Which state will do mid decade redistricting for partisan interests?

[David Hume]

GA did it after GOP won full control in 2002. If they hold governorship, it may be stupid for them not to do it before 2026, since it may be their last trifecta in a long time. The current state house may flip before 2030, especially if 2026 or 2030 is a republican mid term.

TX did it after GOP won full control in 2002. Their house may flip before 2030 as well.

WI GOP may gain trifecta in 2022. Not sure if they will modify the court map. If so, they may lock a veto-proof supermajority.

PA GOP may do so as well, since the Court map is likely to be a mild Dem gerrymander.

Not sure if NV GOP will do it. They threatened to do so in 2015 but didn't go for it, and lost both houses in 2016. Dems just drew a pretty steep gerrymander which is hard for them to beat. Not sure if they will revenge once they can.

MN is interesting. In 2010 both house were R controlled, and the D governor vetoed both congressional and legislative maps, resulting court maps. Now D control house and R control senate. I am not sure if they will reach a deal to gerrymander their own house like NY, and let the court to draw the congressional map. If not, R may win both houses and governorship. Not sure if they will redistrict then. The MN geography is terrible for D just like MI and WI. If R get to gerrymander, D may no longer be able to win back, just like WI.

If R win trifecta in OR in 2022, they may want to push for it. I am not sure if D can resist by walking out to deny quorum. Since unlike the case in 2021, there will be no deadline.

Even though R may win trifecta in ME, they won't be able to gerrymander, since 2/3 votes are needed.


For D, they have much fewer chances to do so. One likely case is NY. If they cannot override the commission before 2022, but win more seats later, they may want to do it. Yet I am not sure if they are allowed, as all redistricting need to first go through commission, and I am not sure if they can push the commission for mid decade redistricting.

Another is NM, if the R trend in Latino continues, they may feel necessary to redistrict.

For OR, if D keep trifecta, they may want to redistrict before the next D midterm.

I think I have exhausted all possible states. Please add your comments if I miss anything.

 

[Mr.Phips]

GA did it after GOP won full control in 2002. If they hold governorship, it may be stupid for them not to do it before 2026, since it may be their last trifecta in a long time. The current state house may flip before 2030, especially if 2026 or 2030 is a republican mid term.

TX did it after GOP won full control in 2002. Their house may flip before 2030 as well.

WI GOP may gain trifecta in 2022. Not sure if they will modify the court map. If so, they may lock a veto-proof supermajority.

PA GOP may do so as well, since the Court map is likely to be a mild Dem gerrymander.

Not sure if NV GOP will do it. They threatened to do so in 2015 but didn't go for it, and lost both houses in 2016. Dems just drew a pretty steep gerrymander which is hard for them to beat. Not sure if they will revenge once they can.

MN is interesting. In 2010 both house were R controlled, and the D governor vetoed both congressional and legislative maps, resulting court maps. Now D control house and R control senate. I am not sure if they will reach a deal to gerrymander their own house like NY, and let the court to draw the congressional map. If not, R may win both houses and governorship. Not sure if they will redistrict then. The MN geography is terrible for D just like MI and WI. If R get to gerrymander, D may no longer be able to win back, just like WI.

If R win trifecta in OR in 2022, they may want to push for it. I am not sure if D can resist by walking out to deny quorum. Since unlike the case in 2021, there will be no deadline.

Even though R may win trifecta in ME, they won't be able to gerrymander, since 2/3 votes are needed.


For D, they have much fewer chances to do so. One likely case is NY. If they cannot override the commission before 2022, but win more seats later, they may want to do it. Yet I am not sure if they are allowed, as all redistricting need to first go through commission, and I am not sure if they can push the commission for mid decade redistricting.

Another is NM, if the R trend in Latino continues, they may feel necessary to redistrict.

For OR, if D keep trifecta, they may want to redistrict before the next D midterm.

I think I have exhausted all possible states. Please add your comments if I miss anything.

 

I know Wisconsin doesn’t allow mid decade redistricting.  MN has the same language.  In PA, Dems have the state Supreme Court and would likely strike it down.

