At this point, I think coalitions have shifted too much + demographic changes and generational turnover have upended traditional R pathways in IL to such an extent that I don’t see how any Republican can recreate Rauner's map (not just in terms of the margins, but also the county wins themselves). It’s hard to conceive such a scenario now, but the next Republican to win IL will probably break at least 35% in Cook but still lose DuPage and Lake narrowly (and likely two other counties or so as well — Rock Island and Champaign?). Chicago would likely need to lose population at a faster rate than it currently is for this to happen, though.
I know you are of the belief that Democratic gains among "upscale suburban voters" will practically continue indefinitely, but come on ... a Republican winning Illinois is VERY clearly winning DuPage. If Pritzker were to lose in 2022, there is quite literally zero chance he goes down while carrying DuPage. You can question if a Republican can even win IL
at all, but for God's sake, DuPage still votes WAY to the right of the state locally, and Lake does less so:
2018 GOVERNOR'S ELECTIONIllinois:
54.5% DEM,
38.8% GOPDuPage:
48.4% DEM,
46.1% GOPLake:
51.3% DEM,
43.6% GOPThe only two counties to vote to the left of the state as a whole were Cook and Champaign. DuPage voted 13.4% to the right of the state, being more Republican than Peoria, rural Fulton County, Rock Island, and the Southern Illinois counties of St. Clair (East St. Louis), Jackson and Alexander. Even if the expected Downstate backlash against Pritzker happens in two years, that doesn't change the fact that there is zero path to victory for a Republican to win statewide without DuPage and, likely, every other suburban county, as well, with the possible exception of Lake.
DuPage DID vote 2.4% to the left of the state in the 2020 election, but I would argue that local elections are quite different than national ones, especially in solid blue states like Illinois; even in 2020, DuPage was less Democratic than Champaign, insinuating at least Champaign would hold out longer. Again, if you want to say that Republicans cannot win DuPage County anymore, fine ... then I think you're arguing Republicans will never win Illinois again. I just don't think the math is there for a Republican to be elected statewide without winning DuPage.
