Ky Gov: Andy Beshear 2023

[Frenchrepublican]

This far out, I'd favor him based on his popularity, though it won't be a slam dunk. Off-year elections often have different dynamics.

He is not that popular, yeah Quinnipiac gave him a +29 approval rate but the same poll had Trump winning the state by only 9 points.

[Frenchrepublican]

Far too early to say.

He is certainly vulnerable but he is not doomed either.

The problems for him is that now that Biden is president turnout among democrats will likely be lower in off year elections (turnout was disproportionately high in Louisville and Lexington in 2019 compared to the rest of the state), also it's unlikely he will face a opponent as much toxic than Bevin.

Besides contrary to Edwards Beshear is not exactly a moderate/blue-dog democrat, he has governed as a mainstrem liberal so his crossover appeal could be more limited (for the record I doubt that Edwards would have won had he not broken with his party on abortion).