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November 29, 2020, 05:49:28 PM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

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  Is the gop better off is Ron Johnson retires?
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Author Topic: Is the gop better off is Ron Johnson retires?  (Read 562 times)
Happpyindy
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« on: November 21, 2020, 01:24:09 PM »

Johnson isnít the most popular senator, and he walked back on his two term pledge. I think the gop would be better off without him. Especially is the dem nominee is Ron Kind.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #1 on: November 21, 2020, 01:34:32 PM »

In the long run, everyone would be better off without RonJon. He's stronger than the average candidate on the WIGOP bench but I expect they could recruit a better one, primary voters willing. Scott Walker would probably be better placed to win.
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#SaveTheSenate
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« Reply #2 on: November 21, 2020, 01:38:20 PM »

Inb4 IndyRep
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: November 21, 2020, 01:44:07 PM »
« Edited: November 21, 2020, 01:47:48 PM by MT Treasurer »

Competent incumbent who happens to be a skiller campaigner retiring in a competitive/-ish state when said state is one of only very few pick-up opportunities for Democrats -> no.

Also lol at the idea that Ron Kind will defy midterm dynamics/partisan gravity/Republican trends in this state.
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: November 21, 2020, 01:48:52 PM »

No, and they could shoot themselves in the foot by nominating someone like Vukmir. Itís no secret what I think about Johnson, but he wonít be easy to beat if he runs again.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2020, 02:06:16 PM »

In the long run, everyone would be better off without RonJon. He's stronger than the average candidate on the WIGOP bench but I expect they could recruit a better one, primary voters willing. Scott Walker would probably be better placed to win.

The guy who lost the gubernatorial election two years ago. No way. He also said heís not running.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2020, 02:08:46 PM »

In the long run, everyone would be better off without RonJon. He's stronger than the average candidate on the WIGOP bench but I expect they could recruit a better one, primary voters willing. Scott Walker would probably be better placed to win.

Yeah, if we're talking another candidate, Mike Gallagher or Bryan Steil would be much stronger than Walker.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #7 on: November 21, 2020, 02:49:26 PM »

In the long run, everyone would be better off without RonJon. He's stronger than the average candidate on the WIGOP bench but I expect they could recruit a better one, primary voters willing. Scott Walker would probably be better placed to win.

The guy who lost the gubernatorial election two years ago. No way. He also said heís not running.

In a blue wave year by <1% with pronounced strength in the growing areas trending away from the GOP.
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jimmie
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« Reply #8 on: November 21, 2020, 02:51:38 PM »

This could be a dem pick up if Ron Johnson retires...
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #9 on: November 21, 2020, 02:55:14 PM »

Can anyone describe this voter to me?

- decides to vote in a midterm election, mostly or strongly disapproves of Biden, has been inundated with campaign ads, decides to vote for Ron Kind over Ron Johnson after voting for Johnson once or twice in the past, but: would have voted for Mike Gallagher/Scott Walker over Ron Kind

OR (alternatively):

- decides to vote in a midterm election, approves of Biden, voted for Biden, has been inundated with campaign ads, but: decides to vote for Mike Gallagher/Scott Walker over Ron Kind
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2016
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« Reply #10 on: November 21, 2020, 03:22:41 PM »

This could be a dem pick up if Ron Johnson retires...
Not in a Biden Midterm. Wisconsin has become a "True Swing State" now.

2016 Presidential Race

Donald Trump (R) 1,405,284 = 47.8 %
Hillary Clinton (D) 1,382,536 = 47.0 %

Trump wins by 22,748 Votes.

2018 Governor Race

Tony Evers (D) 1,324,307 = 49.6 %
Scott Walker (R) 1,295,080 = 48.5 %

Evers wins by 29,227 Votes.

2020 Presidential Race

Joe Biden (D) 1,630,716 = 49.4 %
Donald Trump (R) 1,610,151 = 48.8 %

Biden wins by 20,565 Votes.

Wisconsin has undergone a remarkable Political Transformation that started with the Elections of Scott Walker and Ron Johnson in 2010. The last 3 Big Races (2016-2020...Presidential & Governor Races) were all decided by less than 30K. Wisconsin is now a State that's permanently available for Republicans whether it's a Governor, Senate or Presidential Contest assuming they have a strong GOP Candidate.
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #11 on: November 21, 2020, 03:41:34 PM »

Competent incumbent who happens to be a skiller campaigner retiring in a competitive/-ish state when said state is one of only very few pick-up opportunities for Democrats -> no.

Also lol at the idea that Ron Kind will defy midterm dynamics/partisan gravity/Republican trends in this state.

