Canada: Erin O'Toole's economic populist/working class strategy

[mileslunn]

Although Doug Ford now has a positive approval rating.  Yes fallen back a bit, but still way higher than in 2019.  Now yes tough to say if it holds, although I would think vaccination and rebounding economy would help provincial premiers too.  I think 2023-2025 is going to be the tough part for incumbents as bills will come due and that will mean tough and unpopular choices regardless of political stripe.

The OLP leader is a complete nobody. Yes, a complete nobody did beat Doug Ford's idol, but June 2022 will be a different world. If your forced me to predict the next Ontario vote, I would choose another Ford majority.

Still, Trudeau is now rolling out major expansions in government programs, with the pandemic as an excellent opportunity. He can use the next federal election to contrast himself with the stingier premiers, the biggest one (literally and figuratively) being Ford.

The wild card is, as you mentioned, with finance. It's not a problem now when interest rates are rock-bottom (in fact it's criminally insane not to binge-spend on investments when interest rates are at zero). It won't even be a problem when all the world's major economies are simultaneously at zero interest rates. But we're in for a rude shock if inflation suddenly picks up.

Knowing this I think Trudeau once vaccinations complete will want to go soon so he can spend a lot and not have to worry about deficits being a political risk.  And if they do he has a majority and probably his last term anyways so no worries about re-election.

[TopShelfGoal]

^^ I don't think Trudeau is too worried about holding off on an election until there's a vaccine. Several provincial governments held elections during the pandemic (including BC the most opportunistic of them all) and none were punished by the voters.

I think the Liberals wouldn't mind going to an election tomorrow if it were up to them but they don't want to be seen as being opportunistic considering the polls have them in majority territory but not comfortably in majority territory as was the case in the spring/early summer before the WE scandal so there isn't a whole lot of margin of error.

[TopShelfGoal]

That is not really a necessity though?

Like if the Conservatives + Bloc managed to get a majority between the 2, wouldn't that be enough to get a Tory minority government through? In that scenario, the Conservatives do not need to win most of rural Quebec to get into power. They just need the Bloc to do it for them.

Or are the differences between the 2 parties impossible to bridge?

Bloc is not a natural ally for the Conservatives as they are significantly to the left. They are further to the left than Liberals, somewhere in the NDP ballpark. Policywise on an issue by issue basis Conservatives are closer to Liberals than they are to the Bloc. As such that makes any Conservative-Bloc alliance very awkward. They won't have much time for signature CPC policies like tax cuts and reducing the size of the government. That is not to say they won't support a CPC govt, they have in the past if they are pissed enough at the Liberals but it is not a match made in heaven and will require significant compromise from the Conservatives. Additionally being seen as the ones propping a CPC govt presents quantifiable risk for them as their base could start looking elsewhere- NDP did gangbusters in Bloc strongholds in 2011 so their voters are not shy about voting NDP.

[CumbrianLefty]

^^ I don't think Trudeau is too worried about holding off on an election until there's a vaccine. Several provincial governments held elections during the pandemic (including BC the most opportunistic of them all) and none were punished by the voters.

I think the Liberals wouldn't mind going to an election tomorrow if it were up to them but they don't want to be seen as being opportunistic considering the polls have them in majority territory but not comfortably in majority territory as was the case in the spring/early summer before the WE scandal so there isn't a whole lot of margin of error.

Yes, surely the way the last GE campaign went will make them a bit cautious as well?

[DC Al Fine]

Although Doug Ford now has a positive approval rating.  Yes fallen back a bit, but still way higher than in 2019.  Now yes tough to say if it holds, although I would think vaccination and rebounding economy would help provincial premiers too.  I think 2023-2025 is going to be the tough part for incumbents as bills will come due and that will mean tough and unpopular choices regardless of political stripe.

The OLP leader is a complete nobody. Yes, a complete nobody did beat Doug Ford's idol, but June 2022 will be a different world. If your forced me to predict the next Ontario vote, I would choose another Ford majority.

