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Author Topic: 2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 166655 times)
Progressive Pessimist
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Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« on: February 06, 2021, 07:46:43 PM »

School board president Nicholas D'Agostino (R-Wantage) has announced he'll challenge Rep. Josh Gottheimer in NJ-05. He uses a wheelchair and says he's inspired by Madison Cawthorn being elected to Congress last year. Describes himself a "conservative Republican" but is opposed to "prosecuting drug addiction and other 'victimless crimes.'"

Source

Yeah, I’m sure North Jersey is begging for their own Cawthorn.

Him making that comparison to himself, especially in a district that is sure to get more Democratic, is a one-way ticket to losing worse than John McCann.
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Progressive Pessimist
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Posts: 32,562
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Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2021, 07:57:46 PM »

He's making the comparison to Cawthorn because he's a disabled dude in a wheelchair.

I know, but there are plenty of less reprehensible differently-abled people to compare oneself to. That would be like someone with prosthetic legs being inspired by Oscar Pistorius now. Okay, maybe that's a bit more exaggerated but surely voters who are almost guaranteed to despise Republicans like Cawthorn will not see the connection as endearing.
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Progressive Pessimist
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Posts: 32,562
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Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #2 on: May 02, 2021, 06:31:23 PM »

All hail our totally amazing and not at all communist/anti-American overlords. God bless Fox, please don’t hurt me.

Who else is going to defend us from president Biden's diet regulation agenda!?
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Progressive Pessimist
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Posts: 32,562
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Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #3 on: May 17, 2021, 06:01:14 PM »

While history suggests the GOP should be doing well, the flip-side for them is that midterms tend to be more white and more educated...demographics which have been trending Dem in most cases.


Do you trust them in down-ballot races though? 2020 ticket-splitting made me very hesitant to have confidence in them to recognize the GOP as the Trump hive-mind they truly are.
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Progressive Pessimist
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Posts: 32,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2021, 06:30:33 PM »

The 2022 election is the most important one in US history, and we're blowing it. Biden should be ashamed of himself.

I can't say we're blowing it when there is likely nothing we could do in the face of our country's constant deterministic repetition of historical patterns.
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Progressive Pessimist
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Posts: 32,562
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Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #5 on: September 03, 2021, 07:11:00 PM »

The said poll may be flawed, though I wouldn't be that surprised if it's currently around tied. If that was the case or Republicans are ahead, I'm so free to say the public hast lost its collective mind if they actually want the Republican Party just remotely back in power after what happened in last few years from the Tea Party to Trump. This is a party that in large parts openly despises democracy and downplayed or supported an insurrection/coup attempt; it should essentially have no business in governing for the rest of this decade. For four years, they have embraced or ignored corruption, selfenrichment, utter neglance and gross incompetence at the highest levels of government. I can't really comprehend how anyone would want this sh*tshow back?

Don't assume that our national voting population is rational.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 32,562
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Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #6 on: September 22, 2021, 07:00:59 PM »

Initial DSCC target list:

Quote
The DSCC investment initially will focus on Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. More states and funding could be added in later phases.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/democrats-launch-30-million-field-organizing-program-keep-senate-control-n1279758

Iowa is notably not on the list, but I suspect it may be added if Grassley retires.

Drop Ohio and this a fine list, Democrats should not spend a cent in Ohio. If the DSCC spends in Iowa, they are officially the most stupid campaign organization in existence.

They really shouldn't bother in Florida either. Knowing where not to spend is probably even more valuable than figuring out where to spend these days. I'd rather have fewer, but likelier to be won targets, than the party spreading itself too thin.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2021, 05:58:22 PM »

Isn't that an Iowa poll? Iowa is a very Republican state.

It's red, but it's not that red unless it's a massive red wave of Biblical proportions.

I don't expect Democrats to do well in 2022, but you're misunderstanding the partisan environment we're in right now. Saying that Iowa being solidly red means a red wave of Biblical proportions is like saying that Georgia being a tossup in a Biden midterm means Republicans are doomed to lose seats in the House and Senate. The map has changed and Iowa is gone for Democrats outside of very favorable off-year circumstances.

Thank you! I've been saying this since the Selzer poll before election day 2020. Iowa is not the national bellwether it used to be.
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Progressive Pessimist
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Posts: 32,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2021, 05:24:00 PM »

Imagine believing the Democrats are going to do 5 points better than in 2020 in a midterm when the incumbent Democratic president is nearly 10 points underwater. lo freaking l.


