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December 03, 2020, 02:37:28 AM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

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  Canada: Erin O'Toole's economic populist/working class strategy
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Author Topic: Canada: Erin O'Toole's economic populist/working class strategy  (Read 957 times)
King of Kensington
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« on: November 20, 2020, 10:55:51 PM »

Erin O'Toole is appealing to the "left behind" working class with populist messaging and saying nice things about private sector unions, championing pipelines and the resource sector as a job strategy, combined with some cultural conservatism about "wokeness", Canadian nationalism etc.

Some more orthodox conservatives are apparently calling him "Bernie O'Toole" while liberals and the left are saying he is "taking from Trump's playbook."

Will it work?
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exnaderite
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« Reply #1 on: November 21, 2020, 02:08:47 AM »

I'm not sure he would enjoy full-hearted support within the party - most of them genuinely believe in lower taxes and lighter regulations. He has not proposed anything to strengthen private-sector unions, which are largely outside federal jurisdiction anyway. His finance critic surely isn't on board with his left-sounding economic agenda, for starters. And we already have a party with an actual record of left-wing economics: the NDP.

His rhetoric about pipelines, and lack of a carbon emissions plan, would simply lead to the same problem that Scheer faced: he would pad up margins in already ultra-safe ridings, without gaining seats. Assuming that Biden keeps his promise to cancel Keystone XL, he will be dogged by questions on how he would change Biden's mind, and soundbites won't convince anyone.

He has a few good points to make, namely about China. That has in part forced the Liberals into a reality check.

It really depends on whether the intended audience sees it as authentic. And, whether he can out-Liberal the Liberals, who are the all-time world champions of campaigning on the left and governing in the mushy middle. But this time, the Liberals have been forced by circumstances to actually deliver some left-wing accomplishments. That complicates things further.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #2 on: November 21, 2020, 07:07:09 AM »

It is notable, though, that the right are increasingly turning to economic populism in a rhetorical sense (even if concrete actions are a bit thinner on the ground) Which leaves centrist types (in various parties) as the main ones still uncritically defending globalisation.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #3 on: November 22, 2020, 07:22:11 AM »
« Edited: November 22, 2020, 01:38:34 PM by DC Al Fine »

Erin O'Toole is appealing to the "left behind" working class with populist messaging and saying nice things about private sector unions, championing pipelines and the resource sector as a job strategy, combined with some cultural conservatism about "wokeness", Canadian nationalism etc.

Some more orthodox conservatives are apparently calling him "Bernie O'Toole" while liberals and the left are saying he is "taking from Trump's playbook."

Will it work?

I'm not sure if it will work, but we have to try *something*.

The Tory coalition, while substantial, isn't quite big enough to put them over the top most of the time. We need to pick off an underserved group from another party's coalition. In a perfect world, that would be rural Quebecers but:

a) I don't think the Bloc is underserving them
b) We've been trying to crack that nut for over a century, with very little lasting success.

On the other hand, when I watch the NDP and Liberals, I don't get the impression that they're serving their traditional blue collar base particularly well. Liberal and NDP messaging over the past several years seems to have shifted more towards the priorities of the educated, white collar progressive voter. Given trends in the rest of Anglosphere, I think it's worth a shot to try and pick off some of those blue collar voters.

On a personal note, social conservatives and other parts of the Tory coalition have spent the past couple decades being told by the business conservatives that we need to put our priorities on hold in favour of business concerns for the sake of electability... so I'm quite amused to see pundits like Andrew Coyne and large chunks of that National Post opinion page rend their garments at the prospect of their priorities being sidelined in favour of a more nationalistic Tory agenda.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #4 on: November 22, 2020, 07:24:32 AM »

I'd also add O'Toole's hawkishness on China as a good example of where his shift can make gains. The Liberals have been pretty weak on this issue, and it's the sort of line that can attract new voters and keeps his base happy.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #5 on: November 22, 2020, 02:13:30 PM »

Coyne voted for Stockwell Day's Alliance in 2000, Michael Ignatieff in 2011 and Tom Mulcair in 2015.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #6 on: November 22, 2020, 02:15:26 PM »

O'Toole seems to be a 21st century version of John Diefenbaker.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #7 on: November 22, 2020, 05:33:45 PM »

Coyne voted for Stockwell Day's Alliance in 2000, Michael Ignatieff in 2011 and Tom Mulcair in 2015.

