Is Kemp now likely to lose re-election?

[forza nocta]

https://twitter.com/morningconsult/status/1335277159712174080?s=21

[S019]

I think Kemp narrowly loses w/o a runoff, the Democratic trend will be too strong for him to survive, imo, I'd say something like Abrams 50-49, but maybe a slightly less polarizing incumbent, like Raffensberger could hold on by like 50.5-49.5, I'd say it's a tossup, but I don't think Kemp wins outright again.

[tosk]

https://twitter.com/morningconsult/status/1335277159712174080?s=21

this is actually not as bad as I would've expected

[QAnonKelly]

I'd think he's slight underdog atm mostly because I think he's gonna get a primary challenge but it's certainly way too be early to be sure about anything.

[Samof94]

I'd think he's slight underdog atm mostly because I think he's gonna get a primary challenge but it's certainly way too be early to be sure about anything.

The “immigrant bus” guy seems like the type of politician lurking in the Georgia GOP.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

I think he and Raffensberger lose their primaries. Whether Democrats can actually win a midterm general in GA when they're in the white house is very unclear though.

This.

[QAnonKelly]

I'd think he's slight underdog atm mostly because I think he's gonna get a primary challenge but it's certainly way too be early to be sure about anything.

The “immigrant bus” guy seems like the type of politician lurking in the Georgia GOP.

He's on probation so idt he can run.

[Samof94]

I'd think he's slight underdog atm mostly because I think he's gonna get a primary challenge but it's certainly way too be early to be sure about anything.

The “immigrant bus” guy seems like the type of politician lurking in the Georgia GOP.

He's on probation so idt he can run.

Not him, but someone like him. Does Georgia have some popular pastor who could run for Governor?

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

The logical primary challenger to Kemp is Doug Collins.

Kemp went from a hero to a zero.  Raffensberger is a bureaucrat who looks like he cucked out with a Consent Decree that he didn't need to sign.  This cuck image spread to Kemp when it became clear that he signed off on the Consent Decree relaxing mail-in ballot verification as well.  Kemp now looks like a guy who rolled over to Stacey Abrams when he didn't have to.  He looks like Stacey Abrams "owned" him.  And, in fact, she did; Kemp (and Raffensberger) were owned by a mentally unstable losing candidate who still insists that she won the 2018 election. 

Nothing hurts a Gubenatorial candidate more than the appearance of being "weak".  Kemp looks weak all around, being pushed around by Stacey Abrams, then being pushed around by Donald Trump.  He's hiding in a bit of a Bidenesque way during the present controversy.  I would not want to be in Kemp's shoes.  His public image has suffered amongst his base, and I would not be surprised if he opts to not run for re-election, or to run for the Senate should Warnock win.

[MATTROSE94]

The logical primary challenger to Kemp is Doug Collins.

Kemp went from a hero to a zero.  Raffensberger is a bureaucrat who looks like he cucked out with a Consent Decree that he didn't need to sign.  This cuck image spread to Kemp when it became clear that he signed off on the Consent Decree relaxing mail-in ballot verification as well.  Kemp now looks like a guy who rolled over to Stacey Abrams when he didn't have to.  He looks like Stacey Abrams "owned" him.  And, in fact, she did; Kemp (and Raffensberger) were owned by a mentally unstable losing candidate who still insists that she won the 2018 election. 

Nothing hurts a Gubenatorial candidate more than the appearance of being "weak".  Kemp looks weak all around, being pushed around by Stacey Abrams, then being pushed around by Donald Trump.  He's hiding in a bit of a Bidenesque way during the present controversy.  I would not want to be in Kemp's shoes.  His public image has suffered amongst his base, and I would not be surprised if he opts to not run for re-election, or to run for the Senate should Warnock win.

Aren’t Doug Collins and Stacy Abrams actually somewhat friendly with each other outside of politics? I recall hearing that somewhere.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

The logical primary challenger to Kemp is Doug Collins.

Kemp went from a hero to a zero.  Raffensberger is a bureaucrat who looks like he cucked out with a Consent Decree that he didn't need to sign.  This cuck image spread to Kemp when it became clear that he signed off on the Consent Decree relaxing mail-in ballot verification as well.  Kemp now looks like a guy who rolled over to Stacey Abrams when he didn't have to.  He looks like Stacey Abrams "owned" him.  And, in fact, she did; Kemp (and Raffensberger) were owned by a mentally unstable losing candidate who still insists that she won the 2018 election. 

Nothing hurts a Gubenatorial candidate more than the appearance of being "weak".  Kemp looks weak all around, being pushed around by Stacey Abrams, then being pushed around by Donald Trump.  He's hiding in a bit of a Bidenesque way during the present controversy.  I would not want to be in Kemp's shoes.  His public image has suffered amongst his base, and I would not be surprised if he opts to not run for re-election, or to run for the Senate should Warnock win.

Aren’t Doug Collins and Stacy Abrams actually somewhat friendly with each other outside of politics? I recall hearing that somewhere.

Possibly.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Raffensberger is a bureaucrat who looks like he cucked out with a Consent Decree that he didn't need to sign.  This cuck image spread to Kemp when it became clear that he signed off on the Consent Decree relaxing mail-in ballot verification as well.

Fuzzy, seriously, come on, you're not going to dethrone Sanchez as the most iconic alt-lite R-FL avatar. You can give it a rest.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Am I the only one uncomfortable with a 69 year old using the word "cuck"?