Muh January 6th

You joke, and don't mistake me for being optimistic about 2022, but the GOP are not acting very accessible to Americans outside of their tribe. Don't underestimate how much they may be scaring the s*** out of many, especially soft-Democrats who may be disappointed with Biden but can't bear to vote Republican still.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 32,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #9 on: September 14, 2022, 07:07:24 PM »

The NRCC has added 7 candidates to their "On the Radar" program - which appears to be a bunch of reach seats:



LOL Gottheimer? He's going to win by double digits. They're out of their minds.
Maybe not by dd but he will definitely win

He is dominating when it comes to ads on both the internet and television. Meanwhile all I am seeing out of Pallota are yard signs an other signs lazily placed on highways. I expect a nine point victory for Gottheimer, more than in 2020 due to the changes in the district makeup, but still relatively similar.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #10 on: September 19, 2022, 06:15:52 PM »

I disagree that Republicans "always" have an edge on the economy. It's just that Democrats haven't been in power with a stable economy since January 2017. Obama was pretty well-regarded on the economy and then Trump took over that economy which nose-dived in 2020 and has been on a bumpy recovery since. So obviously the GOP is going to have the advantage on that issue now, but there is potential that if inflation finally comes under control and cost-of-living issues get addressed in some ways that Democrats can be received positively on it again. It isn't like crime, foreign policy, or immigration where Republicans always seem to be perceived better. As Ferguson said, those are examples of issues that "belong" to them while Democrats have health care.

Please check this out...


So while the Democrats are GLOATING about the NBC Poll these underlying crosstabs are increasingly bad for them. If this is accurate Democrats are finished certainly in the House.

DeSantis & Abbott looks like were the smart ones here bringing back the Issue of Border/Immigration in their States where Republicans have a decided edge based on those Numbers.

When folks are saying the Cost of Living is more important then Abortion by 22 Points that is a MASSIVE, MASSIVE Red Flag for Democrats particularly on the House Side of things.

Democrats have IMO overplayed their hand with the Abortion Issue.

Do you really think the results of this abortion question support the point you are trying to make?
Do you understand how absolutely huge it is for 37% of voters to be prioritizing abortion over the economy in their vote, compared to historical averages?

If 37% of the electorate is motivated primarily by abortion in November, we're looking at a significant blue wave.

In spite of what I said above, I agree with you here. It can't be assumed that the GOP are going to get all 59% of those voters prioritizing the economy to vote for them, we're too polarized for that; but 37% prioritizing abortion? It's pretty clear how probably 90% or more of those people are going to vote. It explains how the Dobbs decision has leveled the playing field between both parties so much, as evidenced by the special elections.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #11 on: September 20, 2022, 05:20:13 PM »



Not a poll itself, but some insight into nonresponse issues in the 2020 polling and some indication that we are not seeing nearly the same level of that problem this cycle

That is good news, but does this only apply to Siena or are other polling firms finding the same thing?


Democrats being close to that ever-important 50% mark looks very promising here. Let's hope it holds up.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 32,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #12 on: September 23, 2022, 05:27:22 PM »

New Inside Elections rating changes:



I don't know why they had Nevada as tilt D to begin with.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #13 on: September 29, 2022, 05:22:16 PM »

I can already feel this damn election taking a toll on my mental health.

Lovely. Exactly what I needed.

You and me both. It already was before the Dobbs decision actually managed to change things for the better, but I still can't get rid of the nagging dread that we're being misled into being optimistic again.

It especially doesn't help with today's round of polling where things actively look worse in Oregon, Pennsylvania (Senate, not so much the gubernatorial race), and Wisconsin. Which all might be explained by Republican ad blitzes going into very high gear, time shifting further away from the shock and consequences of the Dobbs decision in the summer, gas going up again in some areas, inflation remaining stubborn, and Democratic accomplishments during the summer leaving peoples' memories. I was worried that Democrats would peak too early, as always seems to be the case, and while I can't say this is happening for sure right now (perhaps it's just statistical noise) I am becoming paranoid about it.

Part of me just wants these damn elections to be over, but the other part of me dreads how they end up and would rather not know at all.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #14 on: September 29, 2022, 07:03:03 PM »

I can already feel this damn election taking a toll on my mental health.

Lovely. Exactly what I needed.

You and me both. It already was before the Dobbs decision actually managed to change things for the better, but I still can't get rid of the nagging dread that we're being misled into being optimistic again.