Still, Trudeau is now rolling out major expansions in government programs, with the pandemic as an excellent opportunity. He can use the next federal election to contrast himself with the stingier premiers, the biggest one (literally and figuratively) being Ford.

The wild card is, as you mentioned, with finance. It's not a problem now when interest rates are rock-bottom (in fact it's criminally insane not to binge-spend on investments when interest rates are at zero). It won't even be a problem when all the world's major economies are simultaneously at zero interest rates. But we're in for a rude shock if inflation suddenly picks up.

Knowing this I think Trudeau once vaccinations complete will want to go soon so he can spend a lot and not have to worry about deficits being a political risk.  And if they do he has a majority and probably his last term anyways so no worries about re-election.

Two thoughts:

1) I'd go a little sooner than that depending on the speed of the recovery. If it's mid 2022, we're all vaccinated and unemployment is still 9%, the concern might just be old fashioned being blamed for a bad economy rather than deficit concerns.

2) To what MABA said, it occurs to me, that the Feds have A LOT more fiscal wiggle room than the provinces. The federal deficit day of reckoning might be a long ways off, while the provincial ones (particularly Alberta and Newfoundland) might be closer than we think.

[mileslunn]

I think bigger problem Tories have is what do they stand for?  Trying to be Liberal lite won't work as people will vote for real one and most will think they have a hidden agenda and just pretending.  On right social and cultural conservatism is a dead end.  Idea of fiscally conservative but socially liberal used to work, but with pandemic, I don't think idea of less regulations, lower taxes, or balanced budgets has much traction.  Yes for conservative governments already in office, they can pivot like Ford and Legault has thus win but hard if on outside.  Kenney hasn't pivoted and he is in big trouble in Canada's most conservative province.  In fact if an election were held today, Notley would likely win in Alberta.  So I think bigger problem is public firmly at moment sits on left thus ensuring conservatives remain a minority party.

Now yes, things can and will swing, but probably the election after next, not next one.

[KaiserDave]

Interesting. But O'Toole is hardly a SoCon. Didn't he say something about supporting the LGBT+ community after he won?

[mileslunn]

Interesting. But O'Toole is hardly a SoCon. Didn't he say something about supporting the LGBT+ community after he won?

True, but I think real challenge for Conservatives is those who don't want to see them gain power will always take most extreme elements and then try to paint whole party like that and it usually works.  Its why Conservatives have such a tough time winning.  I don't know many on left who vote conservative, but know lots on right on who won't even if their views align as they buy all the negative stereotypes.  Problem for Tories is they are big on free speech so trying to limit dissent goes against ideology, but makes it easy for opponents to paint them with a negative brush.

[2952-0-0]

Interesting. But O'Toole is hardly a SoCon. Didn't he say something about supporting the LGBT+ community after he won?

True, but I think real challenge for Conservatives is those who don't want to see them gain power will always take most extreme elements and then try to paint whole party like that and it usually works.  Its why Conservatives have such a tough time winning.  I don't know many on left who vote conservative, but know lots on right on who won't even if their views align as they buy all the negative stereotypes.  Problem for Tories is they are big on free speech so trying to limit dissent goes against ideology, but makes it easy for opponents to paint them with a negative brush.

My earlier take:

The "mean" CPC MP represents a constituency in a western province, and/or outside a major city. The party imagines itself as a big-tent encompassing everyone from the religious right to pro-business conservatives.

The CPC has a national floor of about 30%, and its way to power requires winning 40% of the popular vote and breaking through the suburbs of both the GTA and Metro Vancouver.

About 10-15% of the Canadian population can be considered social conservative, mostly Christian. This small minority becomes influential among the party base, and the last two leadership elections saw the "establishment" candidate defeated by a candidate who won the support of social conservatives on subsequent ballots. Conservative leaders naturally come with the dilemma of having to please social conservatives to win the leadership, while appealing to suburban, socially moderate voters to win power.

Harper did it, thanks in large part to Liberal disarray. He was also very effective at controlling the wingnuts in the party.

