Why does California never elect GOP governors like Massachusetts and Maryland ?

[Cyrusman]

Why does California never elect a Republican governor like Massachusetts, Maryland, or even New York has? For example why can’t a moderate, socially liberal Republican do well in California?
I live here and Newsom  flat out sucks. I’d take Jerry Brown back in a heartbeat.
If a state like Massachusetts is willing to give a moderate, socially liberal, well spoken GOP candidate a shot at governor why isn’t California able to?

[OSR stands with Israel]

What do you mean never , this is the Dems 3rd term controlling the Gubernatorial office in CA which is still less than the 4 consecutive terms the Republicans controlled the Gubernatorial office for from 1982-1998. From 1966-2010 the Republicans controlled the Gubernatorial office for 31/44 years in California and for that period the 2/3 budget rule existed which gave the GOP governors much more power then they have in MA


Also Maryland literally elected only one Republican Governor from 1970-2014 and that too for only one term

[Cyrusman]

What do you mean never , this is the Dems 3rd term controlling the Gubernatorial office in CA which is still less than the 4 consecutive terms the Republicans controlled the Gubernatorial office for from 1982-1998. From 1966-2010 the Republicans controlled the Gubernatorial office for 31/44 years in California and for that period the 2/3 budget rule existed which gave the GOP governors much more power then they have in MA


Also Maryland literally elected only one Republican Governor from 1970-2014 and that too for only one term

Okay I should’ve worded that better. I know they have in the past, but since the turn of the new century the only GOP governor was a popular Hollywood actor and that was after the Gray Davis sh**t show. It seems like post Arnold this state will never elect another one.

[GALeftist]

Bigger state = less room for parties to overperform

[SevenEleven]

CA gave the GOP a shot, they blew it, we are never taking that risk again. White nationalism doesn't play well here.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

I could honestly see Arnold being competitive if he tried again and there weren't term limits.

[Mike Thick]

There are too many crazies here for them to effectively split from the national brand like, say, Phil Scott does

[Bootes Void]

there has never been a Dem governor for more than 2 terms in California until Newsom won in 2018. they also had a gop governor during the 2000s as well like Arnie. I could have seen California elect a GOP governor in 2018 had Clinton become president but obviously that didn't happen

[Kuumo]

California is a huge state where retail politics doesn't really work. California Democrats may also be more partisan than New England Democrats because California has less of a history of moderate Republicans than states like Massachusetts. Arnold Schwarzenegger was the exception here; previous Republican governors such as Pete Wilson tended to be staunch conservatives, and most Orange County and San Diego County Republicans also tended to be staunchly conservative like the national party. In contrast, New England has had lots of comparatively moderate governors like Massachusetts's Bill Weld and Vermont's Jim Douglas who governed similarly to Charlie Baker and Phil Scott today.

[Mr. Smith]

Because the GOP is a joke, and the last moment of exception proved why with all the prison expansion and public education cuts. They had a great opportunity when the big sell out meanie botched the big energy crisis...and they blew it.

Mass GOP are smarter than that.

It's a bummer that Newsom is still the best since Pat Brown.

@Kuumo: 1994 pandering aside, Wilson was actually quite moderate. He was no Duke.

[Agonized-Statism]

You could argue that Schwarzenegger was the Larry Hogan of California. Now, I'd say it's an issue of simple math- Wilson burned bridges with what has become a plurality of the population, Mexican-Americans, and trends in the national party since Schwarzenegger's time haven't gone in favor of the state party healing that wound.

If Republicans can keep up 2020 trends with minorities nationally, this could happen in the 2030s or 2040s.

[Tekken_Guy]

California’s GOP hasn’t really distanced itself from the national party as well as MD or MA have. Arnold’s election was a fluke because he was a celebrity,

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

California elected GOP governor more recently than NY so I don't know what you're talking about. Washington is the state with a really long Democratic streak for governor. It was a close call in 2004.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Because Cali is an entitlement state and most of the GOP are fairly moderate in Orange County that are satisfied with working with Secular Govs like Newsom and Jerry 🟤 Brown

Mass is a latte state and Hogan will be the last R Gov, he had a good relationship like Schwarzenegger had with black and brown community. The Rs in Cali live in suburbs, they don't reach out to minorities

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

An argument can be made that because until recently California has supermajority requirements for many basic measures such as passing a budget, California voters felt less need to vote for a governor of the opposite party to serve as a check on their State legislature than voters in some other States did.

I don't know how good an argument can be made, nor do I care enough to develop it myself, but it's a reasonable starting conjecture.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

California’s GOP hasn’t really distanced itself from the national party as well as MD or MA have. Arnold’s election was a fluke because he was a celebrity,

Yea Arnold shouldn't count. The R label is cancerous, and the state party is Trump neophytes. If they start distentcing themselves now, and then add 15 years, become like Hogan and Baker, maybe we'd have a viable chance. The problem is that unlike those eastern states there is vast conservative lands with a population the size of Massachusetts and Maryland who are as conservative as the republican rurals. It's not viable to change the party when your base is so out of step with the other 2/3 of the state.

[Pollster]

A major reason is the fact that California is a state where the national Republican party still exists in a meaningful way (McCarthy obviously, Nunes and Issa quite prominent, multiple Republicans just elected in tight Congressional races). It's quite difficult to distance yourself from the national party when the national party still has a base in your state (the leader of the party, no less). The only federally elected Republican in MA/MD/VT is Andy Harris, who is about as insignificant as a member of Congress can get.

