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December 03, 2020, 02:41:37 AM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

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  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  PA SEN 2022 : Costello (R) and Houlahan (D) looking at a run
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Author Topic: PA SEN 2022 : Costello (R) and Houlahan (D) looking at a run  (Read 535 times)
Frenchrepublican
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« on: November 22, 2020, 12:43:51 PM »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/democrats-suburbs-senate-2022/2020/11/21/107a2616-2b80-11eb-8fa2-06e7cbb145c0_story.html

''Fresh off another double-digit victory there, Houlahan is among those considering a run for the Senate in two years — just as Costello is considering coming out of retirement to run for the GOP nomination.''
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2020, 01:32:11 PM »

Chrissy Houlahan and Tom Nelson next Senators from PA and WI with reelected Gov Evers and Gov Fetterman, great news
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #2 on: November 22, 2020, 01:37:53 PM »

So they mention a Whole Foods and a Cracker Barrel. I wonder if a certain person may have had something to do with that...
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #3 on: November 22, 2020, 01:39:54 PM »

Lol Costello

He'd be lucky to get 30% in a primary
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Mike Madigan for Illinois House Speaker!
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« Reply #4 on: November 22, 2020, 01:40:38 PM »

Costello would be a formidable GOP candidate and I suspect that Houlahan knows PA is losing a seat sees how her seat is surrounded by red turf on all but one side and sees the writing on the wall of what will happen in redistricting.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: November 22, 2020, 01:45:10 PM »

Costello is definitely from the wrong part of the state/wing of the party. Even Fitzpatrick would have a better chance of winning a primary.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #6 on: November 22, 2020, 01:49:10 PM »

Costello is definitely from the wrong part of the state/wing of the party. Even Fitzpatrick would have a better chance of winning a primary.

At least Fitzpatrick has carved himself a nice position with police unions and unions in general. Costello is like Romneyism x1000.
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Blairite
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« Reply #7 on: November 22, 2020, 02:28:20 PM »

I suspect that Houlahan knows PA is losing a seat sees how her seat is surrounded by red turf on all but one side and sees the writing on the wall of what will happen in redistricting.

If the Dems and GOP can negotiate, they can push Houlahan into DelCo, Scanlon into West Philly, Evans into North Philly, Boyle into Lower Bucks, and Fitzpatrick into Berks. This should make all parties happier.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #8 on: November 22, 2020, 02:33:49 PM »
« Edited: November 22, 2020, 05:25:53 PM by Young Conservative »

Costello's moderate nature is not even what is bothersome about this. It is his cowardice in retiring instead of making at tough run for reelection and actually having to prove that he can withstand a tough race.

Hard pass. We have plenty of great candidates in the PA state legislature.
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Mexican Wolf
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« Reply #9 on: November 22, 2020, 02:45:40 PM »

I'd be in full support of Houlahan if she decided to run for the Senate, but I feel she'll face tough odds in a primary if Shapiro or Fetterman enters the race as well (I think she and Lamb would stand an equal chance of winning).

I'm also skeptical of Costello winning the R primary, seeing as he'll have been out of office for four years by that point. I'd start the general out as a tossup but slightly Republican-favored.

Not sure I agree with the Whole Foods/Cracker Barrel division of Chester County, though. Honestly, I'd put the dividing line further west in Coatesville because Coatesville, Thorndale, and Downingtown have more in common with Exton and West Chester (more urban, relatively more diverse, more Democratic) than they do with Sadsbury, Parkesburg, or Wagontown.
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Devils30
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« Reply #10 on: November 22, 2020, 02:55:48 PM »

Lamb would be the best Senate candidate. I don't think PA-6 is at very high risk, chances are a seat in western/central PA gets eliminated first. Considering Wolf has veto power, if I were the Dems I would try to get the state supreme court to draw something even better than the 2018 version and make the state leg/congress maps with a median of around D+2.
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #11 on: November 22, 2020, 03:22:27 PM »

Ryan Cost-hell-no
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kwabbit
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« Reply #12 on: November 22, 2020, 03:47:12 PM »

I suspect that Houlahan knows PA is losing a seat sees how her seat is surrounded by red turf on all but one side and sees the writing on the wall of what will happen in redistricting.

If the Dems and GOP can negotiate, they can push Houlahan into DelCo, Scanlon into West Philly, Evans into North Philly, Boyle into Lower Bucks, and Fitzpatrick into Berks. This should make all parties happier.
Would the GOP or Fitzpatrick want that change? Right now Fitzpatrick has a pretty strong hold over his seat and Berks isn't that much to the right of Bucks where that would necessarily be advantageous for him. Him abandoning his home territory of Bucks when he wins comfortably would be unlikely, even if he would be marginally more safe. Also, Fitz extends GOP house control in a district where they wouldn't hold control without him so him occupying that area is beneficial for the GOP. I'd imagine they'll give Fitz Upper Bucks and some of Upper Montgomery. That would make him safer and allow for the PHI districts to expand. Although I think he would win in most potential collar districts that didn't include some of the city itself.
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Blairite
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« Reply #13 on: November 22, 2020, 03:51:55 PM »

I suspect that Houlahan knows PA is losing a seat sees how her seat is surrounded by red turf on all but one side and sees the writing on the wall of what will happen in redistricting.

If the Dems and GOP can negotiate, they can push Houlahan into DelCo, Scanlon into West Philly, Evans into North Philly, Boyle into Lower Bucks, and Fitzpatrick into Berks. This should make all parties happier.
Would the GOP or Fitzpatrick want that change? Right now Fitzpatrick has a pretty strong hold over his seat and Berks isn't that much to the right of Bucks where that would necessarily be advantageous for him.