[David Hume]

GA did it after GOP won full control in 2002. If they hold governorship, it may be stupid for them not to do it before 2026, since it may be their last trifecta in a long time. The current state house may flip before 2030, especially if 2026 or 2030 is a republican mid term.

TX did it after GOP won full control in 2002. Their house may flip before 2030 as well.

WI GOP may gain trifecta in 2022. Not sure if they will modify the court map. If so, they may lock a veto-proof supermajority.

PA GOP may do so as well, since the Court map is likely to be a mild Dem gerrymander.

Not sure if NV GOP will do it. They threatened to do so in 2015 but didn't go for it, and lost both houses in 2016. Dems just drew a pretty steep gerrymander which is hard for them to beat. Not sure if they will revenge once they can.

MN is interesting. In 2010 both house were R controlled, and the D governor vetoed both congressional and legislative maps, resulting court maps. Now D control house and R control senate. I am not sure if they will reach a deal to gerrymander their own house like NY, and let the court to draw the congressional map. If not, R may win both houses and governorship. Not sure if they will redistrict then. The MN geography is terrible for D just like MI and WI. If R get to gerrymander, D may no longer be able to win back, just like WI.

If R win trifecta in OR in 2022, they may want to push for it. I am not sure if D can resist by walking out to deny quorum. Since unlike the case in 2021, there will be no deadline.

Even though R may win trifecta in ME, they won't be able to gerrymander, since 2/3 votes are needed.


For D, they have much fewer chances to do so. One likely case is NY. If they cannot override the commission before 2022, but win more seats later, they may want to do it. Yet I am not sure if they are allowed, as all redistricting need to first go through commission, and I am not sure if they can push the commission for mid decade redistricting.

Another is NM, if the R trend in Latino continues, they may feel necessary to redistrict.

For OR, if D keep trifecta, they may want to redistrict before the next D midterm.

I think I have exhausted all possible states. Please add your comments if I miss anything.

 

I know Wisconsin doesn’t allow mid decade redistricting.  MN has the same language.  In PA, Dems have the state Supreme Court and would likely strike it down.

Could you share the sources?

For PA, is there any anti-partisan gerrymander law?

[Mr.Phips]

GA did it after GOP won full control in 2002. If they hold governorship, it may be stupid for them not to do it before 2026, since it may be their last trifecta in a long time. The current state house may flip before 2030, especially if 2026 or 2030 is a republican mid term.

TX did it after GOP won full control in 2002. Their house may flip before 2030 as well.

WI GOP may gain trifecta in 2022. Not sure if they will modify the court map. If so, they may lock a veto-proof supermajority.

PA GOP may do so as well, since the Court map is likely to be a mild Dem gerrymander.

Not sure if NV GOP will do it. They threatened to do so in 2015 but didn't go for it, and lost both houses in 2016. Dems just drew a pretty steep gerrymander which is hard for them to beat. Not sure if they will revenge once they can.

MN is interesting. In 2010 both house were R controlled, and the D governor vetoed both congressional and legislative maps, resulting court maps. Now D control house and R control senate. I am not sure if they will reach a deal to gerrymander their own house like NY, and let the court to draw the congressional map. If not, R may win both houses and governorship. Not sure if they will redistrict then. The MN geography is terrible for D just like MI and WI. If R get to gerrymander, D may no longer be able to win back, just like WI.

If R win trifecta in OR in 2022, they may want to push for it. I am not sure if D can resist by walking out to deny quorum. Since unlike the case in 2021, there will be no deadline.

Even though R may win trifecta in ME, they won't be able to gerrymander, since 2/3 votes are needed.


For D, they have much fewer chances to do so. One likely case is NY. If they cannot override the commission before 2022, but win more seats later, they may want to do it. Yet I am not sure if they are allowed, as all redistricting need to first go through commission, and I am not sure if they can push the commission for mid decade redistricting.

Another is NM, if the R trend in Latino continues, they may feel necessary to redistrict.

For OR, if D keep trifecta, they may want to redistrict before the next D midterm.

I think I have exhausted all possible states. Please add your comments if I miss anything.

 

I know Wisconsin doesn’t allow mid decade redistricting.  MN has the same language.  In PA, Dems have the state Supreme Court and would likely strike it down.

Could you share the sources?

