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December 01, 2020, 04:31:25 PM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  Ky Gov: Andy Beshear 2023
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Question: Will Andy Beshear be re-elected?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Total Voters: 59

Author Topic: Ky Gov: Andy Beshear 2023  (Read 917 times)
EastwoodS
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« on: November 22, 2020, 12:55:13 PM »
« edited: November 22, 2020, 01:50:34 PM by EastwoodS »

Will Andy Beshear be re-elected in 2023?
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Atlanta 1997 World Champs
bronz4141
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« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2020, 01:27:16 PM »

I think so, yes. Beshear drags the Democratic AG candidate to defeat Daniel Cameron as well
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #2 on: November 22, 2020, 01:29:21 PM »

This far out, I'd favor him based on his popularity, though it won't be a slam dunk. Off-year elections often have different dynamics.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #3 on: November 22, 2020, 01:34:38 PM »

My very early guess is that itíll play out like LA-GOV 2019 but with the parties reversed. Still a wide range of outcomes this far out, though.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #4 on: November 22, 2020, 01:39:44 PM »

This far out, I'd favor him based on his popularity, though it won't be a slam dunk. Off-year elections often have different dynamics.

He is not that popular, yeah Quinnipiac gave him a +29 approval rate but the same poll had Trump winning the state by only 9 points.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #5 on: November 22, 2020, 01:50:38 PM »
« Edited: November 22, 2020, 01:57:37 PM by Frenchrepublican »

Far too early to say.

He is certainly vulnerable but he is not doomed either.

The problems for him is that now that Biden is president turnout among democrats will likely be lower in off year elections (turnout was disproportionately high in Louisville and Lexington in 2019 compared to the rest of the state), also it's unlikely he will face a opponent as much toxic than Bevin.

Besides contrary to Edwards Beshear is not exactly a moderate/blue-dog democrat, he has governed as a mainstrem liberal so his crossover appeal could be more limited (for the record I doubt that Edwards would have won had he not broken with his party on abortion).
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discovolante
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« Reply #6 on: November 22, 2020, 03:11:20 PM »

Governors with functionally little power serving as quasi-checks on entrenched dominant-party legislatures tend to be fairly popular, and you can't quite target them for an unpopular agenda when they haven't been able to really accomplish any of it. With the obvious caveat of having no idea what the partisan atmosphere and the wake of the Biden admin will look like in 2023, I'd call it Lean D.
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« Reply #7 on: November 22, 2020, 03:34:59 PM »

Beshear could win or lose but you are asking this question three years too early
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #8 on: November 22, 2020, 03:43:40 PM »

I hope not, and I tend to think not.  That being said, the Beshear name counts for something in Kentucky.  He'll be running against a specific Republican, and that specific Republican may have baggage that could sink him in an election that will not be as nationalized as one that occurs during Federal Election years.

I personally think Beshear won because Mitch McConnell worked behind the scenes to do in Bevin.  Beshear won't have that working for him next time out.  Nor will Beshear have the perception that his is a moderate Kentucky Democrat different from the National Democratic Party Woketopians.  He's gone out on a limb on those issues and it will remain to be seen how much of that he can downplay after three (3) years. 

Beshear's still in his first year in office, so he's got plenty of opportunity to shore up his right flank.  He's not a goner, not by any means.  Being re-elected won't be easy for him, however.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #9 on: November 22, 2020, 04:13:59 PM »

It's easy to say with Biden in the White House and with him barely dispatching Bevin, he's not favored to win. But, popularity and candidate selection can go a long way in a Governor's race (unlike most state legislature and federal races). It's still way too early to get an idea of how it'll go. If you forced me though, I would say he wouldn't, just because Kentucky R's have a decent selection of candidates now.
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bagelman
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« Reply #10 on: November 22, 2020, 04:15:48 PM »

Leaning No but it's way too far out to be sure about anything.
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Pericles
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« Reply #11 on: November 22, 2020, 04:23:12 PM »

He's probably a slight underdog despite his unpopularity due to Kentucky's partisanship and the fact that 2023 is likely to be worse year to run as a Democrat than 2019. Hopefully he does pull it off though.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #12 on: November 22, 2020, 04:32:00 PM »

