2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The oversampling Rs is fine, giving Dems a scare. The tie is also in battlegrounds even with this oversample. Hate these multiple state/combined district polls, such a weird sample.

A battleground phone poll of 1,000 registered voters, with an oversample of 500 Republicans was
conducted by phone April 27-May 3, 2021 from a voter-file sample. 67% of respondents were reached
on cell phones in order to accurately reflect the American electorate. The margin of error is +/- 3.5
percentage points.

4 South/Sunbelt States = AZ (+5), FL (+2), GA (+5), NV (+1)
7 Blue Wall States = MI (+1), ME (+3), MN (+1), NH (-), OH (+3), PA (-), WI (-)
13 Additional Frontline Congressional Districts:
• CA-39(+3), CA-45 (+3), CA-48 (+1), CA-49 (+4)
• NJ-03 (+3), NJ-05 (+1), NJ-07(+1), NJ-11 (-)
• TX-22 (+4), TX-24 (+2), TX-32 (+1)
• VA-02 (+1), VA-07 (+3)

Oversampling of Republicans (or any other group) doesn't mean [at all] that the poll's skewed. They don't give more weight to R. They just wanted to decrease MOE *inside* the group to study Republicans' attitudes towards Trump etc.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1429457202012635139

Some of these races included multiple Democratic and/or Republican candidates running at the same time in what is known as a jungle election. If we focus only on non-jungle races in data compiled by Ethan Chen, Republicans are outperforming the 2020 presidential baseline by 3 points.

Either way you look at it, there has been a slight Republican overperformance compared to where things stood last year.

Such a change is not too large. Remember, too, that Trump lost nationally by 4 points, so a 4-point swing toward Republicans suggests a neutral national environment.

But this would likely be enough for Republicans to take back the US House of Representatives, especially considering that they are in a good position for redistricting.
What really jumps out, though, is the trend.

When you look at the first 17 special elections this year (through early April), the Republican overperformance over Trump was just a point. Examining the last 17 special elections, the overperformance has been 7 points. When you splice the data even further, Republicans have been outperforming the 2020 baseline by double-digits since the beginning of July.

Whether such a shift sustains itself can't be known at this point. Things may shift back to Democrats.

Importantly, the shift in favor of Republicans in special election results comes as other indicators suggest that the environment is getting better for the GOP.

The Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot is down to an average 2 points over the last month, after being 4 points for much of the year.

Biden's job approval rating has been tilting downward. His net approval (approval - disapproval) rating is only about +3 points at this point. It had almost always been +10 points or above before July.

Combined, however, these numbers tell a clear story of Republicans picking up ground.

The story may become even clearer a month from now in the California recall gubernatorial election. You might think of it as the biggest non-regularly scheduled election of the year. Biden won California by nearly 30 points.

A Democratic governor in California shouldn't be recalled or be close to being recalled, if Democrats are doing well nationally. The polling suggests that the race could, in fact, be close.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1437046822325919746

CNN shows
45% D
44% R

The poll was conducted August 3-September 7, 2021

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-best-tool-for-predicting-midterm-elections-doesnt-show-a-republican-wave-but-history-is-on-the-gops-side/
Our Best Tool For Predicting Midterm Elections Doesn’t Show A Republican Wave — But History Is On The GOP’s Side


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1455870033867988998

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1457438451436081154

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Russian bear love to post polls favoring Rs a yr before the Election anyways these polls don't matter until Aug 22 anyways

Yes, I do! But this time I posted Nate Cohn's take, that this results are consistent with VA/NJ outcomes.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

New CNN poll (Nov 1-4) has GCB at D+5

Democrats 49%
Republicans 44%

I'm sure it will get the same amount of coverage as the Suffolk poll though!

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/08/politics/cnn-poll-biden-job-approval/index.html

Nov 2020
CNN D +12, so there is a 7 point change since 2020 per CNN.
Suffolk D+10. so there is a 16 point change since 2020 per Suffolk.

