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November 29, 2020, 05:11:27 PM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  Could the GOP win any Virginia statewide race next year?
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Poll
Question: Could a Republican win a statewide race in Virginia next year?
#1
It's possible
 
#2
Maybe
 
#3
No
 
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Total Voters: 68

Author Topic: Could the GOP win any Virginia statewide race next year?  (Read 789 times)
Chips
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« on: November 21, 2020, 07:12:40 PM »

I'd say there's a chance but all the GOP candidates face an uphill battle.
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jimmie
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« Reply #1 on: November 21, 2020, 07:48:04 PM »

Yes they could as I have explained numerous times.

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TDAS04
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« Reply #2 on: November 21, 2020, 07:49:48 PM »

Itís not impossible, maybe.  I doubt they will, but it Republicans can win the governorships of MA/MD/VT...
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Astatine
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« Reply #3 on: November 21, 2020, 08:16:48 PM »

Barring a scenario in which Dems somehow nominate Fairfax, fairly unlikely.
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jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #4 on: November 21, 2020, 08:29:32 PM »

Barring a scenario in which Dems somehow nominate Fairfax, fairly unlikely.

I had a dream or should I say nightmare.. that Democrats nominated Justin Fairfax for Governor, Lee Carter for Lt. Governor and they both lost.. but still won Nova
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Atlanta 1997 World Champs
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« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2020, 10:37:05 PM »

Very unlikely.

The VAGOP needs a deep rebuild.
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #6 on: November 22, 2020, 02:26:15 AM »

It's possible but very unlikely. They got within 5% in the LG race and 6-7% in AG back in 2017, so I wouldn't rule it out.
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TML
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« Reply #7 on: November 22, 2020, 03:01:22 AM »

The only way I can envision this happening is if both of the following conditions are true:

-Bidenís approval rating in the state is significantly underwater;
-The Democratic candidate has as much baggage as Roy Moore had in 2017.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #8 on: November 22, 2020, 11:22:02 AM »

I know they can pick up some seats other than Gov and It Gov, they aren't totally locked out of VA at 6.5  percent unemployment, they will make gains in the state legislature
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SirWoodbury
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« Reply #9 on: November 22, 2020, 01:39:25 PM »

Yes they could as I have explained numerous times.


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bagelman
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« Reply #10 on: November 22, 2020, 04:40:17 PM »

Probably not.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #11 on: November 22, 2020, 04:46:27 PM »

Georgia too
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #12 on: November 22, 2020, 06:40:01 PM »

I donít see it, honestly. Iíll try and be more cautious with my ratings in general after the last few election cycles, but the leftward shift of Virginia Beach/the Hampton roads area + any further R collapse in the Richmond metro since 2009 makes this virtually impossible. NoVA can be outvoted, but not when the most populous counties you can count on in virtually any scenario are located in the Shenandoah Valley and places like Chesterfield/Stafford are battlegrounds.

I could see them coming within 4-5 points, but actually winning? I think itís too far gone.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #13 on: November 22, 2020, 06:41:22 PM »

Nope

Virginia is one state where I am entirely confident about Democrats, and have yet to be proven wrong.
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#SaveTheSenate
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« Reply #14 on: November 22, 2020, 06:51:51 PM »

As MT Treasurer said, it's simply too far gone.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #15 on: November 22, 2020, 06:53:20 PM »

As MT Treasurer said, it's simply too far gone.

Say Fairfax was nominated and the Republicans nominated say......Riggleman (somehow). Do you think they could bring it within 1-2 points?

But obviously this scenario isn't happening
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#SaveTheSenate
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« Reply #16 on: November 22, 2020, 07:02:23 PM »

As MT Treasurer said, it's simply too far gone.

Say Fairfax was nominated and the Republicans nominated say......Riggleman (somehow). Do you think they could bring it within 1-2 points?

But obviously this scenario isn't happening

I think they could (though this would require a fairly R-friendly environment), but still no dice.
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jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #17 on: November 22, 2020, 09:51:35 PM »

As MT Treasurer said, it's simply too far gone.

I could see Justin Fairfax and Lee Carter losing statewide. Though with Lee Carter all of his negatives have some mitigation. His military back probably helps him from sinking too hard in Hampton Roads (which Fairfax would) and he is redneck-ish so may attract a few more votes in rural Virginia.

But Fairfax would be crushed in downstate Virginia and would be dependent on Nova to pull him over him.
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jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #18 on: November 22, 2020, 09:55:20 PM »

I donít see it, honestly. Iíll try and be more cautious with my ratings in general after the last few election cycles, but the leftward shift of Virginia Beach/the Hampton roads area + any further R collapse in the Richmond metro since 2009 makes this virtually impossible. NoVA can be outvoted, but not when the most populous counties you can count on in virtually any scenario are located in the Shenandoah Valley and places like Chesterfield/Stafford are battlegrounds.

I could see them coming within 4-5 points, but actually winning? I think itís too far gone.

If it were Nova alone that has been shifting the state to the Democrats 2016 President would have been much closer and maybe a Trump win.. Warner would lost in 2014.. Mcaffullie would have lost in 2013. Even Fairfax could have lost in 2017.

But Virginia has many shifting parts. Hampton Roads was long competitive for Democrats but the GOP collapse in the Richmond Metro area has been an underrated disaster for the GOP.

The two county results that stick out to me from 2020: Chesterfield County voting to the left of the nation and Prince William County voting so heavily for Biden despite having all the demographics that swung to Trump nationally.
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Kansas City Suburbanite for Orman-Clinton-Kelly For Marshall
Zyzz
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« Reply #19 on: November 28, 2020, 07:19:51 PM »

Itís not impossible, maybe.  I doubt they will, but it Republicans can win the governorships of MA/MD/VT...

VA is too right wing to have a moderate GOP, but too left wing to vote for some right wing hack.
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