2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Frenchrepublican]

https://clerk.house.gov/evs/2021/roll053.xml

LOL. Golden voted in favor of an amendment which is giving the right to vote to inmates.

A very dumb move considering how his district is leaning.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://clerk.house.gov/evs/2021/roll053.xml

LOL. Golden voted in favor of an amendment which is giving the right to vote to inmates.

A very dumb move considering how his district is leaning.

Maine actually has a system like this where it is legal for incarcerated people to vote from prison, so his vote makes a lot of sense in that regard.

Also, not sure what your post has to do with recruitment.

I guess this is an issue which could be weaponized by the GOP against him during the next election cycle.

[Frenchrepublican]

OH-16 poll for the Club of Growth : Gonzalez's popularity at -11 among R primary voters / trails Miller

https://www.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/CfG_OH-16_Memo_210319.pdf

Uninformed ballot : Gonzalez = 30% / Miller = 39%

When voters are reminded that Gonzalez voted to impeach Trump : Gonzalez = 17% / Miller = 69%

[Frenchrepublican]

https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/march-omnibus-political/

Generic Ballot (National)
Dem 46%
Rep 42%
3/15-3/21 by Echelon Insights
1008 RV

[Frenchrepublican]

TX-15 getting some attention for the first time (probably) ever :
https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1375057997274226698?s=20

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/alaynatreene/status/1375047617999175680?s=20

[Frenchrepublican]

The House GOP's roadmap :

https://www.axios.com/house-gop-memo-trump-embrace-only-option-for-comeback-4cc95492-0c86-4fe5-b592-84ff12b7e5d0.html?utm_campaign=organic&utm_medium=socialshare&utm_source=twitter

On a flight Tuesday from Indianapolis to Fort Wayne, Ind., two leaders in the House Republican conference discussed a memo that argues that their party's future demands they "embrace our new coalition" because "President Trump's gift didn’t come with a receipt."

Why it matters: The document, titled "Cementing GOP as the Working Class Party," leaves no doubt that Republicans — at least in the House of Representatives — will be doubling down on Donald Trump for the foreseeable future.


(please minimize quoted text from articles for copyright reasons --Mod.)

[Frenchrepublican]

The House GOP's roadmap :

https://www.axios.com/house-gop-memo-trump-embrace-only-option-for-comeback-4cc95492-0c86-4fe5-b592-84ff12b7e5d0.html

Ah yes, embracing a complete failure who lost the House, the presidency, & then the Senate for the GOP is their only option for a comeback. It almost makes too much sense!!

I don't think you can really blame Trump for losing the Senate, I mean the main reason why Republicans don't have a majority in the Senate is because they totally screwed up 2018 MT/OH/WV Sen races, Trump was popular in these three states and you can't blame him if the geniuses at the NRSC decided not to target them a bit more seriously.

[Frenchrepublican]

I didn't realize CO was doing new lines this year. So what will Boebert's district likely look like in 2022?

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1377604181733875727

She's a grifter. Boebert isn't losing.

Boebert is beatable with the right candidate and a little luck, but Donovan is very much the wrong type of Democrat to flip this district.

Boebert is probably not beatable under the current lines, if the district becomes more competitive, yeah she would be vulnerable, but CO has a non partisan commission so it's a bit unlikely her district will become much more left leaning

[Frenchrepublican]

The House GOP's roadmap :

https://www.axios.com/house-gop-memo-trump-embrace-only-option-for-comeback-4cc95492-0c86-4fe5-b592-84ff12b7e5d0.html

Ah yes, embracing a complete failure who lost the House, the presidency, & then the Senate for the GOP is their only option for a comeback. It almost makes too much sense!!

I don't think you can really blame Trump for losing the Senate, I mean the main reason why Republicans don't have a majority in the Senate is because they totally screwed up 2018 MT/OH/WV Sen races, Trump was popular in these three states and you can't blame him if the geniuses at the NRSC decided not to target them a bit more seriously.

I'd vigorously refute the notion that the main reason why Republicans don't have the Senate majority right now is because of that so much as it's immediately moreso due to the death from a thousand cuts that was Trump spending the 2 months between Nov. 7th & Jan. 5th actively delegitimizing elections in general - & Georgian elections in particular - & saying that his voters' votes didn't matter since it was rigged against them anyway: as it turns out, enough of his voters listened.

Perdue and Loeffler received around 90% of the votes that Trump got two months earlier, besides both of them received more votes than Kemp got in 2018, so I don't think that the problem was a lack of enthusiasm among GOP voters, if you had told Perdue in November that he would get 2.2M votes in January he probably would have been very confident about the race.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/bresreports/status/1379029880252289028?s=20

[Frenchrepublican]

Am I the only one who thinks it’s weird that people are announcing for congressional races in states that don’t even have the districts they’d be running in yet?