Scheer failed. He actually Hillary'd/Gore'd, as he ran up the score in the prairie provinces while narrowly losing dozens of suburban seats.

It's still early for O'Toole, but he hasn't been good at controlling his Fox News-watching wingnuts.

[DC Al Fine]

Interesting. But O'Toole is hardly a SoCon. Didn't he say something about supporting the LGBT+ community after he won?

True, but I think real challenge for Conservatives is those who don't want to see them gain power will always take most extreme elements and then try to paint whole party like that and it usually works.  Its why Conservatives have such a tough time winning.  I don't know many on left who vote conservative, but know lots on right on who won't even if their views align as they buy all the negative stereotypes.  Problem for Tories is they are big on free speech so trying to limit dissent goes against ideology, but makes it easy for opponents to paint them with a negative brush.

My earlier take:

The "mean" CPC MP represents a constituency in a western province, and/or outside a major city. The party imagines itself as a big-tent encompassing everyone from the religious right to pro-business conservatives.

The CPC has a national floor of about 30%, and its way to power requires winning 40% of the popular vote and breaking through the suburbs of both the GTA and Metro Vancouver.

About 10-15% of the Canadian population can be considered social conservative, mostly Christian. This small minority becomes influential among the party base, and the last two leadership elections saw the "establishment" candidate defeated by a candidate who won the support of social conservatives on subsequent ballots. Conservative leaders naturally come with the dilemma of having to please social conservatives to win the leadership, while appealing to suburban, socially moderate voters to win power.

Harper did it, thanks in large part to Liberal disarray. He was also very effective at controlling the wingnuts in the party.

Scheer failed. He actually Hillary'd/Gore'd, as he ran up the score in the prairie provinces while narrowly losing dozens of suburban seats.

It's still early for O'Toole, but he hasn't been good at controlling his Fox News-watching wingnuts.

We got a rare glimpse into Tory MP's social ideas, with the recent vote on liberalizing our assisted suicide laws further. 103 Tories voted against the bill, while 16 voted for it. The 16 were the majority of the Quebec caucus plus a smattering of Anglos. One Liberal also voted against the bill; Marcus Powlowski of Thunder Bay.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Cant the Tories form a coalition with the CAQ where they withdraw from running in Quebec and let the CAQ take seats in the federal parliment

[KaiserDave]

Cant the Tories form a coalition with the CAQ where they withdraw from running in Quebec and let the CAQ take seats in the federal parliment

CAQ isn't a federal party.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Cant the Tories form a coalition with the CAQ where they withdraw from running in Quebec and let the CAQ take seats in the federal parliment

CAQ isn't a federal party.

Cant they run candidates for federal office, because I thought they just chose not to

[KaiserDave]

Cant the Tories form a coalition with the CAQ where they withdraw from running in Quebec and let the CAQ take seats in the federal parliment

CAQ isn't a federal party.

Cant they run candidates for federal office, because I thought they just chose not to

Why would they? It would just be Bloc 2.0. Bloc does just what CAQ would do if it sought federal seats.

If CAQ did run for federal seats in Quebec, it would just split the vote in places like Montreal and give Liberals more seats.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Cant the Tories form a coalition with the CAQ where they withdraw from running in Quebec and let the CAQ take seats in the federal parliment

CAQ isn't a federal party.

Cant they run candidates for federal office, because I thought they just chose not to

Why would they? It would just be Bloc 2.0. Bloc does just what CAQ would do if it sought federal seats.

If CAQ did run for federal seats in Quebec, it would just split the vote in places like Montreal and give Liberals more seats.

I thought they were much to the right of Bloc though.


My overall point though is for Conservatives to do better in Quebec why not run some sort of Quebec style conservative party(if there isnt then create one) to get some seats in Quebec which then later would form a coalition with the Canadian conservative party

[KaiserDave]

Cant the Tories form a coalition with the CAQ where they withdraw from running in Quebec and let the CAQ take seats in the federal parliment

CAQ isn't a federal party.

