Ohio vs Pennsylvania

[Padfoot]

I feel like Ohio and Pennsylvania are very demographically similar (combination of big metros & rural Appalachia) and yet Ohio is consistently to the right of Pennsylvania and has become increasingly more so during the Trump era.  Does any one have a hypothesis as to why this is?  Does Pennsylvania have a greater percentage of urban dwellers than Ohio?  What gives?  The only thing I can see is that suburban Philly voters seem to be much more liberal than those in the three C metros of Ohio but I don't really have an explanation as to why that would be so.  What does everyone think?

[Roll Roons]

Rural areas also have something to do with it.

A lot of the rural counties in Pennsylvania have been solidly Republican pretty much since the Civil War, so Democrats have had little room to fall as they've made gains in the suburbs of Philly (gains that largely started in the 90s).

However, rural southeastern Ohio was fairly friendly to Democrats until not that long ago, but their collapse in this area has been swift and hard. Ohio's suburbs have trended left in the Trump era, but they've traditionally been much more Republican than those in Pennsylvania, so the change just hasn't come fast enough to counteract the decline in Appalachia.

Another factor is that the Pennsylvania Democrats are much more competent than their counterparts in Ohio.

[King of Kensington]

Of the two Ps and three Cs, Metro Philadelphia is less white working class than all the others, and metro Cincinnati is especially conservative.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

To start with, metropolitan Philly is 1/3 of the state. Add in Allegheny and over 40% of Pennsylvania is in big, urban and suburban counties.

Second, Philly is culturally and demographically part of the Northeast which means it's just more liberal. Compare the margins the Democrats get on the Main Line against Delaware County or Lorain county. It just isn't the same.

Third, this Northeast-Corridor-ness applies to the whole eastern half of the state. Certainly, places like Berks and Lancaster and York counties vote Republican but not by as much as small metro areas in Ohio where Republicans really rack up votes. Being less than two hours from Philly, DC, and New York affects the political culture of York and Reading and Allentown and so on.

[King of Kensington]

How similar to the vote share in Ohio is Pennsylvania minus Philadelphia area?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

How similar to the vote share in Ohio is Pennsylvania minus Philadelphia area?

Ohio: R+8
PA-Philly: R+15
PA-Philly and Pittsburgh: R+22
Ohio-Three C's: R+23

[TJ in Oregon]

How similar to the vote share in Ohio is Pennsylvania minus Philadelphia area?

Ohio: R+8
PA-Philly: R+15
PA-Philly and Pittsburgh: R+22
Ohio-Three C's: R+23

So the digested version seems to be that the rest of both states is basically the same, but Philly+Pittsburgh are more Dem than the 3Cs combined.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

How similar to the vote share in Ohio is Pennsylvania minus Philadelphia area?

Ohio: R+8
PA-Philly: R+15
PA-Philly and Pittsburgh: R+22
Ohio-Three C's: R+23

So the digested version seems to be that the rest of both states is basically the same, but Philly+Pittsburgh are more Dem than the 3Cs combined.

It definitely seems that way, at least in aggregate.

[Sol]

Cincinnati is ofc a very conservative metro area, wildly moreso than Pittsburgh. It makes Ohio more Republican rather than less.

[King of Kensington]

Pittsburgh MSA I believe voted narrowly for Trump - it's one of the whitest and most working class metros.  But not to the degree of Cincinnati.

[avishwanath28]

How similar to the vote share in Ohio is Pennsylvania minus Philadelphia area?

Ohio: R+8
PA-Philly: R+15
PA-Philly and Pittsburgh: R+22
Ohio-Three C's: R+23

So the digested version seems to be that the rest of both states is basically the same, but Philly+Pittsburgh are more Dem than the 3Cs combined.