He's probably a slight underdog despite his unpopularity due to Kentucky's partisanship and the fact that 2023 is likely to be worse year to run as a Democrat than 2019. Hopefully he does pull it off though.
Iíve also heard that Kentucky is trying to move away from odd years elections after 2023. This wonít be particularly helpful for Democrats as the Gubernatorial race becomes more nationalized and voters vote the same down ballot.
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One Term Floridian
swamiG
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« Reply #13 on: November 22, 2020, 04:34:08 PM »

Baby Beshear is probably the slight favorite as of now
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Pericles
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« Reply #14 on: November 22, 2020, 04:34:58 PM »

He's probably a slight underdog despite his unpopularity due to Kentucky's partisanship and the fact that 2023 is likely to be worse year to run as a Democrat than 2019. Hopefully he does pull it off though.
Iíve also heard that Kentucky is trying to move away from odd years elections after 2023. This wonít be particularly helpful for Democrats as the Gubernatorial race becomes more nationalized and voters vote the same down ballot.

Yeah, but it's probably good policy at least. Off-year elections seem to mean lower turnout, and it's a good thing to have as many people as possible participating in the political process.
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #15 on: November 23, 2020, 01:47:19 AM »

Far too early to say, but if his current popularity persists (not remotely guaranteed) then he's favored.

It really could be anything from a comfortable win to a full-on Blanching. Just have to wait and see.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #16 on: November 23, 2020, 07:54:46 AM »

Unless his opponent is Matt Bevin again, no.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #17 on: November 23, 2020, 09:28:25 AM »

Unless his opponent is Matt Bevin again, no.
Oh, dear lord, please no. However, I genuinely would not put it past the Republican Party to lose a potentially very winnable election.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #18 on: November 23, 2020, 11:26:54 AM »

Far too early to say, but if his current popularity persists (not remotely guaranteed) then he's favored.

It really could be anything from a comfortable win to a full-on Blanching. Just have to wait and see.

I don't think Beshear, if he holds on, is going to win by more than 5%, or even 3% if he's lucky. A Beshear victory would probably look very similar to John Bel Edwards' reelection in Louisiana last year. As 2020 has given further proof of, Republican states aren't willing to give sweeping mandates to Democratic politicians anymore, like they used to in the past, and certainly not like the sweeping mandates Vermont, Massachusetts, and Maryland have given to Republican Governors in 2018 and 2020.
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olawakandi
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« Reply #19 on: November 23, 2020, 11:31:33 AM »

Yes, he is doing a fine job, with Covid, as Gov of KY, and until we know whom his R opponent is, he is gonna get reelected. D's do have a Southern strategy but it's not the 413 map, GA, NC are in flux, D's need to stop writing off the South. Look Cooper won
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #20 on: November 23, 2020, 12:06:41 PM »

Far too early to say, but if his current popularity persists (not remotely guaranteed) then he's favored.

It really could be anything from a comfortable win to a full-on Blanching. Just have to wait and see.

I don't think Beshear, if he holds on, is going to win by more than 5%, or even 3% if he's lucky. A Beshear victory would probably look very similar to John Bel Edwards' reelection in Louisiana last year. As 2020 has given further proof of, Republican states aren't willing to give sweeping mandates to Democratic politicians anymore, like they used to in the past, and certainly not like the sweeping mandates Vermont, Massachusetts, and Maryland have given to Republican Governors in 2018 and 2020.

I'd call 5% comfortable. I doubt a landslide is a possibility, but Dems can still win in R states.

Hopefully polarization goes down a bit with Trump out of office as well.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #21 on: November 23, 2020, 12:32:26 PM »

Unlikely, but not impossible.  He might seek a Biden admin appointment instead.

There is a significant "only won because his/her opponent was scandalized/crazy" penalty in the next election against a more normal candidate.  Beshear won by less than 1% against Bevin, so I doubt he stands much of a chance against a generic KY R with Biden in the WH. 
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walleye26
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« Reply #22 on: November 27, 2020, 10:14:24 PM »

Hereís the real question: if Beshear wins re-election, and Harris is the nominee in 24, is he a VP pick?
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #23 on: November 28, 2020, 08:07:56 PM »

Hereís the real question: if Beshear wins re-election, and Harris is the nominee in 24, is he a VP pick?

I hope so. Would be an excellent pick.
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
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« Reply #24 on: November 28, 2020, 08:13:17 PM »

Hereís the real question: if Beshear wins re-election, and Harris is the nominee in 24, is he a VP pick?

I hope so. Would be an excellent pick.

VP? No he should challenge her for the nomination. Heíll have proven himself a candidate with a far stronger electoral record than her.
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