. Mainly give Sherill the Union County portions of NJ-07 and Gottheimer take some of the northern towns in NJ-11.

I don't know if they'll do it, but I guess there's something to be said for having a nice, safe 9-3 map.

[Suburbia]

Kean Jr. should wait for New Jersey redistricting. There could end up being a more Republican district that he would be favored to win in a Biden midterm. Even in the current NJ-07, Kean Jr. probably would have won in a more Republican-friendly year.

NJ Dems have no reason to draw another R-leaning district. Their best bet is to vote sink Van-Drew along with NJ-4 while drawing the remaining seats as safe/likely D. 

I think the common thought is that the Democrats will sacrifice Malinowski to make Sherill's and Gottheimer's districts more Democratic. Mainly give Sherill the Union County portions of NJ-07 and Gottheimer take some of the northern towns in NJ-11.

I don't know if they'll do it, but I guess there's something to be said for having a nice, safe 9-3 map.

Do you think Democrats do anything to get rid of Smith and Van Drew? Maybe add some Camden suburbs in Van Drew's district?

[LabourJersey]

Kean Jr. should wait for New Jersey redistricting. There could end up being a more Republican district that he would be favored to win in a Biden midterm. Even in the current NJ-07, Kean Jr. probably would have won in a more Republican-friendly year.

NJ Dems have no reason to draw another R-leaning district. Their best bet is to vote sink Van-Drew along with NJ-4 while drawing the remaining seats as safe/likely D. 

I think the common thought is that the Democrats will sacrifice Malinowski to make Sherill's and Gottheimer's districts more Democratic. Mainly give Sherill the Union County portions of NJ-07 and Gottheimer take some of the northern towns in NJ-11.

I don't know if they'll do it, but I guess there's something to be said for having a nice, safe 9-3 map.

Do you think Democrats do anything to get rid of Smith and Van Drew? Maybe add some Camden suburbs in Van Drew's district?

They could, but it's hard to not draw at least one strongly Republican district based around the Jersey shore. Ocean County is large and very Republican, not to mention Cape May. And Monmouth is also large but Republican outside of a few major towns.