For PA, is there any anti-partisan gerrymander law?

Here’s Wisconsin:

https://docs.legis.wisconsin.gov/constitution/wi/000229/000004

The redistricting is done in the first session after the census.

Minnesota:

https://www.revisor.mn.gov/constitution/#article_4

Same language.

Pennsylvania:

https://redistricting.lls.edu/state/pennsylvania/?cycle=2020&level=Congress&startdate=

PA prohibits mid decade redraws for the legislature line, but is silent on the congressional ones.  The state Supreme Court would strike down a congressional gerrymander on the same grounds that they struck down the 2011 one.

[David Hume]

The language of these constitutions are similar to the Federal constitution, in that the state needs to redistrict every ten years, but did not forbid mid decade redistricting. The Supreme Court has ruled about this during the 2000s.

For PA, I don't think they can gerrymander the state legislature since the committee draws the line. The tie-breaker is choosing by SC, which won't help them.

[Mr.Phips]

The language of these constitutions are similar to the Federal constitution, in that the state needs to redistrict every ten years, but did not forbid mid decade redistricting. The Supreme Court has ruled about this during the 2000s.

For PA, I don't think they can gerrymander the state legislature since the committee draws the line. The tie-breaker is choosing by SC, which won't help them.

Many of these states specifically say the lines are drawn during the first session after the census.  That’s pretty specific.  The federal constitutional language is not this specific.

[Skill and Chance]

Not many. 

OH is by far the most likely given how the new median justice on their state supreme court ruled on the last set of maps. 

GA is reasonably probable given they already did it in the 2010's (albeit in a very minor way).

NM and TX both have partisan state supreme court elections and seem to be trending to the party currently out of power.

There's also an outside chance commission amendments could pass with language requiring it in some of the states where signature gathering back in 2020 ground to a halt due to COVID. OR, NV, AR, and OK come to mind as states with one-party control that recently tried to do reform by initiative.

VA is technically doing it given that the 2021 HoD elections were held on the old maps, but not for partisan reasons. 

[David Hume]

The language of these constitutions are similar to the Federal constitution, in that the state needs to redistrict every ten years, but did not forbid mid decade redistricting. The Supreme Court has ruled about this during the 2000s.

For PA, I don't think they can gerrymander the state legislature since the committee draws the line. The tie-breaker is choosing by SC, which won't help them.

Many of these states specifically say the lines are drawn during the first session after the census.  That’s pretty specific.  The federal constitutional language is not this specific.

They did not say lines can only be drawn or cannot be drawn at other times. If the previous maps are stricken down, new lines have to be drawn at a later times.

[user12345]

Not many. 

OH is by far the most likely given how the new median justice on their state supreme court ruled on the last set of maps. 

GA is reasonably probable given they already did it in the 2010's (albeit in a very minor way).

NM and TX both have partisan state supreme court elections and seem to be trending to the party currently out of power.

There's also an outside chance commission amendments could pass with language requiring it in some of the states where signature gathering back in 2020 ground to a halt due to COVID. OR, NV, AR, and OK come to mind as states with one-party control that recently tried to do reform by initiative.

VA is technically doing it given that the 2021 HoD elections were held on the old maps, but not for partisan reasons. 

The Ohio Congressional and State Leg. maps only last 4 years because they were not passed in a bipartisan manner. So they'll have to redraw them.

[GALeftist]

Pretty sure a trifecta in Nevada is out of reach for Republicans for the decade. They'd have to be winning the state by like double digits

[Mr.Phips]

The language of these constitutions are similar to the Federal constitution, in that the state needs to redistrict every ten years, but did not forbid mid decade redistricting. The Supreme Court has ruled about this during the 2000s.

For PA, I don't think they can gerrymander the state legislature since the committee draws the line. The tie-breaker is choosing by SC, which won't help them.

Many of these states specifically say the lines are drawn during the first session after the census.  That’s pretty specific.  The federal constitutional language is not this specific.

They did not say lines can only be drawn or cannot be drawn at other times. If the previous maps are stricken down, new lines have to be drawn at a later times.

They specifically state the time for drawing the lines.  Obviously if court ordered, the lines would have to be redrawn.