It especially doesn't help with today's round of polling where things actively look worse in Oregon, Pennsylvania (Senate, not so much the gubernatorial race), and Wisconsin. Which all might be explained by Republican ad blitzes going into very high gear, time shifting further away from the shock and consequences of the Dobbs decision in the summer, gas going up again in some areas, inflation remaining stubborn, and Democratic accomplishments during the summer leaving peoples' memories. I was worried that Democrats would peak too early, as always seems to be the case, and while I can't say this is happening for sure right now (perhaps it's just statistical noise) I am becoming paranoid about it.

Part of me just wants these damn elections to be over, but the other part of me dreads how they end up and would rather not know at all.

And yet this week we also got Hassan +9, Warnock +5, Kelly +6, Fetterman +7/10, and two tied NC-SEN polls. If people want to create a narrative about WI, where things actually seem to have shifted a bit, that's fine, but elsewhere there doesn't seem to be anything really going on.

Also, the idea that 2 months after Dobbs, people were still angry and voted, but 4 months - closer to the actual election - they're just like "meh" is just kind of ridiculous.

I know I'm probably being unreasonable but certain things are instigating that internal sense of dread I always have but had been quieted somewhat during the late summer. I hope you end up right about everything this year. I really do.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #15 on: September 29, 2022, 07:35:05 PM »

I can already feel this damn election taking a toll on my mental health.

Lovely. Exactly what I needed.

You and me both. It already was before the Dobbs decision actually managed to change things for the better, but I still can't get rid of the nagging dread that we're being misled into being optimistic again.

It especially doesn't help with today's round of polling where things actively look worse in Oregon, Pennsylvania (Senate, not so much the gubernatorial race), and Wisconsin. Which all might be explained by Republican ad blitzes going into very high gear, time shifting further away from the shock and consequences of the Dobbs decision in the summer, gas going up again in some areas, inflation remaining stubborn, and Democratic accomplishments during the summer leaving peoples' memories. I was worried that Democrats would peak too early, as always seems to be the case, and while I can't say this is happening for sure right now (perhaps it's just statistical noise) I am becoming paranoid about it.

Part of me just wants these damn elections to be over, but the other part of me dreads how they end up and would rather not know at all.

And yet this week we also got Hassan +9, Warnock +5, Kelly +6, Fetterman +7/10, and two tied NC-SEN polls. If people want to create a narrative about WI, where things actually seem to have shifted a bit, that's fine, but elsewhere there doesn't seem to be anything really going on.

Also, the idea that 2 months after Dobbs, people were still angry and voted, but 4 months - closer to the actual election - they're just like "meh" is just kind of ridiculous.

I know I'm probably being unreasonable but certain things are instigating that internal sense of dread I always have but had been quieted somewhat during the late summer. I hope you end up right about everything this year. I really do.

I mean, I get frustrated and doom too. But I'd rather be cautiously optimistic about some things than be pessimistic.

I think of the NY-19 election where close to nobody on this forum thought Pat Ryan would win. He was down in fundraising, down in the polls, everyone thought "oh Molinaro by 5" and then he came and won by nearly 3%. Not every election is like that, but we've seen concrete evidence this year is different, so the closer we get to the election, I'm supposed to believe that those Dem voters are just... going the opposite way in terms of motivation?

Hell, the fact that we're even talking about Dems and Reps being at the *SAME* intention/motivation to vote in most polls in a Biden midterm is crazy.

Sure, but the introduction of hope for this election to be unique as far as midterms go for the incumbent party will feel like a real tease and even more devastating of a disappointment if it is nowhere close to true when the elections are finally settled. I almost would have preferred to have stayed resigned to a Republican wave as I had expected for the majority of the year before the summer.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #16 on: September 29, 2022, 07:38:21 PM »

I can already feel this damn election taking a toll on my mental health.

Lovely. Exactly what I needed.

You and me both. It already was before the Dobbs decision actually managed to change things for the better, but I still can't get rid of the nagging dread that we're being misled into being optimistic again.

It especially doesn't help with today's round of polling where things actively look worse in Oregon, Pennsylvania (Senate, not so much the gubernatorial race), and Wisconsin. Which all might be explained by Republican ad blitzes going into very high gear, time shifting further away from the shock and consequences of the Dobbs decision in the summer, gas going up again in some areas, inflation remaining stubborn, and Democratic accomplishments during the summer leaving peoples' memories. I was worried that Democrats would peak too early, as always seems to be the case, and while I can't say this is happening for sure right now (perhaps it's just statistical noise) I am becoming paranoid about it.

Part of me just wants these damn elections to be over, but the other part of me dreads how they end up and would rather not know at all.

