1976 Presidential election: why was it so close? (user search)
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  1976 Presidential election: why was it so close? (search mode)
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Author Topic: 1976 Presidential election: why was it so close?  (Read 2300 times)
DabbingSanta
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« on: November 22, 2020, 06:33:00 PM »

It came down to the General Election Campaigns. Carter's, while brilliant in the primaries, was weak in the general, whereas Ford's was one of the best run campaigns by a losing candidate in history. If it weren't for the "Soviet Domination" gaffe, Ford might've pulled it off.

Definitely. Carter had a 32 point lead in July.  It was amazing how close it turned out.
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #1 on: November 23, 2020, 09:41:41 AM »


Well, most Southern conservatives still voted for Carter. I doubt he would have won much bigger without the incident.

Also crazy to think about the "scandals" of the early days now compared Trump. Just like Poppy dared to check his watch during a debate.

??

Assuming you are referring to White Southern conservatives only here... Carter very likely lost the non-Hispanic White Southern vote in 1976, and considering that some White liberals existed... I have to give it a no.

At the very least, Ford won whites in Virginia, Oklahoma, Mississippi, and Texas. Probably Florida too.

He definitely won them in Florida and Louisiana. And he probably did in Alabama, North Carolina and South Carolina as well.

Yup, this has been discussed before on this board. Carter apparently lost the white vote in the South, despite winning nearly all the counties. In reality, I think there should be a footnote here, as Carter did pretty damn well with rural whites — this was offset by losing badly in the suburbs.
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392676
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #2 on: November 23, 2020, 10:07:12 PM »


Looking at the county data I would have to agree with you.  That is one of the reasons why that thread stuck out so much in my mind.  It is amazing one could win so many rural counties yet still "lose" the white vote.  Carter was the last Democrat to win many white southerner's votes.  His outsider status really resonated in the region.
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #3 on: November 24, 2020, 05:45:35 PM »

There is a CBS/New York Times exit poll cited on Wikipedia which has "White South" going to Ford 52-46, although no link is provided.

Anyway, Carter won the former Confederacy by slightly more than 9%, and the Census-defined South by slightly less than 9%.
Considering the plausible ethnoracial demographics of the Southern electorate in 1976, I don't know why it should be unreasonable that Carter lost the non-Hispanic White vote (especially using the "former Confederacy" definition).
Right now I don't have the time and resources for more detailed or complex calculations.

Fair enough.  It is the county maps that make it deceiving. But I guess the same could be said today about Democratic states that only have a half dozen or so counties vote for the winner. 😛
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