I guess it allow you to raise funds

[Frenchrepublican]

A very useful reading about Senate elections :

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1379426962310041600?s=20

[Frenchrepublican]

The DCCC released its offensive target list for 2022 yesterday:

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1379424480259362818

It's obviously a much more limited list of seats (mostly just close losses in 2020), though there are a few districts that seem like possible redistricting targets - as well as ignoring several seats where redistricting will take once competitive seats off the table.

The four California seats and TX-24 are by far the five easiest targets on the list (not counting AZ-02, which shouldn't really be on there to begin with). I have an extremely hard time seeing any of the others flipping in a neutral or GOP-favorable midterm, aside from NY redistricting shaking things up there.

I don't really see the point of targeting the two districts in Missouri/Indiana.

[Frenchrepublican]

PEM MANAGEMENT GENERIC BALLOT POLL (for a pro Bolton PAC) :

Republicans : 43%
Democrats : 40%

https://boltonsuperpac.com/pdfs/crostabs_04202021.pdf

[Frenchrepublican]

PEM MANAGEMENT GENERIC BALLOT POLL (for a pro Bolton PAC) :

Republicans : 43%
Democrats : 40%

https://boltonsuperpac.com/pdfs/crostabs_04202021.pdf

This sounds like it would be a Republican-leaning poll. That said, not good, especially if polling underestimates the GOP yet again.

The past four years of elections have given us ample amount of evidence that really only happens when Trump is actually on the ballot. There is no shy Republican vote.

Besides, the poll sample is only D +0.7

Were you alive during the 2014 midterms ? That year Republicans overperformed the generic ballot by 3 points and polls generally overestimated democratic candidates in most competitive races (Crist up in FL, democrats winning in KS, Hagan ahead of Thom Tillis, the IA-Sen race).

And 2018 was hardly better for the polling industry with big failures in Ohio (Cordray was ahead by 4 points according to the polling average !), Indiana, Missouri but also Florida and Tennessee.

[Frenchrepublican]

PEM MANAGEMENT GENERIC BALLOT POLL (for a pro Bolton PAC) :

Republicans : 43%
Democrats : 40%

https://boltonsuperpac.com/pdfs/crostabs_04202021.pdf

This sounds like it would be a Republican-leaning poll. That said, not good, especially if polling underestimates the GOP yet again.

The past four years of elections have given us ample amount of evidence that really only happens when Trump is actually on the ballot. There is no shy Republican vote.

Besides, the poll sample is only D +0.7

Were you alive during the 2014 midterms ? That year Republicans overperformed the generic ballot by 3 points and polls generally overestimated democratic candidates in most competitive races (Crist up in FL, democrats winning in KS, Hagan ahead of Thom Tillis, the IA-Sen race).

And 2018 was hardly better for the polling industry with big failures in Ohio (Cordray was ahead by 4 points according to the polling average !), Indiana, Missouri but also Florida and Tennessee.

Lol and polls underestimated the Democrats in 2012. My point is that there is no shy Republican vote, and that stands.

And what about 2018? The Democrats did about as well nationwide as the polls suggested. In fact, they even over performed in the House election. Every election is going to have a few races that are off.

Yeah, and it's actually pretty telling that democrats have not overperformed their polling numbers since 2012, an era in which they were far more reliant on white non college voters (= the voters who are the most likely to refuse to answer polls), and considering how both parties' coalitions are evolving it is fairly plausible that polls will overestimate democrats once again next year. Concerning the reason why democrats tend to do better in polls than in the real life, I don't think it has anything to do with '' shy republican voters '' but more with the fact that white liberals are more likely to answers pollsters' calls than other social groups.

[Frenchrepublican]

NBC News Generic Ballot Poll : D+5

D : 47% (-1 vs October 2020)
R : 42% (-1 vs October 2020)

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/20690434-210098-nbc-news-april-poll-4-25-21-release

(By the way they have Biden approval at +8 among RVs and the sample is D+8)

[Frenchrepublican]

No change from 2020. Don't expect much anytime soon either as Biden approvals pretty much reflect last year's numbers, the only group where he's improved by a bit relative to 2020 is Hispanics which bodes well for Dems in NV, AZ.

It seems that Biden is, to the contrary, overperforming relatively more among white voters than among hispanics, for example the last Yougov poll has his approval rate among hispanics at " only " +21 and Quinnipiac gives him even lower numbers among them (+16 only). MC is a exception to this trend as they give him a +41 approval rate among hispanics but Morning Consult is a also much more favourable to Biden than other polls as they routinely give him a +20 approval.

[Frenchrepublican]

The NRCC is adding a ten more districts to their target list:

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1389520186147999744

CA-07, CA-16, CA-36, IL-03, MI-05, NY-04, NY-20, NY-25, NY-26, PA-06

(Obviously, all of these seats are pretty big stretches in their current forms, but it's likely in anticipation of these seats being changed significantly in redistricting.)

Concerning the NYS targets I guess that they are betting on democrats adopting a very agressive gerrymander and that it will result in a massive dummymander in the Upstate (a lot of Biden+5 districts which could be vulnerable in a unfavourable climate).