Lol, that makes the handwringing even funnier.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #8 on: November 22, 2020, 10:55:13 PM »

Ridings where O'Toole's "left behind" working class strategy could play well:

Vancouver Island North-Powell River BC (NDP)
Skeena-Bulkley Valley BC (NDP)
BC Southern Interior (NDP)
Elmwood-Transcona MB (NDP)
Thunder Bay-Rainy River ON (Liberals)
Sault Ste. Marie ON (Liberals)
Windsor-Tecumseh ON (Liberals)
Cambridge ON (Liberals)
Niagara Centre ON (Liberals)
St. Catharines ON (Liberals)
Peterborough ON (Liberals)
Bay of Quinte ON (Liberals)
Saint John NB (Liberals)
Cape Breton-Canso NS (Liberals)
Sydney-Victoria NS (Liberals)
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #9 on: November 23, 2020, 05:06:28 AM »

O'Toole seems to be a 21st century version of John Diefenbaker.

That is quite a claim tbh, bit too soon to say that IMO.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #10 on: November 24, 2020, 06:20:20 PM »

Ridings the Conservatives won in 2008 but seem out of reach today (boundaries have shifted somewhat since)

Saanich-Gulf Islands
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast
North Vancouver
Fleetwood-Port Kells
Surrey Centre (formerly Surrey North)
Waterloo
Burlington
Oakville
Milton (formerly Halton)
Nepean (formerly Nepean-Carleton)
Ottawa West-Nepean
Orleans
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tack50
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« Reply #11 on: November 24, 2020, 07:35:29 PM »

Erin O'Toole is appealing to the "left behind" working class with populist messaging and saying nice things about private sector unions, championing pipelines and the resource sector as a job strategy, combined with some cultural conservatism about "wokeness", Canadian nationalism etc.

Some more orthodox conservatives are apparently calling him "Bernie O'Toole" while liberals and the left are saying he is "taking from Trump's playbook."

Will it work?

I'm not sure if it will work, but we have to try *something*.

The Tory coalition, while substantial, isn't quite big enough to put them over the top most of the time. We need to pick off an underserved group from another party's coalition. In a perfect world, that would be rural Quebecers but:

a) I don't think the Bloc is underserving them
b) We've been trying to crack that nut for over a century, with very little lasting success.

That is not really a necessity though?

Like if the Conservatives + Bloc managed to get a majority between the 2, wouldn't that be enough to get a Tory minority government through? In that scenario, the Conservatives do not need to win most of rural Quebec to get into power. They just need the Bloc to do it for them.

Or are the differences between the 2 parties impossible to bridge?
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exnaderite
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« Reply #12 on: November 24, 2020, 08:57:23 PM »

That is not really a necessity though?

Like if the Conservatives + Bloc managed to get a majority between the 2, wouldn't that be enough to get a Tory minority government through? In that scenario, the Conservatives do not need to win most of rural Quebec to get into power. They just need the Bloc to do it for them.

Or are the differences between the 2 parties impossible to bridge?
Stephen Harper survived two minorities by taking advantage of Liberal weakness and sometimes appeasing the Bloc. When he smelt blood, he called an election and won a majority the second time.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #13 on: November 24, 2020, 11:45:27 PM »

Ridings the Conservatives won in 2008 but seem out of reach today (boundaries have shifted somewhat since)

Saanich-Gulf Islands
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast
North Vancouver
Fleetwood-Port Kells
Surrey Centre (formerly Surrey North)
Waterloo
Burlington
Oakville
Milton (formerly Halton)
Nepean (formerly Nepean-Carleton)
Ottawa West-Nepean
Orleans


West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast if right splits still winnable.  Burlington, Oakville, Milton, and Nepean all voted for Doug Ford so they may not be as favourable as a decade ago but still winneable under right conditions.  Fleetwood-Port Kells was pretty close, but a lot depends on having strong splits on left to win there. 

North Vancouver probably right and agreed on Saanich-Gulf Islands, Surrey Centre, Waterloo, Orleans, and Ottawa West-Nepean.  I would also add Kitchener Centre and London West as another two that are probably unwinnable today.  Even Winnipeg South Centre seems a bit of a stretch too.  Don Valley West I am torn on as Doug Ford fell short there but not by much and Kathleen Wynne is well liked in her constituency, but certainly its a long shot and only winneable in a really good election.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #14 on: November 25, 2020, 05:49:37 AM »

That is not really a necessity though?

Like if the Conservatives + Bloc managed to get a majority between the 2, wouldn't that be enough to get a Tory minority government through? In that scenario, the Conservatives do not need to win most of rural Quebec to get into power. They just need the Bloc to do it for them.

Or are the differences between the 2 parties impossible to bridge?

