Canada: Erin O'Toole's economic populist/working class strategy

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I'm not sure he would enjoy full-hearted support within the party - most of them genuinely believe in lower taxes and lighter regulations. He has not proposed anything to strengthen private-sector unions, which are largely outside federal jurisdiction anyway. His finance critic surely isn't on board with his left-sounding economic agenda, for starters. And we already have a party with an actual record of left-wing economics: the NDP.

His rhetoric about pipelines, and lack of a carbon emissions plan, would simply lead to the same problem that Scheer faced: he would pad up margins in already ultra-safe ridings, without gaining seats. Assuming that Biden keeps his promise to cancel Keystone XL, he will be dogged by questions on how he would change Biden's mind, and soundbites won't convince anyone.

He has a few good points to make, namely about China. That has in part forced the Liberals into a reality check.

It really depends on whether the intended audience sees it as authentic. And, whether he can out-Liberal the Liberals, who are the all-time world champions of campaigning on the left and governing in the mushy middle. But this time, the Liberals have been forced by circumstances to actually deliver some left-wing accomplishments. That complicates things further.

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That is not really a necessity though?

Like if the Conservatives + Bloc managed to get a majority between the 2, wouldn't that be enough to get a Tory minority government through? In that scenario, the Conservatives do not need to win most of rural Quebec to get into power. They just need the Bloc to do it for them.

Or are the differences between the 2 parties impossible to bridge?

Stephen Harper survived two minorities by taking advantage of Liberal weakness and sometimes appeasing the Bloc. When he smelt blood, he called an election and won a majority the second time.

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Not quite. Harper's government was defeated in a vote of no confidence called by the Liberals after some Tory cabinet ministers were found in contempt of parliament.

Harper was practically begging the Liberals to trigger an early election, which demonstrates that under Canadian tradition, minority governments are a waiting period before the ruling party finds a reason to gain a majority.

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If to be believed, it seems Kenney is really tanking in Alberta, so wonder if that will spillover provincially and cost Tories seats there.  Some polls suggest if an election were held today, Notley would win and this is without a split on the right.  Off course in Alberta its not unusual for federal counterparty to do a bit better, but typically only 10% higher, not 20-30% and that would put federal Tories around 50% in Alberta thus would hold most of their seats but still could lose some.

If O'Toole has to fight to hold onto his seats in Alberta, means less time and money spent elsewhere on offensive.  On other hand Quebec is known for big swings so can see why on Toute Parle le Monde as probably hoping for big swing, but seems very unlikely, but Quebec often doesn't show its cards until 2 weeks before election day.

I'm expecting Trudeau to call a federal election in the fall of 2021, or spring of 2022 at the latest. By then, most Canadians will have been vaccinated, and he would be enjoying the fruits of the rebounding economy. Also, he would want to call a federal election before the next Ontario election due in June 2022, so that he could run against Doug Ford again.

Canadians outside Ontario generally don't take their anger against the provincial government in federal elections, so O'Toole shouldn't need to worry about seats in Alberta. Unless he provokes a split on the right from someone more competent than Bernier.

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Although Doug Ford now has a positive approval rating.  Yes fallen back a bit, but still way higher than in 2019.  Now yes tough to say if it holds, although I would think vaccination and rebounding economy would help provincial premiers too.  I think 2023-2025 is going to be the tough part for incumbents as bills will come due and that will mean tough and unpopular choices regardless of political stripe.

The OLP leader is a complete nobody. Yes, a complete nobody did beat Doug Ford's idol, but June 2022 will be a different world. If your forced me to predict the next Ontario vote, I would choose another Ford majority.

Still, Trudeau is now rolling out major expansions in government programs, with the pandemic as an excellent opportunity. He can use the next federal election to contrast himself with the stingier premiers, the biggest one (literally and figuratively) being Ford.

The wild card is, as you mentioned, with finance. It's not a problem now when interest rates are rock-bottom (in fact it's criminally insane not to binge-spend on investments when interest rates are at zero). It won't even be a problem when all the world's major economies are simultaneously at zero interest rates. But we're in for a rude shock if inflation suddenly picks up.

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Interesting. But O'Toole is hardly a SoCon. Didn't he say something about supporting the LGBT+ community after he won?

True, but I think real challenge for Conservatives is those who don't want to see them gain power will always take most extreme elements and then try to paint whole party like that and it usually works.  Its why Conservatives have such a tough time winning.  I don't know many on left who vote conservative, but know lots on right on who won't even if their views align as they buy all the negative stereotypes.  Problem for Tories is they are big on free speech so trying to limit dissent goes against ideology, but makes it easy for opponents to paint them with a negative brush.

My earlier take:

The "mean" CPC MP represents a constituency in a western province, and/or outside a major city. The party imagines itself as a big-tent encompassing everyone from the religious right to pro-business conservatives.

The CPC has a national floor of about 30%, and its way to power requires winning 40% of the popular vote and breaking through the suburbs of both the GTA and Metro Vancouver.

About 10-15% of the Canadian population can be considered social conservative, mostly Christian. This small minority becomes influential among the party base, and the last two leadership elections saw the "establishment" candidate defeated by a candidate who won the support of social conservatives on subsequent ballots. Conservative leaders naturally come with the dilemma of having to please social conservatives to win the leadership, while appealing to suburban, socially moderate voters to win power.

Harper did it, thanks in large part to Liberal disarray. He was also very effective at controlling the wingnuts in the party.

Scheer failed. He actually Hillary'd/Gore'd, as he ran up the score in the prairie provinces while narrowly losing dozens of suburban seats.

It's still early for O'Toole, but he hasn't been good at controlling his Fox News-watching wingnuts.

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My overall point though is for Conservatives to do better in Quebec why not run some sort of Quebec style conservative party(if there isnt then create one) to get some seats in Quebec which then later would form a coalition with the Canadian conservative party

The Bloc has pivoted from a hard nationalist party into a catch-all Quebec regionalist party, and last year rode the coattails of Legeault's popularity to regain its foothold.

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So sort of a friendlier, more intelligent Trumpism with some almost Berniecratic elements? If the GOP followed this route they could perhaps make me and many others swing voters. They never will though.

There's another factor here, though.

The party is unable - or unwilling - to control its wingnuts. Just today, Pierre Polievre tweeted that a video where Chrystia Freeland called on wealthier Canadians whose accounts have fattened to spend more to stimulate the economy, was a communist plot. And this was just a few days after Derek Sloan, who previously dabbled in WHO/UN/CCP conspiracy theories, circulated a petition that peddled anti-vaxxer conspiracy theories. Wingnuts arguably cost the CPC the 2004 and 2019 elections.

If O'Toole is unable or unwilling to control his party's wingnuts the way Harper did, then he will become another also-ran.

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I'll pay a billion dollars to be the fly in the room to see Pierre Polilevre lose his seat. A conspiracy theory-tweeting lifetime party hack is the worst possible fit for a constituency which is resembling Loudoun County, VA. He slinked out after the last redistricting by choosing a more exurban seat, and barely won in 2015. He won more handily in 2019. Another Liberal majority would definitely take him out.

This is as far as vitriol will ever get in Canadian politics.