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Am I the only one uncomfortable with a 69 year old using the word "cuck"?

You are not.

[Calthrina950]

Am I the only one uncomfortable with a 69 year old using the word "cuck"?

You are not.

I've noticed this recently with Fuzzy Bear. Isn't the term "cuck" used by younger, right-leaning types on websites such as Breitbart and the now defunct #The Donald? Particularly those who have views that could be described as...odious...to use a euphemism?

[QAnonKelly]

Am I the only one uncomfortable with a 69 year old using the word "cuck"?

No, sir.

[skbl17]

I don't think the current absentee ballot regime survives to 2022. At a minimum, I expect a photo ID requirement to be introduced, which both the embattled Secretary of State and the Governor have called for. It's possible the GOP may go even further and establish a one-dropbox-per-county rule, or go for the nuclear option and eliminate no-excuse absentee voting for all but the disabled, elderly, and UOCAVA voters.

We'll see if this amounts to anything - kneejerk legislative pushes (such as religious liberty legislation in the aftermath of Obergefell) have flopped before - but it looks like we may have our answer: the GOP (in the state Senate, at least) is going for the nuclear option for 2022.

https://twitter.com/RElliotWSB/status/1336392637687984133

Here's the statement itself. It's quite a read, but the bit in question comes near the end:

As soon as we may constitutionally convene, we will reform our election laws to secure our electoral process by eliminating at-will absentee voting. We will require photo identification for absentee voting for cause, and we will crack down on ballot harvesting by outlawing drop boxes.

[Agonized-Statism]

What happens with Fox News might actually be a good gauge. If Fox is in dire straits in two years, then we'll know the extent of Trump's influence on Republicans and his ability to turn them against intra-party figures and outlets.

[AGA]

Considering Trump's been attacking him and trends, I would say he is more likely to lose than win.

[Virginiá]

Meh, with regards to eliminating no-excuse absentee voting, it's not that big of a deal if they still keep the same level of in-person early voting. Seeing what Trump did to the USPS this year has definitely made me reconsider the viability of that method of voting.. Not that it's any less useful or safe, but that it's vulnerable to a president who cares so much about winning at any cost that they will literally blow up the country's mail delivery service to even try and gain an advantage.

So if they end absentee voting, people will just shift to in-person early voting. I don't expect much of a partisan disparity in turnout reductions, if there are any.

[Adam Griffin]

Meh, with regards to eliminating no-excuse absentee voting, it's not that big of a deal if they still keep the same level of in-person early voting. Seeing what Trump did to the USPS this year has definitely made me reconsider the viability of that method of voting.. Not that it's any less useful or safe, but that it's vulnerable to a president who cares so much about winning at any cost that they will literally blow up the country's mail delivery service to even try and gain an advantage.

So if they end absentee voting, people will just shift to in-person early voting. I don't expect much of a partisan disparity in turnout reductions, if there are any.

Yeah, but I'm not sure what they mean by "absentee voting". In Georgia, early in-person voting is legally referred to as "absentee in-person" and mail voting is "absentee by mail". Early in-person voters even have to sign an absentee form when voting via this method...so it's quite possible when they say they're aiming to eliminate "absentee voting at will", they're talking about reverting completely to an Election Day voting system (minus "cause").

It'll be easier to get something like this through the Senate than the House based on sheer partisanship (they have 63% of the seats in the former, while only 58% in the latter), so not surprising it'd start there.

[Virginiá]

That would be much worse, yes. Wouldn't put it past them. I don't expect this will be the only state "tightening" up election rules over the next 2 years.

Nothing like a reliably Republican state trending to the opposition to spur the governing party into actually trying to rig elections to stay in power.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

Raffensberger is a bureaucrat who looks like he cucked out with a Consent Decree that he didn't need to sign.  This cuck image spread to Kemp when it became clear that he signed off on the Consent Decree relaxing mail-in ballot verification as well.

Fuzzy, seriously, come on, you're not going to dethrone Sanchez as the most iconic alt-lite R-FL avatar. You can give it a rest.

There was no reason, other than to stop lawsuits, to sign that "consent decree" which represents a change to state election law not authorized by the State Legislatures.

If it were Brian Kemp making changes to how Georgia's elections are administered unilaterally in a way that didn't favor Democrats, you'd be all over that, and rightly so.  That consent decree needed to be ratified by the State Legislature and it wasn't.  As did every single rule change in every state that implemented mail-in balloting or changed the rules as to mail-in balloting that did not first obtain the approval of the State Legislature for such a change.

This is not some trivial matter; it is a valid Constitutional issue.  It is an issue that protects the ordinary voter from an executive unilaterally changing rules as to how people vote.  The Framers of our Constitution were well aware that "change" wasn't always a good thing.  The relaxing of standards on signature verification on mail-in balloting is never a good thing; that's one irregularity that happened in Georgia.  Everyone's fine with such irregularities when they go their way.  That's also the problem with Constitutional Rights.  Everyone loves THEIR Constitutional Rights, but not so much the Constitutional Rights of others.

This issue is, indeed, bigger than Kemp and bigger than Trump.  It is a legitimate issue of who, exactly, makes the rules for elections.  It is fair to say that it skews the results of elections when some counties follow those rules and some counties don't.

[Chips]

I'd say he has roughly an even chance as of now but things could change.