Far too early to say, but if his current popularity persists (not remotely guaranteed) then he's favored.
It really could be anything from a comfortable win to a full-on Blanching. Just have to wait and see.
I don't think Beshear, if he holds on, is going to win by more than 5%, or even 3% if he's lucky. A Beshear victory would probably look very similar to John Bel Edwards' reelection in Louisiana last year. As 2020 has given further proof of, Republican states aren't willing to give sweeping mandates to Democratic politicians anymore, like they used to in the past, and certainly not like the sweeping mandates Vermont, Massachusetts, and Maryland have given to Republican Governors in 2018 and 2020.
I'd call 5% comfortable. I doubt a landslide is a possibility, but Dems can still win in R states.
Hopefully polarization goes down a bit with Trump out of office as well.
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