Well more Democratic, and I think Pennsylvania has a greater share of the population in those areas (including suburban counties) than Ohio does.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I made more calculations:

Pennsylvania 2020
1.
Philadelphia MSA - Biden+33 (1/3 of state)
Rest of Pennsylvania - Trump+15 (2/3 of state)

2.
Philadelphia MSA - Biden+33 (33% of state)
Pittsburgh MSA - Trump+2 (19.5% of state)
Rest of Pennsylvania - Trump+20 (47.5% of state)

3.
Philadelphia MSA - Biden+33 (33% of state)
Pittsburgh MSA - Trump+2 (19.5% of state)
Allentown-Bethlehem MSA - Biden+1 (5.5% of state)
Harrisburg MSA - Trump+5 (4.5% of state)
Scranton-Wilkes Barre MSA - Trump+12 (4% of state)
Lancaster MSA - Trump+16 (4% of state)
York MSA - Trump+25 (3.5% of state)
Reading MSA - Trump+8 (3% of state)
Rest of Pennsylvania - Trump+31 (23% of state)

Ohio 2020
1.
Cleveland MSA - Biden+14 (18% of state)
Columbus MSA - Biden+8 (18% of state)
Rest of Ohio - Trump+19 (64% of state)

2.
Cleveland MSA - Biden+14 (18% of state)
Columbus MSA - Biden+8 (18% of state)
Cincinnati MSA - Trump+8 (15% of state)
Rest of Ohio - Trump+22 (49% of state)

3.
Cleveland MSA - Biden+14 (18% of state)
Columbus MSA - Biden+8 (18% of state)
Cincinnati MSA - Trump+8 (15% of state)
Dayton MSA - Trump+9 (7% of state)
Akron MSA - Biden+5 (6% of state)
Toledo MSA - Biden+4 (5.3% of state)
Youngstown MSA - Trump+6 (3.7% of state)
Canton MSA - Trump+21 (3.5% of state)
Rest of Ohio - Trump+42 (23.5% of state)

[both states have a pretty clear gap between the >400k metros and the <180k metros with the only exception being Erie, which I put in the "Rest" because I felt like it - if I separate it as well, Rest of Pennsylvania becomes Trump+34]

So:
Rural/micropolitan Ohio is somewhat more Republican than rural/micropolitan Pennsylvania.
Midsize metros in Ohio are actually on average somewhat more Democratic than those in Pennsylvania.
Cincy is somewhat smaller than P'burgh but also more Republican.
C'bus + Cleve combined are somewhat larger and MUCH less Democratic than Philly.

[King of Kensington]

The Cleveland-Pittsburgh difference is interesting.

The main differences seem to be:

Pittsburgh is a much whiter metro than Cleveland

Pittsburgh is Appalachian, Cleveland is Great Lakes/Yankee

Cleveland probably has a less working class white population in the metro, has some "liberal elite" or Main Line-esque type suburbs like Shaker Heights and Pepper Pike that I don't think Pittsburgh really has the equivalent of.

[Smash255]

The suburbs in Ohio are significantly more Republican than the PA suburbs, especially Philadelphia.   Other than Delaware County, Ohio (which is trending pretty heavily Dem) the educational attainment in the suburban counties in Ohio are relatively low, meanwhile the educational attainment in the suburban Philly counties are relatively high.   % with Bachelor's

Lake County Ohio 27.9%
Lorain County Ohio 24.0%
Butler County Ohio 29.8%
Clermont County, Ohio 28.0%
Delaware County Ohio 54.4%


Montgomery County PA 48.7%
Chester County, PA 51.8%
Delaware County, PA 38.3%
Bucks County PA, 40.5%

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The Cleveland-Pittsburgh difference is interesting.

The main differences seem to be:

Pittsburgh is a much whiter metro than Cleveland

Pittsburgh is Appalachian, Cleveland is Great Lakes/Yankee

Cleveland probably has a less working class white population in the metro, has some "liberal elite" or Main Line-esque type suburbs like Shaker Heights and Pepper Pike that I don't think Pittsburgh really has the equivalent of.

I don't think that "latte liberals" are totally inexistent in the Pittsburgh metro. I think the main difference is TEH COAL... there is nothing like Westmoreland or Washington counties (which are not exactly tiny counties) near Cleveland.