Stephen Harper survived two minorities by taking advantage of Liberal weakness and sometimes appeasing the Bloc. When he smelt blood, he called an election and won a majority the second time.

To add to what Exnaderite said: we could technically do what you described, but under FPTP, everyone treats minorities as an inconvenience and majorities as the real prize.
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laddicus finch
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« Reply #15 on: November 26, 2020, 01:10:59 AM »

Erin O'Toole is appealing to the "left behind" working class with populist messaging and saying nice things about private sector unions, championing pipelines and the resource sector as a job strategy, combined with some cultural conservatism about "wokeness", Canadian nationalism etc.

Some more orthodox conservatives are apparently calling him "Bernie O'Toole" while liberals and the left are saying he is "taking from Trump's playbook."

Will it work?

I'm not sure if it will work, but we have to try *something*.

The Tory coalition, while substantial, isn't quite big enough to put them over the top most of the time. We need to pick off an underserved group from another party's coalition. In a perfect world, that would be rural Quebecers but:

a) I don't think the Bloc is underserving them
b) We've been trying to crack that nut for over a century, with very little lasting success.

That is not really a necessity though?

Like if the Conservatives + Bloc managed to get a majority between the 2, wouldn't that be enough to get a Tory minority government through? In that scenario, the Conservatives do not need to win most of rural Quebec to get into power. They just need the Bloc to do it for them.

Or are the differences between the 2 parties impossible to bridge?

As of right now, the Bloc will just support whichever party has the plurality of seats. Quebec nationalists hate both the Liberals and Conservatives, but for different reasons--they align more with Liberals on economic and social issues, but more with the Conservatives on issues of decentralization and provincial autonomy. The Bloc side with whoever has more seats, because they don't want to be seen as either too pro-Liberal or pro-Conservative. That would undercut the whole point of the Bloc.
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cp
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« Reply #16 on: November 26, 2020, 03:32:29 AM »

That is not really a necessity though?

Like if the Conservatives + Bloc managed to get a majority between the 2, wouldn't that be enough to get a Tory minority government through? In that scenario, the Conservatives do not need to win most of rural Quebec to get into power. They just need the Bloc to do it for them.

Or are the differences between the 2 parties impossible to bridge?
Stephen Harper survived two minorities by taking advantage of Liberal weakness and sometimes appeasing the Bloc. When he smelt blood, he called an election and won a majority the second time.

Not quite. Harper's government was defeated in a vote of no confidence called by the Liberals after some Tory cabinet ministers were found in contempt of parliament.

Also, unless Harper really is the necromancer he sometimes comes off like, I think the word you're looking for is 'smelled'.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #17 on: November 26, 2020, 05:18:43 PM »

Not quite. Harper's government was defeated in a vote of no confidence called by the Liberals after some Tory cabinet ministers were found in contempt of parliament.

Harper was practically begging the Liberals to trigger an early election, which demonstrates that under Canadian tradition, minority governments are a waiting period before the ruling party finds a reason to gain a majority.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #18 on: November 27, 2020, 06:36:40 AM »

Begging or not, I really have to question the opposition's wisdom in forcing an election when the government is *checks wiki* at 39% in the polls Tongue
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mileslunn
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« Reply #19 on: December 02, 2020, 03:38:44 AM »

If to be believed, it seems Kenney is really tanking in Alberta, so wonder if that will spillover provincially and cost Tories seats there.  Some polls suggest if an election were held today, Notley would win and this is without a split on the right.  Off course in Alberta its not unusual for federal counterparty to do a bit better, but typically only 10% higher, not 20-30% and that would put federal Tories around 50% in Alberta thus would hold most of their seats but still could lose some.

If O'Toole has to fight to hold onto his seats in Alberta, means less time and money spent elsewhere on offensive.  On other hand Quebec is known for big swings so can see why on Toute Parle le Monde as probably hoping for big swing, but seems very unlikely, but Quebec often doesn't show its cards until 2 weeks before election day.
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Ernest
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« Reply #20 on: December 02, 2020, 08:42:36 AM »

Erin O'Toole is appealing to the "left behind" working class with populist messaging and saying nice things about private sector unions, championing pipelines and the resource sector as a job strategy, combined with some cultural conservatism about "wokeness", Canadian nationalism etc.

Some more orthodox conservatives are apparently calling him "Bernie O'Toole" while liberals and the left are saying he is "taking from Trump's playbook."

Will it work?