And yet this week we also got Hassan +9, Warnock +5, Kelly +6, Fetterman +7/10, and two tied NC-SEN polls. If people want to create a narrative about WI, where things actually seem to have shifted a bit, that's fine, but elsewhere there doesn't seem to be anything really going on.

Also, the idea that 2 months after Dobbs, people were still angry and voted, but 4 months - closer to the actual election - they're just like "meh" is just kind of ridiculous.

I know I'm probably being unreasonable but certain things are instigating that internal sense of dread I always have but had been quieted somewhat during the late summer. I hope you end up right about everything this year. I really do.

I mean, I get frustrated and doom too. But I'd rather be cautiously optimistic about some things than be pessimistic.

I think of the NY-19 election where close to nobody on this forum thought Pat Ryan would win. He was down in fundraising, down in the polls, everyone thought "oh Molinaro by 5" and then he came and won by nearly 3%. Not every election is like that, but we've seen concrete evidence this year is different, so the closer we get to the election, I'm supposed to believe that those Dem voters are just... going the opposite way in terms of motivation?

Hell, the fact that we're even talking about Dems and Reps being at the *SAME* intention/motivation to vote in most polls in a Biden midterm is crazy.

This is really the thing that frustrates me. I know for a fact that Dems have been overperforming everywhere for literally months now, but the logic that is beaten into us every day here is that *actually* we have to just assume the polls will be as far off as they were in 2020 or even worse, and if we do anything else, even if we still assume a mild Republican overperformance of only +1 or +2, then that means we're being completely unreasonable and are out of touch with *real America* or some s***, because in the secret reality that I can't see, the polling averages are really underestimating Republicans by like 5 points *everywhere* despite any actual evidence of that. And there's only so much of that that my brain can take before I'm just tempted to give in to the dooming even though there is a lot of clear evidence against doing so.

I don't mind people arguing that the polls are going to be catastrophically wrong, but when they do so with supreme confidence and with no real evidence to back it up - while also demanding that we ignore both the special elections and the reporting on partisan nonresponse would seem to be evidence against the polls being off - it just makes me feel like I'm losing my damn mind. Because clearly only a crazy person would believe evidence over gut feeling.

Once again, I cannot relate more to how you feel here.
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Progressive Pessimist
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Posts: 32,562
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Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #17 on: October 02, 2022, 05:28:08 PM »

NBC/Telemundo did an oversample of Latino voters and found D+21 on the GCB, 54-33. 13% undecided.

Similar to the other recent oversample of Latinos that found +25, 53-28

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read/gop-cuts-democrats-lead-latino-voters-new-poll-shows-rcna50189

What was it at this point in 2020?
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Progressive Pessimist
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Posts: 32,562
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Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #18 on: October 03, 2022, 05:30:32 PM »

I always had a feeling that Dark Brandon August wouldn't last on momentum alone. Circumstances haven't exactly changed since then but between Americans' ever-frustrating low attention span and the GOP flooding the airwaves, it seems like that's been enough to negate Democratic hopes for November.

Granted, two things in Democrats' favor still seem to not be going away: 1. Republicans still dealing with bad recruits and 2. Democrats being more inclined to turn out than they probably would have pre-Dobbs. With that, I don't think the GOP is going to return to their R+5 or 6 generic ballot average of the Spring. But Democrats are going to need something to claw back to the comfortable position we looked to be in back in August. If there is an October surprise I would hope for one that benefits us. I don't know what it could be, but I may be wasting my time even considering that possibility since it seems to be a constant that Democrats peak too early in elections.
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Progressive Pessimist
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Posts: 32,562
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Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #19 on: October 03, 2022, 05:38:48 PM »

I always had a feeling that Dark Brandon August wouldn't last on momentum alone. Circumstances haven't exactly changed since then but between Americans' ever-frustrating low attention span and the GOP flooding the airwaves, it seems like that's been enough to negate Democratic hopes for November.

Granted, two things in Democrats' favor still seem to not be going away: 1. Republicans still dealing with bad recruits and 2. Democrats being more inclined to turn out than they probably would have pre-Dobbs. With that, I don't think the GOP is going to return to their R+5 or 6 generic ballot average of the Spring. But Democrats are going to need something to claw back to the comfortable position we looked to be in back in August. If there is an October surprise I would hope for one that benefits us. I don't know what it could be, but I may be wasting my time even considering that possibility since it seems to be a constant that Democrats peak too early in elections.

I don't really think it's about peaking; like you said, most things haven't changed in the last month except for the GOP's massive spending.

They are already $50M+ over their 2020 spending at this point. Not so much about Democrats "peaking" as the GOP it's just going absolutely insane in the ad wars.

