Anyone else look at the crosstabs for the Qpac poll? They have indies as a statistical tie. That alone points more in the direction of D+4 (most public data like Pew Research has the national party edge as roughly D+3-5) than D+10. Surely we've all learned the dangers of labeling polls as skewed but I have a very hard time believing Ds have a double-digit lead when the poll only has them at 40% with indies.
Looking at crosstabs isn't necessarily reliable. For instance, I remember an IA-SEN 2020 poll that had a Reynolds +3 sample, and had Greenfield +3. The 2018 GOV numbers were a representative sample, but the 2020 SEN results were way off, as we all know.
That being said, I agree that Democrats almost certainly aren't up by 10 points.
At the same time YouGov's ideology crosstabs nailed the NPV for 2016/2018/2020. Do agree though, looking at crosstabs or participating in unskewing polls opens its own can of worms. There are various quirks to each pollster to keep in mind,
For example, as Iowa is 90+% white and 55+% WWC, the method of "assign all undecideds to R" serves pretty well in statewide races.
In a close Election the PVI would be 2.5, it's a RV not LV sample in QU poll but Rs haven't won PVI since 2014 as long as we are in a Pandemic
Didn't Rs win the house NPV in 2016?