[Calthrina950]

I could honestly see Arnold being competitive if he tried again and there weren't term limits.

But would he even run as a Republican now?

[OSR stands with Israel]

An argument can be made that because until recently California has supermajority requirements for many basic measures such as passing a budget, California voters felt less need to vote for a governor of the opposite party to serve as a check on their State legislature than voters in some other States did.

I don't know how good an argument can be made, nor do I care enough to develop it myself, but it's a reasonable starting conjecture.

That rule was removed by the time Brown became governor the 2nd time.

[TDAS04]

Um, they had one exactly 10 years ago.  This would be a better question for Oregon or Washington.

[Canis]

I could honestly see Arnold being competitive if he tried again and there weren't term limits.

But would he even run as a Republican now?

He still identifies as a Republican but the party considers him a RINO for my poli sci class we had speakers from the state party of the Democrats, Republicans, Libertairans, and Greens come to speak and I asked the republican speaker why she was against the top two system if Arnold who was a Republican governor implemented it and she said he was a RINO and ranted about how none of his policies as governor were truly conservative in their eyes and blamed Arnold for the economic crash in California in 2010 . Since he's been such a vocal critic of Trump and the CA GOP lately I mean he could run as Republican but I don't think the CA GOP would give him any backing unless he made the top two. The CA GOP really want Faulconer to run and he is pretty much their best candidate at this point Newsom really ed up with the Dinner party thing but who knows how much people are gonna remember that come 2022/

[Calthrina950]

I could honestly see Arnold being competitive if he tried again and there weren't term limits.

But would he even run as a Republican now?

He still identifies as a Republican but the party considers him a RINO for my poli sci class we had speakers from the state party of the Democrats, Republicans, Libertairans, and Greens come to speak and I asked the republican speaker why she was against the top two system if Arnold who was a Republican governor implemented it and she said he was a RINO and ranted about how none of his policies as governor were truly conservative in their eyes and blamed Arnold for the economic crash in California in 2010 . Since he's been such a vocal critic of Trump and the CA GOP lately I mean he could run as Republican but I don't think the CA GOP would give him any backing unless he made the top two. The CA GOP really want Faulconer to run and he is pretty much their best candidate at this point Newsom really ed up with the Dinner party thing but who knows how much people are gonna remember that come 2022/

This all makes sense. Schwarzenegger, if he weren't term-limited, probably would be better served to run as an independent at this point, given what you've said. But yes, Faulconer is their best possible candidate, and he might manage to make the race as close as that between Brown and Kashkari in 2014 (~60-40% or so), if he's lucky.

[Canis]

I could honestly see Arnold being competitive if he tried again and there weren't term limits.

But would he even run as a Republican now?

He still identifies as a Republican but the party considers him a RINO for my poli sci class we had speakers from the state party of the Democrats, Republicans, Libertairans, and Greens come to speak and I asked the republican speaker why she was against the top two system if Arnold who was a Republican governor implemented it and she said he was a RINO and ranted about how none of his policies as governor were truly conservative in their eyes and blamed Arnold for the economic crash in California in 2010 . Since he's been such a vocal critic of Trump and the CA GOP lately I mean he could run as Republican but I don't think the CA GOP would give him any backing unless he made the top two. The CA GOP really want Faulconer to run and he is pretty much their best candidate at this point Newsom really ed up with the Dinner party thing but who knows how much people are gonna remember that come 2022/

This all makes sense. Schwarzenegger, if he weren't term-limited, probably would be better served to run as an independent at this point, given what you've said. But yes, Faulconer is their best possible candidate, and he might manage to make the race as close as that between Brown and Kashkari in 2014 (~60-40% or so), if he's lucky.

Yeah Faulconers a good candidate cause he's socially liberal and fiscally conservative and that pleases a lot of voters here but California so blue at this point I just cant see Newsom getting below 50% in the top two. I think it would take a Roy Moore caliber screw up to make this race actually competitive. The CA gop has a very low ceiling at this point.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

The California Republican Party was extremely right wing in the 90s:

Voters have a folk memory of this stuff.

Massachusetts Republicanism had a long tradition of Yankee liberal conservatism. California was the state of Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Orange County, Western rugged individualism, law and order against the hippies at Berkeley and the LA rioters. When it started flipping demographically California conservatives reacted extremely badly and basically went full Trumpian. This is an interesting Vox article about the Californian origins of Trumpist conservatism: Andrew Breitbart, Stephen Miller and Michael Anton (author of the infamous 'Flight 93' essay) are all from California.

[Cyrusman]

The California Republican Party was extremely right wing in the 90s:

Voters have a folk memory of this stuff.

Massachusetts Republicanism had a long tradition of Yankee liberal conservatism. California was the state of Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Orange County, Western rugged individualism, law and order against the hippies at Berkeley and the LA rioters. When it started flipping demographically California conservatives reacted extremely badly and basically went full Trumpian. This is an interesting Vox article about the Californian origins of Trumpist conservatism: Andrew Breitbart, Stephen Miller and Michael Anton (author of the infamous 'Flight 93' essay) are all from California.

What’s bad about that ad you posted? All Wilson is trying to promote is a crackdown on illegal immigration not immigration all together