[lfromnj]

The Cleveland-Pittsburgh difference is interesting.

The main differences seem to be:

Pittsburgh is a much whiter metro than Cleveland

Pittsburgh is Appalachian, Cleveland is Great Lakes/Yankee

Cleveland probably has a less working class white population in the metro, has some "liberal elite" or Main Line-esque type suburbs like Shaker Heights and Pepper Pike that I don't think Pittsburgh really has the equivalent of.

I don't think that "latte liberals" are totally inexistent in the Pittsburgh metro. I think the main difference is TEH COAL... there is nothing like Westmoreland or Washington counties (which are not exactly tiny counties) near Cleveland.

The Pittsburgh metro is an incredibly diverse metro at least on a class scale that has been incredibly stable. Until 2020 most Democrats this century have only gone a 15% margin out of Alleghany county due to counter trends.

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/04/21/pennsylvanias-17th-congressional-district-a-sociocultural-and-political-analysis/

This is one of the best round ups on the different groups inside the metro besides Pittsburgh itself. A lot of populist small town areas but also a lot of super rich areas. And these areas are merely a few miles apart .

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Cleveland probably has a less working class white population in the metro, has some "liberal elite" or Main Line-esque type suburbs like Shaker Heights and Pepper Pike that I don't think Pittsburgh really has the equivalent of.

I doubt it. Pittsburgh--contrary to it's reputation--has one of the most "white collar" economic bases in the country. It's counterbalanced by a bunch of exurban coal country being in the MSA and a lower AA population.

[King of Kensington]

Talking about the metro though.  The city of Pittsburgh is more affluent/college-educated than the city of Cleveland but it's what 15% of the MSA?  It quickly gives way to coal country.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Talking about the metro though.  The city of Pittsburgh is more affluent/college-educated than the city of Cleveland but it's what 15% of the MSA?  It quickly gives way to coal country.

You have to include the inner burbs too, which brings it closer to 40% of the MSA. Places like Penn Hills and Mount Lebanon definitely are more "Main Line-esque" than anything in Cleveland,

[Sol]

Talking about the metro though.  The city of Pittsburgh is more affluent/college-educated than the city of Cleveland but it's what 15% of the MSA?  It quickly gives way to coal country.

You have to include the inner burbs too, which brings it closer to 40% of the MSA. Places like Penn Hills and Mount Lebanon definitely are more "Main Line-esque" than anything in Cleveland,

Idk isn't that basically the demographic in a lot of inner-line West side burbs of Cleveland?

[lfromnj]

Talking about the metro though.  The city of Pittsburgh is more affluent/college-educated than the city of Cleveland but it's what 15% of the MSA?  It quickly gives way to coal country.

You have to include the inner burbs too, which brings it closer to 40% of the MSA. Places like Penn Hills and Mount Lebanon definitely are more "Main Line-esque" than anything in Cleveland,

Idk isn't that basically the demographic in a lot of inner-line West side burbs of Cleveland?

Penn Hills seems more like Shaker Heights in Cleveland?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Rural areas also have something to do with it.

A lot of the rural counties in Pennsylvania have been solidly Republican pretty much since the Civil War, so Democrats have had little room to fall

Why is rural PA so strongly Republican? Not really familiar with the state

[Sol]

Rural areas also have something to do with it.

A lot of the rural counties in Pennsylvania have been solidly Republican pretty much since the Civil War, so Democrats have had little room to fall

Why is rural PA so strongly Republican? Not really familiar with the state

Outside of industrial/mining areas, rural Pennsylvania is very ancestrally Republican. Plus, it's Appalachian, so the rural tendencies there parallel West Virginia or the Southern Tier of NY.

[King of Kensington]

Maybe Cleveland's establishmentarian suburbs are just better known than Pittsburgh's?

[Sol]

Maybe Cleveland's establishmentarian suburbs are just better known than Pittsburgh's?

No, I think you're right--Pittsburgh has a lot of industrial and very poor suburbs along the rivers, while Cleveland has a more typical income distribution pattern.