1976 Presidential election: why was it so close?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

one word: Playboy.

Well, most Southern conservatives still voted for Carter. I doubt he would have won much bigger without the incident.

Also crazy to think about the "scandals" of the early days now compared Trump. Just like Poppy dared to check his watch during a debate.

??

Assuming you are referring to White Southern conservatives only here... Carter very likely lost the non-Hispanic White Southern vote in 1976, and considering that some White liberals existed... I have to give it a no.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

one word: Playboy.

Well, most Southern conservatives still voted for Carter. I doubt he would have won much bigger without the incident.

Also crazy to think about the "scandals" of the early days now compared Trump. Just like Poppy dared to check his watch during a debate.

??

Assuming you are referring to White Southern conservatives only here... Carter very likely lost the non-Hispanic White Southern vote in 1976, and considering that some White liberals existed... I have to give it a no.

At the very least, Ford won whites in Virginia, Oklahoma, Mississippi, and Texas. Probably Florida too.

He definitely won them in Florida and Louisiana. And he probably did in Alabama, North Carolina and South Carolina as well.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

There is a CBS/New York Times exit poll cited on Wikipedia which has "White South" going to Ford 52-46, although no link is provided.

Anyway, Carter won the former Confederacy by slightly more than 9%, and the Census-defined South by slightly less than 9%.
Considering the plausible ethnoracial demographics of the Southern electorate in 1976, I don't know why it should be unreasonable that Carter lost the non-Hispanic White vote (especially using the "former Confederacy" definition).
Right now I don't have the time and resources for more detailed or complex calculations.