Ky Gov: Andy Beshear 2023

[Mr. Smith]

Here’s the real question: if Beshear wins re-election, and Harris is the nominee in 24, is he a VP pick?

I hope so. Would be an excellent pick.

VP? No he should challenge her for the nomination. He’ll have proven himself a candidate with a far stronger electoral record than her.

Or he ends up like Steve Bullock.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Here’s the real question: if Beshear wins re-election, and Harris is the nominee in 24, is he a VP pick?

I hope so. Would be an excellent pick.

VP? No he should challenge her for the nomination. He’ll have proven himself a candidate with a far stronger electoral record than her.

Or he ends up like Steve Bullock.

Entirely possible, but we won’t know until he tries. We need our best and brightest to run in ‘24. We gain nothing but an untested and weak nominee if we allow Kamala a coronation.

[KYRockefeller]

I'm leaning no for several reasons.

First, Beshear beat a relatively unpopular Bevin by only 5,000 votes.  If Bevin had not lost so much ground in traditional GOP era in Northern Kentucky and Warren County then he would have won another term.  I'll always argue that if Rocky Adkins beat Beshear in the primary that he would've crushed Bevin.

Second, the GOP is likely to nominate someone less controversial than Bevin, whether that be Cameron (who I think is waiting for McConnell's Senate seat) or Ryan Quarles, the latter of whom would galvanize turnout in rural areas.

And finally, even though Beshear has taken strong steps to limit COVID there is big COVID fatigue in the state and people are growing resentful on the orders on schools and businesses, especially with some of the protests in Louisville getting little criticism from the governor's office about gathering in the summer (which is where I think some of the national momentum for these orders fell apart).  The bad handling of unemployment during COVID may also be used against Beshear when he tries to use his handling as a campaign positive.

What will be telling is what the GOP super majority in the state legislature does when they meet in January.  There will be open fights with Beshear on a whole host of issues, many pandemic related, and it'll be interesting who comes out looking the worse for wear there.

I'd classify the race as a tossup due to Beshear's incumbency advantage.  He has a lot of fans, but many of those are outside the state and can't vote for him.  And he also is unlikely to get lucky like his father did of running for re-election against a weak challenger who was hated by his own party.

[AGA]

No

[Richard Slapper]

I wonder if he will win Elliott county.