All the more hilarious considering Ron Kind just barely won re-election this year and the GOP didn't seriously target him.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #12 on: November 21, 2020, 03:49:57 PM »

No. While Johnson is an imperfect representative of Wisconsin in many ways, he does have a brand of outspoken honesty that enough people find attractive. There are possible upgrades over him the GOP could nominate, but it's more likely they nominate Fitzgerald or Vos or someone with little appeal outside of WOW.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #13 on: November 21, 2020, 05:43:47 PM »

Gallagher might be waiting until 2024 to run against Baldwin. Generic R likely wins in an r leaning midterm, but in 2024 it might be more neutral so they might want a stronger candidate like him
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jimmie
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« Reply #14 on: November 21, 2020, 07:50:29 PM »

This could be a dem pick up if Ron Johnson retires...
Not in a Biden Midterm. Wisconsin has become a "True Swing State" now.

2016 Presidential Race

Donald Trump (R) 1,405,284 = 47.8 %
Hillary Clinton (D) 1,382,536 = 47.0 %

Trump wins by 22,748 Votes.

2018 Governor Race

Tony Evers (D) 1,324,307 = 49.6 %
Scott Walker (R) 1,295,080 = 48.5 %

Evers wins by 29,227 Votes.

2020 Presidential Race

Joe Biden (D) 1,630,716 = 49.4 %
Donald Trump (R) 1,610,151 = 48.8 %

Biden wins by 20,565 Votes.

Wisconsin has undergone a remarkable Political Transformation that started with the Elections of Scott Walker and Ron Johnson in 2010. The last 3 Big Races (2016-2020...Presidential & Governor Races) were all decided by less than 30K. Wisconsin is now a State that's permanently available for Republicans whether it's a Governor, Senate or Presidential Contest assuming they have a strong GOP Candidate.

I am very well aware of all this.

I am simply stating that Democrats will have it easier without Johnson. So I am in disagreement with the OP.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #15 on: November 21, 2020, 08:16:42 PM »

No because the country and maybe to a slight extent Democratic chances in the Wisconsin Senate race would be better off.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #16 on: November 21, 2020, 08:22:56 PM »

No. While Johnson is an imperfect representative of Wisconsin in many ways, he does have a brand of outspoken honesty that enough people find attractive. There are possible upgrades over him the GOP could nominate, but it's more likely they nominate Fitzgerald or Vos or someone with little appeal outside of WOW.

Honesty is what Wisconsin swing Baldwin/Johnson voters value Smiley

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2016
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« Reply #17 on: November 21, 2020, 08:46:47 PM »

This could be a dem pick up if Ron Johnson retires...
Not in a Biden Midterm. Wisconsin has become a "True Swing State" now.

2016 Presidential Race

Donald Trump (R) 1,405,284 = 47.8 %
Hillary Clinton (D) 1,382,536 = 47.0 %

Trump wins by 22,748 Votes.

2018 Governor Race

Tony Evers (D) 1,324,307 = 49.6 %
Scott Walker (R) 1,295,080 = 48.5 %

Evers wins by 29,227 Votes.

2020 Presidential Race

Joe Biden (D) 1,630,716 = 49.4 %
Donald Trump (R) 1,610,151 = 48.8 %

Biden wins by 20,565 Votes.

Wisconsin has undergone a remarkable Political Transformation that started with the Elections of Scott Walker and Ron Johnson in 2010. The last 3 Big Races (2016-2020...Presidential & Governor Races) were all decided by less than 30K. Wisconsin is now a State that's permanently available for Republicans whether it's a Governor, Senate or Presidential Contest assuming they have a strong GOP Candidate.

I am very well aware of all this.

I am simply stating that Democrats will have it easier without Johnson. So I am in disagreement with the OP.
Not sure about that! If those draconian lockdowns imposed by Governor Evers in Wisconsin continue he'll face a similar blowback like NC Governor Roy Cooper, who only won 51-47 this year.
Evers poor showing could drag down the D-Senate Candidate no matter if Johnson runs again or not.

I've already predicted that Evers will lose in 2022 along with Laura Kelly and Gretchen Whitmer.
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jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #18 on: November 21, 2020, 08:48:48 PM »

This could be a dem pick up if Ron Johnson retires...
Not in a Biden Midterm. Wisconsin has become a "True Swing State" now.

2016 Presidential Race

Donald Trump (R) 1,405,284 = 47.8 %
Hillary Clinton (D) 1,382,536 = 47.0 %

Trump wins by 22,748 Votes.

2018 Governor Race

Tony Evers (D) 1,324,307 = 49.6 %
Scott Walker (R) 1,295,080 = 48.5 %

Evers wins by 29,227 Votes.

2020 Presidential Race

Joe Biden (D) 1,630,716 = 49.4 %
Donald Trump (R) 1,610,151 = 48.8 %

Biden wins by 20,565 Votes.