Cant they run candidates for federal office, because I thought they just chose not to

Why would they? It would just be Bloc 2.0. Bloc does just what CAQ would do if it sought federal seats.

If CAQ did run for federal seats in Quebec, it would just split the vote in places like Montreal and give Liberals more seats.

I thought they were much to the right of Bloc though.


My overall point though is for Conservatives to do better in Quebec why not run some sort of Quebec style conservative party(if there isnt then create one) to get some seats in Quebec which then later would form a coalition with the Canadian conservative party

Eh. Sure they're economically to the right of Bloc but their economic positions are fairly similar to the Quebec Liberals. In any case they'd vote similarly in Parliament as Bloc to just rake cash back to Quebec and vote for socially conservative proposals.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_of_Quebec

There's the PCQ, but I'm not sure if they're connected to the federal party or not. In any case their electoral record is abysmal. Conservatives just aren't going to do well in Quebec without alienating western voters.

[2952-0-0]

My overall point though is for Conservatives to do better in Quebec why not run some sort of Quebec style conservative party(if there isnt then create one) to get some seats in Quebec which then later would form a coalition with the Canadian conservative party

The Bloc has pivoted from a hard nationalist party into a catch-all Quebec regionalist party, and last year rode the coattails of Legeault's popularity to regain its foothold.

[mileslunn]

Actually suggestion on CAQ has some logic.  Australia and Germany do this with their conservatives.  In Australia, Liberals only run in urban and suburban areas while National only in rural areas.  Same in Germany with CDU everywhere except Bavaria while CSU in Bavaria only and it seems to work.  But with Canadians not used to this, may be a challenge.

[RogueBeaver]

Besides what KaiserDave said, this has been tried before: Henri Bourassa's nationalists were basically a caucus within a caucus before WWI, that unholy alliance imploded and Borden would've been a 1-termer without WWI. Duplessis thought about a grouping of anti-conscription Grits and indie nationalists like Maxime Raymond and Arthur Cardin in 1944, after they nearly cost him a second term provincially and Cardin became terminally ill in early 1945 that door shut. In the late 90s Harper and Flanagan proposed federal conservatives spawn 3 sister parties under a new electoral system. Then there's the fact that neither CAQ nor CPC wants anything like that... Legault has said several times he and his ministers will not endorse any federal party.

[King of Kensington]

Cultural conservatism without the social conservatism:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/erin-otoole-culture-war-pandemic-statues-immigration-1.5826976

[Horus]

So sort of a friendlier, more intelligent Trumpism with some almost Berniecratic elements? If the GOP followed this route they could perhaps make me and many others swing voters. They never will though.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Also, what exactly would the CAQ get out of such an arrangement? Not only is the Tory brand mud in Quebec still, but the CAQ does not even like the Tories very much, so it's a lose-lose situation for them.

[mileslunn]

Agreed on CAQ and also Quebecers tend to outside Anglos in Montreal have very shallow loyalties to federal parties and can change on a dime's notice thus Legault saying party will stay neutral is probably a smart move long term.  Doesn't get dragged down by any federal leader becoming unpopular.

[2952-0-0]

So sort of a friendlier, more intelligent Trumpism with some almost Berniecratic elements? If the GOP followed this route they could perhaps make me and many others swing voters. They never will though.

There's another factor here, though.

The party is unable - or unwilling - to control its wingnuts. Just today, Pierre Polievre tweeted that a video where Chrystia Freeland called on wealthier Canadians whose accounts have fattened to spend more to stimulate the economy, was a communist plot. And this was just a few days after Derek Sloan, who previously dabbled in WHO/UN/CCP conspiracy theories, circulated a petition that peddled anti-vaxxer conspiracy theories. Wingnuts arguably cost the CPC the 2004 and 2019 elections.

If O'Toole is unable or unwilling to control his party's wingnuts the way Harper did, then he will become another also-ran.

[King of Kensington]

Poilievre is the finance critic and Michelle Rempel (aka the MP for Oklahoma) is the health critic.