2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Biden's numbers weren't anything spectacular in the Q poll. Perhaps a lot of people aren't fans of what happened on 1/6 and there isn't a huge Biden 2020/R congress 2022 vote ahead.

Increasing polarization is going to help Democrats if Biden stays moderately popular. On election day 2018 Trump was at -9 in approval. Democrats won the NPV by 8.6%.

This could all be a honeymoon period, but increasing polarization could mean they are over.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1416029077710979090?s=19

Florida being moved to Lean R for absolutely no reason is hilarious..

It's closer to safe than lean.

Cook is right about AZ and GA. Democrats need to stop the dooming about those races.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

These are not R vs. D but Biden approval numbers, but given how rarely we get any CD polling, I thought I’d post them here and not in the Biden Approval thread (feel free to move).

This is Fabrizio Ward (R) for the National Taxpayers Union:

Biden Approve/Disapprove:
 
AZ-1 (O'Halleran) – 39/60
PA-8 (Cartwright) – 40/57
PA-17 (Lamb) – 38/59
KS-3 (Davids) – 43/57

2020 results in those districts:

AZ-1: Biden 50-48
PA-8: Trump 52-47
PA-17: Biden 51-48
KS-3: Biden 54-44

https://www.ntu.org/publications/detail/ntu-poll-taxpayers-oppose-35-trillion-reconciliation-plan-energy-tax-hike-provisions

I can buy some of these, but really struggle to buy Biden-14 in KS-03 or Biden-21 in PA-17, PA-08 especially is a place where I'd expect Biden to become quite unpopular once he actually starts doing stuff in office, Cartwright is probably doomed, but it's not like we didn't know this anyways.

Normally I'd be dismissive of the Biden disapprove/D vote being anything notable but the state leg. specials suggest there is a little bit of this at the moment.

I mean, these people exist. I should know; I'm one of them. I cannot stand Joe Biden, he's not using his bully pulpit nearly enough, but I'm still going to vote blue in '22.

Last night's Cali results also suggest these doomsayer numbers are not true. You can't draw conclusions but Dems are clearly still in the game for 2022 in House.

College educated whites trending Democratic is going to save the Democrats in 2021 and 2022. They have high rates of turnout compared to the WWC. Republicans had the edge in midterms because college educated whites voted Republican.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

We’re basically at the point where even a series of Republican recruitment failures, flawed Republican campaigns, and very aggressive Democratic redistricting decisions/gerrymanders would result in a 54R-46D Senate as well as a healthy GOP majority in the House. This one increasingly looks like it’s set in stone.

At this point it seems trifectas only last two years and the party in power is punished for winning the presidency. This is not sustainable going forward.

It’s been sustainable for decades. It wouldn’t be a major problem if the two-year window of governance witnessed good/impactful governance.

In the Clinton and Obama trifecta's you had lots of conservative and moderate Southern Democrats  stopping any big progressive legislation. Those ex Democratic areas are now almost entirely Republican, which also makes the ability to do anything with narrow majorities impossible.