If you average it, (16+7)/2 = 11.5 swing since Nov 2020 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/eyokley/status/1458461034847653891

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

JFC. If it's true, it's not Red Wave anymore. It's Red Tsunami.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

JFC. If it's true, it's not Red Wave anymore. It's Red Tsunami.

NOT

No it's not Rs are trailing in 304 Senate seats D's are gonna win Man of Govs and keep the Sen and lose Seats on Cal, NY and IL for Redistricting stop trying to project a R Landsoa yr before an Election Biden and Trump are statistically tied just like they were deadlocked in 2020

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

R+8 is among Adults, among RV, it's just R+5 per Quinnipiac:

Democrats   41%
Republicans 46%

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Rs aren't gonna beat Bob Casey Jr and MT Treasurer talking about Rs retaining PA in 22 and AZ Kelly losing is laughable because those seatsare expected to go D


Toomey would have lost in 2016 if Sestak not McGonty were nominated he barely beat her but 2 percent

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1461376150651998217

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1462475479018004483

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1468986740618797070

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/10/public-view-on-bidens-handling-of-covid-and-the-economy-takes-another-hit-cnbc-survey-shows.html

(B+)-rated CNBC/Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies


R 44 (+3 since October)
D 34 (-9)

Outlier, but LOL.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1470420377750982661
Harry Enten states the obvious (not for many Dems, though), but still nice to have them all in a single article.

• Generic Congressional Ballot
• Presidential Approval
• Special Elections and Virginia
• House Retirements

All the signs (right now) point towards red wave.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1468289128529899527?s=20

As much as the generic ballot has gotten better for Republicans in the last few months, these numbers are still underestimating R's. Like it's pretty telling that 57% disapprove in this poll yet only 44% are going Republican. There is a point in the electorate where no matter how low Biden's approval goes a certain percentage will just vote Democratic anyway, however, that kind of separation (44-57, vs the 41-41) is telling me that those are people who don't necessarily like R's but they will vote for them and they're hesitant to say so. We didn't see this kind of thing in 2017, it was blue wave territory immediately.

WSJ: Portrait of hte undecided voters.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/voters-think-biden-making-inflation-worse

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1472578830351179777
 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Has anyone else noticed that the Democrats have been doing pretty well in generic ballot polling recently? On January 5, 2018, the Dems were up 11 points on the RCP aggregate. The GOP is up by 1.6 right now. 538 had the Democrats up 10, but the Republicans are up by only 0.5 at the moment. The midterms are obviously still going to swing R, but it's probably not going to be some 2010 or 2014 redux like some doomers on here are heralding.

That could be a good point but there is a possibility that republicans will overperform their current polling or gain in their polling lead as the year goes on

This. No Democratic President has had an approval rating lower than Biden's. 2022 will be a red wave of Biblical proportions.

Amen!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

(C)-rated CNN
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/11/politics/cnn-poll-economy-education-2022/index.html
CNN Poll: Economy and education could shape how Americans vote in 2022

GOP +1

They had Dems +5 in Nov, Dems +1 in Sep 2021.
They had Dems +11 right before 2020 election, so a double digits swing since 2020.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

(A-) rated Trafalgar Group*

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/COSA-National-Issues-Full-Report-0209.pdf
1,073   LV   

R 54%
D 42%

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1495112270707404806



It's not yet set in stone, but I think, that a lot of Dems still don't grasp how big red wave might [likely?] become. Imo most people still think it will be R+2 at *worst*.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

(A-)-rated Emerson College
February 19-20

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/february-2022-national-poll-inflation-tops-nation-s-concerns-perception-of-covid-s-public-health-threat-drops

1138 RV:
R 50(+1 compared to Nov)
D 41 (-1)

The majority (73%) of registered voters report being very motivated to vote in the 2022 midterm elections. Republican voters express higher levels of motivation to vote than Democrats: 79% say they are very motivated to vote compared to 65% of Democratic voters. Younger voters are less motivated to vote: 57% of voters between the ages 18-29 say they are very motivated to vote, compared to 84% of voters over 50 who say they are very motivated to vote.