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November 29, 2020, 05:13:12 PM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

  Talk Elections
  General Discussion
  History (Moderator: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자))
  presidential voting trends by state
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Author Topic: presidential voting trends by state  (Read 119 times)
kcguy
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« on: November 21, 2020, 05:30:47 PM »
« edited: November 21, 2020, 05:40:29 PM by kcguy »

A while ago, I came up with an attempt to track how each state has voted, compared to the national average.  It supposed to be a percentile score--with 100 as a Democratic outlier and 0 as Republican--but I'm not completely sure I know how to do percentiles.  Either way, it should provide a rough sense of state trends.


I did it based entirely on Democratic presidential vote / (Democratic presidential vote + Republican presidential vote), ignoring 3rd parties.

For Alabama and similar states, if the Democratic candidate was not on the ballot, I gave him the votes of unpledged Democratic electors, if there were any.  In 1948, I assumed no votes were cast in Alabama for Harry Truman.
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kcguy
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« Reply #1 on: November 21, 2020, 05:33:23 PM »

Illinois:



Indiana:



Michigan:



Ohio:



Wisconsin:


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kcguy
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« Reply #2 on: November 21, 2020, 05:37:38 PM »

Iowa:



Kansas:



Minnesota:



Missouri:



Nebraska:



North Dakota:



South Dakota:


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kcguy
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« Reply #3 on: November 21, 2020, 05:42:29 PM »

New Jersey:



New York:



Pennsylvania:


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kcguy
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« Reply #4 on: November 21, 2020, 05:45:22 PM »

Connecticut:



Maine:



Massachusetts:



New Hampshire:



Rhode Island:



Vermont:

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kcguy
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« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2020, 05:47:49 PM »

Alabama:



Kentucky:



Mississippi:



Tennessee:


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kcguy
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« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2020, 05:52:09 PM »

Delaware:



District of Columbia:



Florida:



Georgia:



Maryland:



North Carolina:



South Carolina:



Virginia:



West Virginia:


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kcguy
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« Reply #7 on: November 21, 2020, 05:54:47 PM »

Arkansas:



Louisiana:



Oklahoma:



Texas:

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kcguy
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« Reply #8 on: November 21, 2020, 05:58:24 PM »

Arizona:



Colorado:



Idaho:



Montana:



Nevada:



New Mexico:



Utah:



Wyoming:


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kcguy
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« Reply #9 on: November 21, 2020, 06:00:45 PM »

Alaska:



California:



Hawaii:



Oregon:



Washington:

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kcguy
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« Reply #10 on: November 21, 2020, 06:16:45 PM »

I also was curious about re-aligning elections, so I looked at the number of percentiles the average state moved (weighted by number of votes cast in each state).

SINGLE-ELECTION:
1972 (McGovern/Nixon) --> 1976 (Carter/Ford) : 31 percentiles
1956 (Stevenson/Eisenhower) --> 1960 (Kennedy/Nixon) : 25 percentiles
1928 (Smith/Hoover) --> 1932 (Roosevelt/Hoover) : 23 percentiles
1924 (Davis/Coolidge) --> 1928 (Smith/Hoover) : 23 percentiles
1960 (Kennedy/Nixon) --> 1964 (Johnson/Goldwater):  20 percentiles
1980 (Carter/Reagan) --> 1984 (Mondale/Reagan) : 19 percentiles
1968 (Humphrey/Nixon) --> 1972 (McGovern/Nixon):  18 percentiles
1948 (Truman/Dewey) --> 1952 (Stevenson/Eisenhower);  17 percentiles
1952 (Stevenson/Eisenhower) --> 1956 (Stevenson/Eisenhower):  17 percentiles
1944 (Roosevelt/Dewey) --> 1948 (Truman/Dewey):  15 percentiles
1976 (Carter/Ford) --> 1980 (Carter/Reagan):  14 percentiles
1932 (Roosevelt/Hoover) --> 1936 (Roosevelt/Landon) : 12 percentiles
1992 (Clinton/Bush) --> 1996 (Clinton/Dole):  12 percentiles
1964 (Johnson/Goldwater) --> 1968 (Humphrey/Nixon):  12 percentiles
1988 (Dukakis/Bush) --> 1992 (Clinton/Bush):  11 percentiles
1984 (Mondale/Reagan) --> 1988 (Dukakis/Bush):  11 percentiles
1936 (Roosevelt/Landon) --> 1940 (Roosevelt/Willkie):  11 percentiles
1920 (Cox/Harding) --> 1924 (Davis/Coolidge):  10 percentiles
2012 (Obama/Romney) --> 2016 (Clinton/Trump):  7 percentiles
1996 (Clinton/Dole) --> 2000 (Gore/Bush):  7 percentiles
2004 (Kerry/Bush) --> 2008 (Obama/McCain):  7 percentiles
2000 (Gore/Bush) --> 2004 (Kerry/Bush):  6 percentiles
1940 (Roosevelt/Willkie) --> 1944 (Roosevelt/Dewey): 5 percentiles
2008 (Obama/McCain) --> 2012 (Obama/Romney):  4 percentiles
2016 (Clinton/Trump) --> 2020 (Biden/Trump):  4 percentiles
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kcguy
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« Reply #11 on: November 21, 2020, 06:29:29 PM »

