PA SEN 2022 : Costello (R) and Houlahan (D) looking at a run

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I suspect that Houlahan knows PA is losing a seat sees how her seat is surrounded by red turf on all but one side and sees the writing on the wall of what will happen in redistricting.

If the Dems and GOP can negotiate, they can push Houlahan into DelCo, Scanlon into West Philly, Evans into North Philly, Boyle into Lower Bucks, and Fitzpatrick into Berks. This should make all parties happier.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I suspect that Houlahan knows PA is losing a seat sees how her seat is surrounded by red turf on all but one side and sees the writing on the wall of what will happen in redistricting.

If the Dems and GOP can negotiate, they can push Houlahan into DelCo, Scanlon into West Philly, Evans into North Philly, Boyle into Lower Bucks, and Fitzpatrick into Berks. This should make all parties happier.

Would the GOP or Fitzpatrick want that change? Right now Fitzpatrick has a pretty strong hold over his seat and Berks isn't that much to the right of Bucks where that would necessarily be advantageous for him.

Honestly, I don't know. One thing that could force it: giving Scanlon West Philly creates a second AA VRA district and I bet PADems would have an easy time suing the PA supreme court for it. I'd expect that to take precedence over keeping Bucks intact. Although the PVI on a NE Philly-Lower Bucks district could be pretty shaky for Boyle to hold it.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I suspect that Houlahan knows PA is losing a seat sees how her seat is surrounded by red turf on all but one side and sees the writing on the wall of what will happen in redistricting.

If the Dems and GOP can negotiate, they can push Houlahan into DelCo, Scanlon into West Philly, Evans into North Philly, Boyle into Lower Bucks, and Fitzpatrick into Berks. This should make all parties happier.

Would the GOP or Fitzpatrick want that change? Right now Fitzpatrick has a pretty strong hold over his seat and Berks isn't that much to the right of Bucks where that would necessarily be advantageous for him.

Honestly, I don't know. One thing that could force it: giving Scanlon West Philly creates a second AA VRA district and I bet PADems would have an easy time suing the PA supreme court for it. I'd expect that to take precedence over keeping Bucks intact. Although the PVI on a NE Philly-Lower Bucks district could be pretty shaky for Boyle to hold it.

Yeah, although PA-1 ceding some of lower Bucks to a NE Philly district and then expanding to into more of Northern Montgomery County would make it even safer for Fitzpatrick. Lower Bucks is pretty strongly Dem. I don't think there's a way for Dems to avoid a Fitzpatrick held district in Bucks/MontCo.

Huh? Lower Bucks isn't that Dem anymore. Mid Bucks and Mid/Upper Montgomery are much stronger for Democrats nowadays.

Anyway, I'm thinking of a incumbent protection-mander for Houlahan, not trying to draw out Fitzpatrick.