Canada: Erin O'Toole's economic populist/working class strategy

[mileslunn]

Ridings the Conservatives won in 2008 but seem out of reach today (boundaries have shifted somewhat since)

Saanich-Gulf Islands
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast
North Vancouver
Fleetwood-Port Kells
Surrey Centre (formerly Surrey North)
Waterloo
Burlington
Oakville
Milton (formerly Halton)
Nepean (formerly Nepean-Carleton)
Ottawa West-Nepean
Orleans

West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast if right splits still winnable.  Burlington, Oakville, Milton, and Nepean all voted for Doug Ford so they may not be as favourable as a decade ago but still winneable under right conditions.  Fleetwood-Port Kells was pretty close, but a lot depends on having strong splits on left to win there. 

North Vancouver probably right and agreed on Saanich-Gulf Islands, Surrey Centre, Waterloo, Orleans, and Ottawa West-Nepean.  I would also add Kitchener Centre and London West as another two that are probably unwinnable today.  Even Winnipeg South Centre seems a bit of a stretch too.  Don Valley West I am torn on as Doug Ford fell short there but not by much and Kathleen Wynne is well liked in her constituency, but certainly its a long shot and only winneable in a really good election.

[mileslunn]

If to be believed, it seems Kenney is really tanking in Alberta, so wonder if that will spillover provincially and cost Tories seats there.  Some polls suggest if an election were held today, Notley would win and this is without a split on the right.  Off course in Alberta its not unusual for federal counterparty to do a bit better, but typically only 10% higher, not 20-30% and that would put federal Tories around 50% in Alberta thus would hold most of their seats but still could lose some.

If O'Toole has to fight to hold onto his seats in Alberta, means less time and money spent elsewhere on offensive.  On other hand Quebec is known for big swings so can see why on Toute Parle le Monde as probably hoping for big swing, but seems very unlikely, but Quebec often doesn't show its cards until 2 weeks before election day.

[mileslunn]

If to be believed, it seems Kenney is really tanking in Alberta, so wonder if that will spillover provincially and cost Tories seats there.  Some polls suggest if an election were held today, Notley would win and this is without a split on the right.  Off course in Alberta its not unusual for federal counterparty to do a bit better, but typically only 10% higher, not 20-30% and that would put federal Tories around 50% in Alberta thus would hold most of their seats but still could lose some.

If O'Toole has to fight to hold onto his seats in Alberta, means less time and money spent elsewhere on offensive.  On other hand Quebec is known for big swings so can see why on Toute Parle le Monde as probably hoping for big swing, but seems very unlikely, but Quebec often doesn't show its cards until 2 weeks before election day.

I'm expecting Trudeau to call a federal election in the fall of 2021, or spring of 2022 at the latest. By then, most Canadians will have been vaccinated, and he would be enjoying the fruits of the rebounding economy. Also, he would want to call a federal election before the next Ontario election due in June 2022, so that he could run against Doug Ford again.

Canadians outside Ontario generally don't take their anger against the provincial government in federal elections, so O'Toole shouldn't need to worry about seats in Alberta. Unless he provokes a split on the right from someone more competent than Bernier.

Although Doug Ford now has a positive approval rating.  Yes fallen back a bit, but still way higher than in 2019.  Now yes tough to say if it holds, although I would think vaccination and rebounding economy would help provincial premiers too.  I think 2023-2025 is going to be the tough part for incumbents as bills will come due and that will mean tough and unpopular choices regardless of political stripe.

[mileslunn]

Although Doug Ford now has a positive approval rating.  Yes fallen back a bit, but still way higher than in 2019.  Now yes tough to say if it holds, although I would think vaccination and rebounding economy would help provincial premiers too.  I think 2023-2025 is going to be the tough part for incumbents as bills will come due and that will mean tough and unpopular choices regardless of political stripe.

The OLP leader is a complete nobody. Yes, a complete nobody did beat Doug Ford's idol, but June 2022 will be a different world. If your forced me to predict the next Ontario vote, I would choose another Ford majority.

Still, Trudeau is now rolling out major expansions in government programs, with the pandemic as an excellent opportunity. He can use the next federal election to contrast himself with the stingier premiers, the biggest one (literally and figuratively) being Ford.

The wild card is, as you mentioned, with finance. It's not a problem now when interest rates are rock-bottom (in fact it's criminally insane not to binge-spend on investments when interest rates are at zero). It won't even be a problem when all the world's major economies are simultaneously at zero interest rates. But we're in for a rude shock if inflation suddenly picks up.

Knowing this I think Trudeau once vaccinations complete will want to go soon so he can spend a lot and not have to worry about deficits being a political risk.  And if they do he has a majority and probably his last term anyways so no worries about re-election.

[mileslunn]

I think bigger problem Tories have is what do they stand for?  Trying to be Liberal lite won't work as people will vote for real one and most will think they have a hidden agenda and just pretending.  On right social and cultural conservatism is a dead end.  Idea of fiscally conservative but socially liberal used to work, but with pandemic, I don't think idea of less regulations, lower taxes, or balanced budgets has much traction.  Yes for conservative governments already in office, they can pivot like Ford and Legault has thus win but hard if on outside.  Kenney hasn't pivoted and he is in big trouble in Canada's most conservative province.  In fact if an election were held today, Notley would likely win in Alberta.  So I think bigger problem is public firmly at moment sits on left thus ensuring conservatives remain a minority party.

Now yes, things can and will swing, but probably the election after next, not next one.

[mileslunn]

Interesting. But O'Toole is hardly a SoCon. Didn't he say something about supporting the LGBT+ community after he won?

True, but I think real challenge for Conservatives is those who don't want to see them gain power will always take most extreme elements and then try to paint whole party like that and it usually works.  Its why Conservatives have such a tough time winning.  I don't know many on left who vote conservative, but know lots on right on who won't even if their views align as they buy all the negative stereotypes.  Problem for Tories is they are big on free speech so trying to limit dissent goes against ideology, but makes it easy for opponents to paint them with a negative brush.

[mileslunn]

Actually suggestion on CAQ has some logic.  Australia and Germany do this with their conservatives.  In Australia, Liberals only run in urban and suburban areas while National only in rural areas.  Same in Germany with CDU everywhere except Bavaria while CSU in Bavaria only and it seems to work.  But with Canadians not used to this, may be a challenge.

[mileslunn]

Agreed on CAQ and also Quebecers tend to outside Anglos in Montreal have very shallow loyalties to federal parties and can change on a dime's notice thus Legault saying party will stay neutral is probably a smart move long term.  Doesn't get dragged down by any federal leader becoming unpopular.