Now that Vigo County is Gone

[DabbingSanta]

Now that Vigo seems to be safe R, we need to make a new list of counties we can follow. I think there was another thread somewhere but I couldn't find it, so here's another one 😂

Below is a list I composed of the longest running bellweather counties in America. Big help to Ballotpedia's "Boomerang Pivot" article on counties that voted D-D-R-D — there's only 22 of them.

Clallam, WA    1980
Only got two elections wrong since 1920: 1968 and 1976

Clay, MN       1992
Only got three elections wrong since 1924: 1960, 1968, and 1988

Blaine, MT       1992
Before 1988, it also voted for every winner from 1920-1984.

Kent, DE       1996
Since 1948, has only voted for the losing candidate once (1992).

Hillsborough, NH 1996
Safe Republican county before 1996.

Door, WI       1996
Safe Republican county before 1996.

[mileslunn]

Clallam county is interesting as fairly rural but on West Coast and a mix of rural west coast liberals and more blue collar types that are swinging away from Democrats. 

[Red Wall]

All these counties voting for Trump under a pv loss means most of them could easily lose bellwether status under a narrower dem win, meaning they are probably just a couple cycles behind Vigo and Valencia.

Demo wise Clallam doesn't scream future swing county but Biden did well there. County has been mostly around R+3 to R+4. In 2020 it will be at worst R+2. Clay is whiter so I don't like its bellwether prospects much. Blaine so far tracking the national vote and at worst will be R+1 so it's likely to keep it. Kent essentially plays a moderator role between safe D New Castle and safe R Sussex and voted like the country as a whole even with Biden being for DE.

One people are forgetting: Pinellas, FL. It only missed in 2000 since 1980.

[One Term Floridian]

Lol we’re just not gonna get bellwether counties anymore in a few elections. Things are getting so damn polarized.

We might as well already call all of these Bellsouth counties.

[Bootes Void]

Pinellas county Fl is a good bellwether county

[DabbingSanta]

I just realized I have been spelling bellwether wrong all this time. Oops!

we’re just not gonna get bellwether counties anymore in a few elections

I don't think this is true. I think certain supermajority white bellwethers will die off like Vigo did and others which are more reflective of the nation's demographics will continue the trend. Blaine County, for example, is only 53% white. There's a large native population there.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I just realized I have been spelling bellwether wrong all this time. Oops!

we’re just not gonna get bellwether counties anymore in a few elections

I don't think this is true. I think certain supermajority white bellwethers will die off like Vigo did and others which are more reflective of the nation's demographics will continue the trend. Blaine County, for example, is only 53% white. There's a large native population there.

Alas, the Boroughs and Census Areas of Alaska are completely, entirely and utterly disregarded, disparaged and disdained by the forum community - but they could become the new bellwether county-equivalents in the near future, for the same reason as you cited for Blaine County.

I can't wait to get to informed about the Haines Borough results, for instance, as I'm eager to know if it has retained its anti-bellwether status.

[DabbingSanta]

I just realized I have been spelling bellwether wrong all this time. Oops!

we’re just not gonna get bellwether counties anymore in a few elections

I don't think this is true. I think certain supermajority white bellwethers will die off like Vigo did and others which are more reflective of the nation's demographics will continue the trend. Blaine County, for example, is only 53% white. There's a large native population there.

Alas, the Boroughs and Census Areas of Alaska are completely, entirely and utterly disregarded, disparaged and disdained by the forum community - but they could become the new bellwether county-equivalents in the near future, for the same reason as you cited for Blaine County.

I can't wait to get to informed about the Haines Borough results, for instance, as I'm eager to know if it has retained its anti-bellwether status.

I think the only reason for this is because a lot of the county level data is not readily available, at least on Atlas.