The funny thing is though, on September 3rd, the 538 GCB was D+0.9. It's D+1.2 today. So things haven't gotten worse for Dems in the last month technically.

I guess "peaking" is the wrong word, but it always feels like things get increasingly worse shortly before election day in some of the past few cycles. Two that really come to mind are 2016's Comey incident and 2021 had pretty much everything possible go wrong with the BBB bill being held up, gas and inflation concerns beginning, and the pandemic still being relevant.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #20 on: October 04, 2022, 05:21:53 PM »

I have no idea what to make of generic ballot polls anymore. I'm just glad that I already got my October surprise wish that I made in my last post here, and within three days of the month starting. They've done quite a bit to brighten my mood a bit when it comes to this year's elections. Regardless of what the generic ballot suggests, it doesn't negate the evident fact that Walker did the most hypocritical thing you could do as a "pro-life" Republican in what could be an Akin/Mourdock tier election upsetting scandal.

I'm living or dying by the Senate this year.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,562
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Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #21 on: October 05, 2022, 05:57:56 PM »

Where is the evidence behind the TX-34 shift? I guess there's been private polling since we've seen no public polling?

Beto ahead of the ticket would likely be good for Ds as well, at least with enthusiasm. What are the fundraising #s like here?

(also Flores is like Q-anon crazy, too)

I feel like it might be an overreaction to the polls suggesting the Hispanic trends from 2020 may continue. Still, in a Biden+16 district, that probably won't be enough for Flores to be able to win again. Maybe it'll be closer than expected, but she didn't over-perform that much in the special election.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #22 on: October 13, 2022, 06:13:31 PM »

Republicans should be getting nervous that Democrats continue to cling to a generic ballot lead, this keeps them in contention for keeping the majority. Republicans are late for a surge like in 2014, they are cutting it close.
They are fine polls are fundamentally more flawed this year.

How do you know? We have polls and special election results.

It's a fair expectation in America over the past six years, but there isn't necessarily any actual proof for it yet.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,562
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Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #23 on: October 17, 2022, 06:31:33 PM »

I don't know, I'm starting to get that uneasy feeling about those two consecutive generic ballot polls suggesting that things might be turning around in Republicans' favor again. And I say that as someone who has been keeping my expectations relatively low for these elections. It almost hurts more to be given hope and have it snatched away and not matter than the worst case scenario be a constant like how it looked before late July or so.

I think I may just have to hold out for the Senate races or others where the candidates nominated and local factors may matter more and avert any sort of sentiment in the national environment. I mean, in 2018 the GOP netted two Senate seats with a national popular vote for the Democrats that was way higher than what the Republicans will realistically achieve this year. The same could happen for Democrats keeping the Senate, no? I'm not unreasonable in still having that to cling to, right? Or am I deluding myself and already at the bargaining stage of grief?
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 32,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #24 on: October 18, 2022, 05:40:18 PM »
« Edited: October 18, 2022, 06:02:30 PM by Progressive Pessimist »


This is a good start to turning things around.  Dems need to refocus the campaign on abortion.  That's how Ryan won in NY-19, and how they got record turnout in Kansas.  

Quit with the Jan. 6th stuff for now.  Like it or not, swing voters don't perceive a real threat to democracy.  But they do perceive a real threat to abortion rights.

I kind of disagree. Running on abortion rights has done a lot to get Democrats to close the enthusiasm gap, but it seems like every drop has been squeezed out of using it as an issue. Undecideds don't seem to care and they are going to be the ones who determine these elections if both bases turn out in big numbers and cancel each other out. Barring an impossible miracle of young female RV voters showing up out of nowhere that polls didn't reflect turning out and overwhelming literally every other voting demographic, what Democrats need to do now is detail how Republicans would not be much better for the economy. Compare them and their ideas to Liz Truss, note the threat they are to earned benefits and health care, or how they all voted against the Inflation Reduction Act. I don't know. It might be out of desperation but the conversation seems to really need to change. We have three weeks left and Americans only remember that which is recent. So maybe this could have some impact?

But anyway, after yesterday and today too, I think I'm f***ing done. I'm doing what I did last year when Youngkin started gaining the best timed momentum possible and fleeing this forum and political news in general, if I can, like Indiana Jones from a boulder. And if the elections end up as disappointing as I am now expecting them to be, after being lulled into a false sense of hope over the summer, you may not see me back for as long of a time as I left last time. I cannot f***ing stand this country's politics and I want to wipe my mind of ever having an interest in it.
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