Could the GOP win any Virginia statewide race next year?

[NewYorkExpress]

Before the Republican's stunt Wednesday, I would have said Virginia and New Jersey would be competitive.

Now, Republicans will be lucky to get within fifteen points in Virginia, or twenty-five points in New Jersey.

[Fusternino]

Rs still only lost by ~4 in the raw two-party House vote statewide.

I still don't think they will win anything, tbh.

[LtNOWIS]

Rs still only lost by ~4 in the raw two-party House vote statewide.

I still don't think they will win anything, tbh.

Does that account for the Dems not running a candidate in the 9th district?

[It’s so Joever]

Before the Republican's stunt Wednesday, I would have said Virginia and New Jersey would be competitive.

Now, Republicans will be lucky to get within fifteen points in Virginia, or twenty-five points in New Jersey.

Hahaha.
Nobody will care about this in a year, quote me on this.

[neostassenite31]

Rs still only lost by ~4 in the raw two-party House vote statewide.

I still don't think they will win anything, tbh.

Does that account for the Dems not running a candidate in the 9th district?

Griffith won VA-9 by 88 points while Trump won by 42 points. With a 46 point GOP overperformance, 46 x (1/11) ≈ 4 point statewide Democratic underperformance, so VA would be D+8 in the CB this year with correction

[neostassenite31]

Before the Republican's stunt Wednesday, I would have said Virginia and New Jersey would be competitive.

Now, Republicans will be lucky to get within fifteen points in Virginia, or twenty-five points in New Jersey.

Hahaha.
Nobody will care about this in a year, quote me on this.

Sadly agree with this, although even cheap preliminary polls should be sensitive enough to pick up a GOP rout along the lines of 15 or 30 percentage points, in the unlikely event that it does occur

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Looking at the fields, the Republicans can't win but the Democrats can lose.

That's not to say they're remotely likely to, though.

[smoltchanov]

Why not? If GOP could win governorships in Massachusetts, Maryland and Vermont - why couldn't it win in relatively more conservative Virginia? You need proper candidate only...

[Alcibiades]

Why not? If GOP could win governorships in Massachusetts, Maryland and Vermont - why couldn't it win in relatively more conservative Virginia? You need proper candidate only...

Because the base of the Virginia GOP is far more conservative than those of the MA, MD and VT GOPs, and tend to nominate candidates unpalatable to the majority of the electorate. You often see this phenomenon when a party loses control of a state, they double down on extreme ideological positions, meaning that, although they have a high floor, they are unable to win statewide races.

[neostassenite31]

Why not? If GOP could win governorships in Massachusetts, Maryland and Vermont - why couldn't it win in relatively more conservative Virginia? You need proper candidate only...

Because the base of the Virginia GOP is far more conservative than those of the MA, MD and VT GOPs, and tend to nominate candidates unpalatable to the majority of the electorate. You often see this phenomenon when a party loses control of a state, they double down on extreme ideological positions, meaning that, although they have a high floor, they are unable to win statewide races.

Not quite sure if it's about the political leanings of the base itself or if it's more of a reflection of the strategic posture and culture of the state party organization in deciding what kind of candidates to support.

The same extreme polarization exists across all 50 states. Nowadays the average Democrat in Oklahoma isn't any more conservative than the average Democrat in Massachusetts, and vice versa for Republicans. States simply have differing percentage of Democrats and Republicans based on their differing demographic profiles.

We often hear Republicans in MA and MD constantly complain about how betrayed they feel by Hogan and Baker and wouldn't support them over Trump in a presidential primary. The state GOP party only put people like that up when they genuinely feel that running a RINO is the sole way to plausibly win.

The VA GOP needs to lose presidential elections by 20+ points and cede veto-proof supermajorities to Democrats in the state legislature before they would feel hopeless enough to run someone like Hogan or Phil Scott.   

[Chips]

And so I return to this thread I forgot about for nearly a year until it suddenly crossed my mind again.

The GOP didn't win a Virginia race, they swept all three.

As expected, a lot of the takes on the thread aged rather poorly but that was honestly to be expected. I doubt anyone even thought Youngkin was going to be the nominee at the time.

I always thought there was a chance the GOP could and possibly even win all three if the environment was right for them but I myself didn't expect the GOP to win a race until the very end. I thought Herring would narrowly lose at the end and that's exactly what happened.

[jamestroll]

Well the gop won't be winning much else in virginia in the future though lol

[Skill and Chance]

And so I return to this thread I forgot about for nearly a year until it suddenly crossed my mind again.

The GOP didn't win a Virginia race, they swept all three.

As expected, a lot of the takes on the thread aged rather poorly but that was honestly to be expected. I doubt anyone even thought Youngkin was going to be the nominee at the time.

I always thought there was a chance the GOP could and possibly even win all three if the environment was right for them but I myself didn't expect the GOP to win a race until the very end. I thought Herring would narrowly lose at the end and that's exactly what happened.

I thought AG would flip due to Herring's scandal, and LG was always precarious, but based on 2013, it looked to me like McAuliffe would have a lot more appeal to the Biden Republicans than he actually did (perhaps he would have against a Trumpier nominee?).

[Roll Roons]

I never thought it was completely out of the question. Virginia is undoubtedly blue-leaning but it’s not like it's California or Hawaii.

That said, I was pretty skeptical until they actually pulled it off.