I don’t see it, honestly. I’ll try and be more cautious with my ratings in general after the last few election cycles, but the leftward shift of Virginia Beach/the Hampton roads area + any further R collapse in the Richmond metro since 2009 makes this virtually impossible. NoVA can be outvoted, but not when the most populous counties you can count on in virtually any scenario are located in the Shenandoah Valley and places like Chesterfield/Stafford are battlegrounds.
I could see them coming within 4-5 points, but actually winning? I think it’s too far gone.
If it were Nova alone that has been shifting the state to the Democrats 2016 President would have been much closer and maybe a Trump win.. Warner would lost in 2014.. Mcaffullie would have lost in 2013. Even Fairfax could have lost in 2017.
But Virginia has many shifting parts. Hampton Roads was long competitive for Democrats but the GOP collapse in the Richmond Metro area has been an underrated disaster for the GOP.
The two county results that stick out to me from 2020: Chesterfield County voting to the left of the nation and Prince William County voting so heavily for Biden despite having all the demographics that swung to Trump nationally.