Will the GOP win the House PV in 2022?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Traditionally, one would expect them to, but they have really struggled to get a majority of the national vote in recent cycles. Even in 2014, which was supposedly an "amazing" year for the GOP, they only won the House PV by about 5.7%; but their wins were inflated because of a gerrymandered House map and a senate map where Democrats had a lot of vulnerable incumbents. For now, I'll say yes, but I have a hard time seeing an R+8/9 year unless Biden becomes really really unpopular, which is a possibility this far out, but more likely I think it'll be R+3 or so.

[Mr.Phips]

Traditionally, one would expect them to, but they have really struggled to get a majority of the national vote in recent cycles. Even in 2014, which was supposedly an "amazing" year for the GOP, they only won the House PV by about 5.7%; but their wins were inflated because of a gerrymandered House map and a senate map where Democrats had a lot of vulnerable incumbents. For now, I'll say yes, but I have a hard time seeing an R+8/9 year unless Biden becomes really really unpopular, which is a possibility this far out, but more likely I think it'll be R+3 or so.

They didn’t even win it by 8/9 (they won it by 7 in 2010 and 5 in 2014) in 2010 or 2014 when Dem turnout was literally at rock bottom and independents were at R+20 and R+12 respectively.  Due to increased polarization and demographic trends, I’d say R+4 is probably the worst case scenario for Dems.

[EastwoodS]

Traditionally, one would expect them to, but they have really struggled to get a majority of the national vote in recent cycles. Even in 2014, which was supposedly an "amazing" year for the GOP, they only won the House PV by about 5.7%; but their wins were inflated because of a gerrymandered House map and a senate map where Democrats had a lot of vulnerable incumbents. For now, I'll say yes, but I have a hard time seeing an R+8/9 year unless Biden becomes really really unpopular, which is a possibility this far out, but more likely I think it'll be R+3 or so.

They didn’t even win it by 8/9 (they won it by 7 in 2010 and 5 in 2014) in 2010 or 2014 when Dem turnout was literally at rock bottom and independents were at R+20 and R+12 respectively.  Due to increased polarization and demographic trends, I’d say R+4 is probably the worst case scenario for Dems.

“Demographics” Democrats are in love with that word.

[Annatar]

Republicans won the House vote in 2016, independents will likely vote against the party that controls the WH like they did in 2006, 2010, 2014 and 2018, Republicans will probably win the NPV by 5-7% in 2022 as it will be a normal midterm year. Democrats won the house vote by 7% in 2018 if you adjust for how many seats Republicans left uncontested.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's two yrs down the road a lot can happen between now and then

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I have the House at likely R and the PV for the House at lean R.

[Xing]

Most likely, but I could see them only winning it by 2-3, while getting a sizable majority in the House.

[KaiserDave]

Probably but only by 4-5 at most

[VAR]

no imo because i think joe is going to be an ff president

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are projecting R gai s 2 yrs down the road alot can happen between now and Election day 😃

[MT Treasurer]

They can’t win the PV without Trump being on the ballot and driving millions upon millions of low-propensity voters to the polls

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

One things for certain, they don't have to win it to win the house
So even if ita not a huge r wave I expect the house to flip

[Mr.Phips]

They can’t win the PV without Trump being on the ballot and driving millions upon millions of low-propensity voters to the polls

Many of those voters didn’t even vote Dem or at all downballot.  Dems would have done way better had they done so.

[KaiserDave]

I am quite sure however that Dems will have better turnout than 2014 and 2010, the coalition has adjusted to include more high propensity voters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They can’t win the PV without Trump being on the ballot and driving millions upon millions of low-propensity voters to the polls

Trump lost a midterm due to impeachment and Trump never had an approval above,51% and Obama lost seats due to fact we had 11% unemployment, D's will buck the midterm collapse as long as Biden stays away 44% approvals

Rs don't want D's to have a Trifecta due to fact they don't want Crt Packing and DC enshrined as Statehood Old School Republican had said so in many of his threads. That's the motivation of Rs that they want to see a Red wave in 2022

[Frenchrepublican]

I doubt democrats will lose the PV by 7 like they did in 2010, but it's easy to see them losing it by 3 to 5 points and losing between 25 and 30 seats.

[iceman]

Maybe... the GOP won the house PV 2016 by 1.1%

[Yellowhammer]

We are basically guaranteed to win it, the question is by how much.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are basically guaranteed to win it, the question is by how much.

..


Sure, your party R just lost the WH, how many yrs of jail time is Klobuchar AG gonna give Trump for tax evasion 24 yrs

Rs have a hard time accepting that just lost the election

[pbrower2a]

no imo because i think joe is going to be an ff president

Obama was a fine President in 2009 and 2010, and he could not protect the House majority or stop big R gains in the Senate in 2010. America's plutocrats funded and sponsored the Tea Party.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

They can’t win the PV without Trump being on the ballot and driving millions upon millions of low-propensity voters to the polls

Absolutist words like can't are dangerous because any scenario that leads them doing so, disapproves it.

There are ways to a majority without Trump. In fact, it gets easier without him spooking the bejeesus out of a lot of natural GOP voters. Mormons, Suburban Seniors (especially in a number of Southern states), and many midwest suburban areas as well.

Lack of trump also removes constraints on individual candidate outreach and because you are running 435 candidates instead of one, you can cast a wider net without the President's administration curtailing your reach.

Also, Republicans have a very successful history of scaring their people into voting with threats both real and imagined. They may not get every Trump voter out, but they will get a large number of them.

[EastwoodS]

We are basically guaranteed to win it, the question is by how much.

..


Sure, your party R just lost the WH, how many yrs of jail time is Klobuchar AG gonna give Trump for tax evasion 24 yrs

Rs have a hard time accepting that just lost the election

We barely lost. Unlike Obama, at least Trump was able to leave the Republican Party in a strong position. What did Obama do?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

no imo because i think joe is going to be an ff president

Obama was a fine President in 2009 and 2010, and he could not protect the House majority or stop big R gains in the Senate in 2010. America's plutocrats funded and sponsored the Tea Party.

The economy was even worse in Nov 2010 than it was in Jan 2009. Regardless of how Obama’s policies impacted the economy, at the time, his economic philosophy seemed as if it was a failure, thus leading to a big backlash