Honestly, I don't know. One thing that could force it: giving Scanlon West Philly creates a second AA VRA district and I bet PADems would have an easy time suing the PA supreme court for it. I'd expect that to take precedence over keeping Bucks intact. Although the PVI on a NE Philly-Lower Bucks district could be pretty shaky for Boyle to hold it.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #14 on: November 22, 2020, 04:59:46 PM »

I suspect that Houlahan knows PA is losing a seat sees how her seat is surrounded by red turf on all but one side and sees the writing on the wall of what will happen in redistricting.

If the Dems and GOP can negotiate, they can push Houlahan into DelCo, Scanlon into West Philly, Evans into North Philly, Boyle into Lower Bucks, and Fitzpatrick into Berks. This should make all parties happier.
Would the GOP or Fitzpatrick want that change? Right now Fitzpatrick has a pretty strong hold over his seat and Berks isn't that much to the right of Bucks where that would necessarily be advantageous for him.

Honestly, I don't know. One thing that could force it: giving Scanlon West Philly creates a second AA VRA district and I bet PADems would have an easy time suing the PA supreme court for it. I'd expect that to take precedence over keeping Bucks intact. Although the PVI on a NE Philly-Lower Bucks district could be pretty shaky for Boyle to hold it.
Yeah, although PA-1 ceding some of lower Bucks to a NE Philly district and then expanding to into more of Northern Montgomery County would make it even safer for Fitzpatrick. Lower Bucks is pretty strongly Dem. I don't think there's a way for Dems to avoid a Fitzpatrick held district in Bucks/MontCo.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #15 on: November 22, 2020, 05:02:22 PM »

I figured Houlahan would run at some point, she'd be a really good statewide candidate. PA Dems have an embarrassment of riches so it's gonna be sad to see them all go against each other.
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Blairite
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« Reply #16 on: November 22, 2020, 05:04:10 PM »

I suspect that Houlahan knows PA is losing a seat sees how her seat is surrounded by red turf on all but one side and sees the writing on the wall of what will happen in redistricting.

If the Dems and GOP can negotiate, they can push Houlahan into DelCo, Scanlon into West Philly, Evans into North Philly, Boyle into Lower Bucks, and Fitzpatrick into Berks. This should make all parties happier.
Would the GOP or Fitzpatrick want that change? Right now Fitzpatrick has a pretty strong hold over his seat and Berks isn't that much to the right of Bucks where that would necessarily be advantageous for him.

Honestly, I don't know. One thing that could force it: giving Scanlon West Philly creates a second AA VRA district and I bet PADems would have an easy time suing the PA supreme court for it. I'd expect that to take precedence over keeping Bucks intact. Although the PVI on a NE Philly-Lower Bucks district could be pretty shaky for Boyle to hold it.
Yeah, although PA-1 ceding some of lower Bucks to a NE Philly district and then expanding to into more of Northern Montgomery County would make it even safer for Fitzpatrick. Lower Bucks is pretty strongly Dem. I don't think there's a way for Dems to avoid a Fitzpatrick held district in Bucks/MontCo.

Huh? Lower Bucks isn't that Dem anymore. Mid Bucks and Mid/Upper Montgomery are much stronger for Democrats nowadays.

Anyway, I'm thinking of a incumbent protection-mander for Houlahan, not trying to draw out Fitzpatrick.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #17 on: November 22, 2020, 05:15:28 PM »

I suspect that Houlahan knows PA is losing a seat sees how her seat is surrounded by red turf on all but one side and sees the writing on the wall of what will happen in redistricting.

If the Dems and GOP can negotiate, they can push Houlahan into DelCo, Scanlon into West Philly, Evans into North Philly, Boyle into Lower Bucks, and Fitzpatrick into Berks. This should make all parties happier.
Would the GOP or Fitzpatrick want that change? Right now Fitzpatrick has a pretty strong hold over his seat and Berks isn't that much to the right of Bucks where that would necessarily be advantageous for him.

Honestly, I don't know. One thing that could force it: giving Scanlon West Philly creates a second AA VRA district and I bet PADems would have an easy time suing the PA supreme court for it. I'd expect that to take precedence over keeping Bucks intact. Although the PVI on a NE Philly-Lower Bucks district could be pretty shaky for Boyle to hold it.
Yeah, although PA-1 ceding some of lower Bucks to a NE Philly district and then expanding to into more of Northern Montgomery County would make it even safer for Fitzpatrick. Lower Bucks is pretty strongly Dem. I don't think there's a way for Dems to avoid a Fitzpatrick held district in Bucks/MontCo.

Huh? Lower Bucks isn't that Dem anymore. Mid Bucks and Mid/Upper Montgomery are much stronger for Democrats nowadays.

Anyway, I'm thinking of a incumbent protection-mander for Houlahan, not trying to draw out Fitzpatrick.

Lower Bucks is less Dem than it used to be, but assuming still more Dem than the part of Northern Montgomery adjacent to Bucks. Assuming if Fitz district moves Northward and needed to incorporate more of Montgomery it would probably draw in parts less Dem than what it was ceding to NE philly district. Chester is growing quickly, quickly trendin Dem and Houlahan has won comfortably the past few times, so I don't think she's in any danger, even in a GOP wave.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #18 on: November 22, 2020, 06:55:52 PM »

Costello endorsing Biden would not fly in a GOP primary. He has no chance even though he would be a good general election candidate.
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