The important thing is has he changed his stance on sneakers?
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #21 on: December 02, 2020, 05:45:34 PM »

If to be believed, it seems Kenney is really tanking in Alberta, so wonder if that will spillover provincially and cost Tories seats there.  Some polls suggest if an election were held today, Notley would win and this is without a split on the right.  Off course in Alberta its not unusual for federal counterparty to do a bit better, but typically only 10% higher, not 20-30% and that would put federal Tories around 50% in Alberta thus would hold most of their seats but still could lose some.

If O'Toole has to fight to hold onto his seats in Alberta, means less time and money spent elsewhere on offensive.  On other hand Quebec is known for big swings so can see why on Toute Parle le Monde as probably hoping for big swing, but seems very unlikely, but Quebec often doesn't show its cards until 2 weeks before election day.

The Tories could certainly lose some seats in central and NE Calgary and in Edmonton.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #22 on: December 02, 2020, 05:53:27 PM »

If to be believed, it seems Kenney is really tanking in Alberta, so wonder if that will spillover provincially and cost Tories seats there.  Some polls suggest if an election were held today, Notley would win and this is without a split on the right.  Off course in Alberta its not unusual for federal counterparty to do a bit better, but typically only 10% higher, not 20-30% and that would put federal Tories around 50% in Alberta thus would hold most of their seats but still could lose some.

If O'Toole has to fight to hold onto his seats in Alberta, means less time and money spent elsewhere on offensive.  On other hand Quebec is known for big swings so can see why on Toute Parle le Monde as probably hoping for big swing, but seems very unlikely, but Quebec often doesn't show its cards until 2 weeks before election day.
I'm expecting Trudeau to call a federal election in the fall of 2021, or spring of 2022 at the latest. By then, most Canadians will have been vaccinated, and he would be enjoying the fruits of the rebounding economy. Also, he would want to call a federal election before the next Ontario election due in June 2022, so that he could run against Doug Ford again.

Canadians outside Ontario generally don't take their anger against the provincial government in federal elections, so O'Toole shouldn't need to worry about seats in Alberta. Unless he provokes a split on the right from someone more competent than Bernier.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #23 on: December 02, 2020, 05:55:32 PM »

If to be believed, it seems Kenney is really tanking in Alberta, so wonder if that will spillover provincially and cost Tories seats there.  Some polls suggest if an election were held today, Notley would win and this is without a split on the right.  Off course in Alberta its not unusual for federal counterparty to do a bit better, but typically only 10% higher, not 20-30% and that would put federal Tories around 50% in Alberta thus would hold most of their seats but still could lose some.

If O'Toole has to fight to hold onto his seats in Alberta, means less time and money spent elsewhere on offensive.  On other hand Quebec is known for big swings so can see why on Toute Parle le Monde as probably hoping for big swing, but seems very unlikely, but Quebec often doesn't show its cards until 2 weeks before election day.
I'm expecting Trudeau to call a federal election in the fall of 2021, or spring of 2022 at the latest. By then, most Canadians will have been vaccinated, and he would be enjoying the fruits of the rebounding economy. Also, he would want to call a federal election before the next Ontario election due in June 2022, so that he could run against Doug Ford again.

Canadians outside Ontario generally don't take their anger against the provincial government in federal elections, so O'Toole shouldn't need to worry about seats in Alberta. Unless he provokes a split on the right from someone more competent than Bernier.

Although Doug Ford now has a positive approval rating.  Yes fallen back a bit, but still way higher than in 2019.  Now yes tough to say if it holds, although I would think vaccination and rebounding economy would help provincial premiers too.  I think 2023-2025 is going to be the tough part for incumbents as bills will come due and that will mean tough and unpopular choices regardless of political stripe.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #24 on: December 02, 2020, 06:07:28 PM »

Although Doug Ford now has a positive approval rating.  Yes fallen back a bit, but still way higher than in 2019.  Now yes tough to say if it holds, although I would think vaccination and rebounding economy would help provincial premiers too.  I think 2023-2025 is going to be the tough part for incumbents as bills will come due and that will mean tough and unpopular choices regardless of political stripe.
The OLP leader is a complete nobody. Yes, a complete nobody did beat Doug Ford's idol, but June 2022 will be a different world. If your forced me to predict the next Ontario vote, I would choose another Ford majority.

Still, Trudeau is now rolling out major expansions in government programs, with the pandemic as an excellent opportunity. He can use the next federal election to contrast himself with the stingier premiers, the biggest one (literally and figuratively) being Ford.

The wild card is, as you mentioned, with finance. It's not a problem now when interest rates are rock-bottom (in fact it's criminally insane not to binge-spend on investments when interest rates are at zero). It won't even be a problem when all the world's major economies are simultaneously at zero interest rates. But we're in for a rude shock if inflation suddenly picks up.
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