SECOND-ELECTION:
1956 (Stevenson/Eisenhower) --> 1964 (Johnson/Goldwater) : 32 percentiles
1920 (Cox/Harding) --> 1928 (Smith/Hoover) : 29 percentiles
1928 (Smith/Hoover) --> 1936 (Roosevelt/Landon): 27 percentiles
1976 (Carter/Ford) --> 1984 (Mondale/Reagan): 26 percentiles
1972 (McGovern/Nixon) --> 1980 (Carter/Reagan):  26 percentiles
1980 (Carter/Reagan) --> 1988 (Dukakis/Bush):  24 percentiles
1968 (Humphrey/Nixon) --> 1976 (Carter/Ford):  20 percentiles
1924 (Davis/Coolidge) --> 1932 (Roosevelt/Hoover): 19 percentiles
1948 (Truman/Dewey) --> 1956 (Stevenson/Eisenhower): 18 percentiles
1952 (Stevenson/Eisenhower) --> 1960 (Kennedy/Nixon): 17 percentiles
1964 (Johnson/Goldwater) --> 1972 (McGovern/Nixon): 17 percentiles
1932 (Roosevelt/Hoover) --> 1940 (Roosevelt/Willkie): 16 percentiles
1944 (Roosevelt/Dewey) --> 1952 (Stevenson/Eisenhower): 15 percentiles
1988 (Dukakis/Bush) --> 1996 (Clinton/Dole):  15 percentiles
1940 (Roosevelt/Willkie) --> 1948 (Truman/Dewey): 15 percentiles
1984 (Mondale/Reagan) --> 1992 (Clinton/Bush): 14 percentiles
1992 (Clinton/Bush) --> 2000 (Gore/Bush): 12 percentiles
1960 (Kennedy/Nixon) --> 1968 (Humphrey/Nixon): 11 percentiles
1936 (Roosevelt/Landon) --> 1944 (Roosevelt/Dewey):  11 percentiles
2000 (Gore/Bush) --> 2008 (Obama/McCain): 10 percentiles
2012 (Obama/Romney) --> 2020 (Biden/Trump): 10 percentiles
2008 (Obama/McCain) --> 2016 (Clinton/Trump): 9 percentiles
1996 (Clinton/Dole) --> 2004 (Kerry/Bush):  8 percentiles
2004 (Kerry/Bush) --> 2012 (Obama/Romney): 6 percentiles
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kcguy
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« Reply #12 on: November 21, 2020, 06:41:34 PM »

THIRD-ELECTION:
1976 (Carter/Ford) --> 1988 (Dukakis/Bush) : 29 percentiles
1948 (Truman/Dewey) --> 1960 (Kennedy/Nixon): 28 percentiles
1956 (Stevenson/Eisenhower) --> 1968 (Humphrey/Nixon): 28 percentiles
1928 (Smith/Hoover) --> 1940 (Roosevelt/Willkie): 27 percentiles
1952 (Stevenson/Eisenhower) --> 1964 (Johnson/Goldwater): 26 percentiles
1964 (Johnson/Goldwater)--> 1976 (Carter/Ford): 25 percentiles
1960 (Kennedy/Nixon) --> 1972 (McGovern/Nixon): 24 percentiles
1980 (Carter/Reagan) --> 1992 (Clinton/Bush):  24 percentiles
1920 (Cox/Harding) --> 1932 (Roosevelt/Hoover):  21 percentiles
1924 (Davis/Coolidge) --> 1936 (Roosevelt/Landon):  21 percentiles
1968 (Humphrey/Nixon) --> 1980 (Carter/Reagan): 18 percentiles
1988 (Dukakis/Bush) --> 2000 (Gore/Bush):  18 percentiles
1940 (Roosevelt/Willkie) --> 1952 (Stevenson/Eisenhower):  17 percentiles
1944 (Roosevelt/Dewey) --> 1956 (Stevenson/Eisenhower):  17 percentiles
1936 (Roosevelt/Landon) --> 1948 (Truman/Dewey):  16 percentiles
1984 (Mondale/Reagan) --> 1996 (Clinton/Dole):  16 percentiles
1932 (Roosevelt/Hoover) --> 1944 (Roosevelt/Dewey):  15 percentiles
1972 (McGovern/Nixon) --> 1984 (Mondale/Reagan):  15 percentiles
1996 (Clinton/Dole) --> 2008 (Obama/McCain):  12 percentiles
2008 (Obama/McCain) --> 2020 (Biden/Trump):  11 percentiles
2004 (Kerry/Bush) --> 2016 (Clinton/Trump):  11 percentiles
1992 (Clinton/Bush) --> 2004 (Kerry/Bush):  11 percentiles
2000 (Gore/Bush) --> 2012 (Obama/Romney):  9 percentiles
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