Wisconsin has undergone a remarkable Political Transformation that started with the Elections of Scott Walker and Ron Johnson in 2010. The last 3 Big Races (2016-2020...Presidential & Governor Races) were all decided by less than 30K. Wisconsin is now a State that's permanently available for Republicans whether it's a Governor, Senate or Presidential Contest assuming they have a strong GOP Candidate.

I am very well aware of all this.

I am simply stating that Democrats will have it easier without Johnson. So I am in disagreement with the OP.
Not sure about that! If those draconian lockdowns imposed by Governor Evers in Wisconsin continue he'll face a similar blowback like NC Governor Roy Cooper, who only won 51-47 this year.
Evers poor showing could drag down the D-Senate Candidate no matter if Johnson runs again or not.

I've already predicted that Evers will lose in 2022 along with Laura Kelly and Gretchen Whitmer.

I am with you on lockdowns. They are counter productive at this point.
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2016
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« Reply #19 on: November 21, 2020, 09:22:00 PM »

This could be a dem pick up if Ron Johnson retires...
Not in a Biden Midterm. Wisconsin has become a "True Swing State" now.

2016 Presidential Race

Donald Trump (R) 1,405,284 = 47.8 %
Hillary Clinton (D) 1,382,536 = 47.0 %

Trump wins by 22,748 Votes.

2018 Governor Race

Tony Evers (D) 1,324,307 = 49.6 %
Scott Walker (R) 1,295,080 = 48.5 %

Evers wins by 29,227 Votes.

2020 Presidential Race

Joe Biden (D) 1,630,716 = 49.4 %
Donald Trump (R) 1,610,151 = 48.8 %

Biden wins by 20,565 Votes.

Wisconsin has undergone a remarkable Political Transformation that started with the Elections of Scott Walker and Ron Johnson in 2010. The last 3 Big Races (2016-2020...Presidential & Governor Races) were all decided by less than 30K. Wisconsin is now a State that's permanently available for Republicans whether it's a Governor, Senate or Presidential Contest assuming they have a strong GOP Candidate.

I am very well aware of all this.

I am simply stating that Democrats will have it easier without Johnson. So I am in disagreement with the OP.
Not sure about that! If those draconian lockdowns imposed by Governor Evers in Wisconsin continue he'll face a similar blowback like NC Governor Roy Cooper, who only won 51-47 this year.
Evers poor showing could drag down the D-Senate Candidate no matter if Johnson runs again or not.

I've already predicted that Evers will lose in 2022 along with Laura Kelly and Gretchen Whitmer.

I am with you on lockdowns. They are counter productive at this point.
Agreed! Lock down everything, flip a switch in 6 Weeks and say "Everything will be alright"? This ain't going to work. We have to deal with this virus at least for another year. We do need to make sure vulnerable get that vaccine as soon as it's available. That's the only thing we can do. People need to get their Businesses going. Shutting down large parts of the Country again will be catastrophic for the Economy. I am not sure Biden will be more successful containing COVID than Trump will be considering his CoS Ron Klain said Obama/Biden bungled up the swine flu but got lucky it didn't spead any further.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #20 on: November 22, 2020, 12:06:14 AM »

This could be a dem pick up if Ron Johnson retires...
Not in a Biden Midterm. Wisconsin has become a "True Swing State" now.

2016 Presidential Race

Donald Trump (R) 1,405,284 = 47.8 %
Hillary Clinton (D) 1,382,536 = 47.0 %

Trump wins by 22,748 Votes.

2018 Governor Race

Tony Evers (D) 1,324,307 = 49.6 %
Scott Walker (R) 1,295,080 = 48.5 %

Evers wins by 29,227 Votes.

2020 Presidential Race

Joe Biden (D) 1,630,716 = 49.4 %
Donald Trump (R) 1,610,151 = 48.8 %

Biden wins by 20,565 Votes.

Wisconsin has undergone a remarkable Political Transformation that started with the Elections of Scott Walker and Ron Johnson in 2010. The last 3 Big Races (2016-2020...Presidential & Governor Races) were all decided by less than 30K. Wisconsin is now a State that's permanently available for Republicans whether it's a Governor, Senate or Presidential Contest assuming they have a strong GOP Candidate.

Wisconsin's been a swing state for 20 years. Obama's strength in the Midwest and Feingold and Kohl's personal popularity just hid the fact. 2000, 2004, 2016, and 2020 were all decided by less than a point, making Wisconsin perhaps the most consistently close state.

On another note, Obama's coalition =/ the Democrat coalition, something that's becoming more and more clear.  Obama was truly a once in a generation politician and it'll be a long time before the Democrats find a candidate as strong as him. He simultaneously appealed to every facet of the electorate more than any other Democrat. I'm not sure any other Democrat could've won in 2012, let alone by 5 points in the tipping point.
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