Best Source of Data for Citizen Voting Age Population by State and Year?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 01:41:28 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Best Source of Data for Citizen Voting Age Population by State and Year?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Best Source of Data for Citizen Voting Age Population by State and Year?  (Read 278 times)
Sorenroy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,697
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -5.91

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 20, 2020, 08:27:58 PM »

I've been trying to work on a project going back as far as possible to see how different candidates have performed when it comes to their percentage of the citizen voting age population (CVAP). However, in trying to find this data, I have found different official records with widely different numbers depending on the source. For example, take South Carolina in the 2000 election.

The Page Historical Reported Voting Rates and the PDF file Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2000 both put the CVAP turnout in SC at 60% and around 60% nationwide.

The page Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2000, which gives actual estimated numbers, puts the CVAP turnout in SC at 48% and 57% nationwide.

The page Voting-Age Population and Voting-Age Citizens: 2000, which seems unique to 2000 and gives actual estimated numbers, puts the CVAP turnout in SC at 47% and 55% nationwide.

So there are three different sources, all generated by the Census Bureau, all giving different numbers. I used 2000 and South Carolina as an example, but these differences exist across every state and every election because of the repeated sources of different numbers.

Does anyone know what I should be using as a source since all of these are coming from the Census but giving different numbers?
Logged
jimrtex
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,828
Marshall Islands


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2020, 12:18:01 PM »

I've been trying to work on a project going back as far as possible to see how different candidates have performed when it comes to their percentage of the citizen voting age population (CVAP). However, in trying to find this data, I have found different official records with widely different numbers depending on the source. For example, take South Carolina in the 2000 election.


The page Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2000, which gives actual estimated numbers, puts the CVAP turnout in SC at 48% and 57% nationwide.
In Table 4C, it shows SC at 59.5% of CVAP, doesn't it?

The page Voting-Age Population and Voting-Age Citizens: 2000, which seems unique to 2000 and gives actual estimated numbers, puts the CVAP turnout in SC at 47% and 55% nationwide.
This only has population estimates, not turnout.

So there are three different sources, all generated by the Census Bureau, all giving different numbers. I used 2000 and South Carolina as an example, but these differences exist across every state and every election because of the repeated sources of different numbers.

Does anyone know what I should be using as a source since all of these are coming from the Census but giving different numbers?
Maybe you have seen a difference but linked to different documents? Try following the links and check what you see?

Anyhow one possibility is that most Census voting estimates are based on the Current Population Survey (CPS) which is ordinarily used for labor statistics. They survey a household each month for six months, and then skip six months and do one final survey. They are trying to determine how many people are being hired or fired each month. If they did a different sample each month they would get enough random statistical error that would overwhelm any changes (which might be measured in 0.1 of a percent).

But in the December survey following an election, they ask a question about voting on the assumption that people can remember whether they voted or not.

Traditionally these show more people voted than are recorded as voting. People aren't willing to admit they did not vote. They also ask if you didn't vote, why not. If people met two chicks at a bar and never made it to the polling place, they might say "I voted" or "the police turned the fire hoses on me" or "my dog ate my voter registration."

The CPS also only does the civilian population.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.028 seconds with 11 queries.