PA SEN 2022 : Costello (R) and Houlahan (D) looking at a run

[kwabbit]

I suspect that Houlahan knows PA is losing a seat sees how her seat is surrounded by red turf on all but one side and sees the writing on the wall of what will happen in redistricting.

If the Dems and GOP can negotiate, they can push Houlahan into DelCo, Scanlon into West Philly, Evans into North Philly, Boyle into Lower Bucks, and Fitzpatrick into Berks. This should make all parties happier.

Would the GOP or Fitzpatrick want that change? Right now Fitzpatrick has a pretty strong hold over his seat and Berks isn't that much to the right of Bucks where that would necessarily be advantageous for him. Him abandoning his home territory of Bucks when he wins comfortably would be unlikely, even if he would be marginally more safe. Also, Fitz extends GOP house control in a district where they wouldn't hold control without him so him occupying that area is beneficial for the GOP. I'd imagine they'll give Fitz Upper Bucks and some of Upper Montgomery. That would make him safer and allow for the PHI districts to expand. Although I think he would win in most potential collar districts that didn't include some of the city itself.

[kwabbit]

I suspect that Houlahan knows PA is losing a seat sees how her seat is surrounded by red turf on all but one side and sees the writing on the wall of what will happen in redistricting.

If the Dems and GOP can negotiate, they can push Houlahan into DelCo, Scanlon into West Philly, Evans into North Philly, Boyle into Lower Bucks, and Fitzpatrick into Berks. This should make all parties happier.

Would the GOP or Fitzpatrick want that change? Right now Fitzpatrick has a pretty strong hold over his seat and Berks isn't that much to the right of Bucks where that would necessarily be advantageous for him.

Honestly, I don't know. One thing that could force it: giving Scanlon West Philly creates a second AA VRA district and I bet PADems would have an easy time suing the PA supreme court for it. I'd expect that to take precedence over keeping Bucks intact. Although the PVI on a NE Philly-Lower Bucks district could be pretty shaky for Boyle to hold it.

Yeah, although PA-1 ceding some of lower Bucks to a NE Philly district and then expanding to into more of Northern Montgomery County would make it even safer for Fitzpatrick. Lower Bucks is pretty strongly Dem. I don't think there's a way for Dems to avoid a Fitzpatrick held district in Bucks/MontCo.

[kwabbit]

I suspect that Houlahan knows PA is losing a seat sees how her seat is surrounded by red turf on all but one side and sees the writing on the wall of what will happen in redistricting.

If the Dems and GOP can negotiate, they can push Houlahan into DelCo, Scanlon into West Philly, Evans into North Philly, Boyle into Lower Bucks, and Fitzpatrick into Berks. This should make all parties happier.

Would the GOP or Fitzpatrick want that change? Right now Fitzpatrick has a pretty strong hold over his seat and Berks isn't that much to the right of Bucks where that would necessarily be advantageous for him.

Honestly, I don't know. One thing that could force it: giving Scanlon West Philly creates a second AA VRA district and I bet PADems would have an easy time suing the PA supreme court for it. I'd expect that to take precedence over keeping Bucks intact. Although the PVI on a NE Philly-Lower Bucks district could be pretty shaky for Boyle to hold it.

Yeah, although PA-1 ceding some of lower Bucks to a NE Philly district and then expanding to into more of Northern Montgomery County would make it even safer for Fitzpatrick. Lower Bucks is pretty strongly Dem. I don't think there's a way for Dems to avoid a Fitzpatrick held district in Bucks/MontCo.

Huh? Lower Bucks isn't that Dem anymore. Mid Bucks and Mid/Upper Montgomery are much stronger for Democrats nowadays.

Anyway, I'm thinking of a incumbent protection-mander for Houlahan, not trying to draw out Fitzpatrick.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1329859731150807041/photo/1
Lower Bucks is less Dem than it used to be, but assuming still more Dem than the part of Northern Montgomery adjacent to Bucks. Assuming if Fitz district moves Northward and needed to incorporate more of Montgomery it would probably draw in parts less Dem than what it was ceding to NE philly district. Chester is growing quickly, quickly trendin Dem and Houlahan has won comfortably the past few times, so I don't think she's in any danger, even in a GOP wave.