This sounds like it would be a Republican-leaning poll. That said, not good, especially if polling underestimates the GOP yet again.
The past four years of elections have given us ample amount of evidence that really only happens when Trump is actually on the ballot. There is no shy Republican vote.
Besides, the poll sample is only D +0.7
Were you alive during the 2014 midterms ? That year Republicans overperformed the generic ballot by 3 points and polls generally overestimated democratic candidates in most competitive races (Crist up in FL, democrats winning in KS, Hagan ahead of Thom Tillis, the IA-Sen race).
And 2018 was hardly better for the polling industry with big failures in Ohio (Cordray was ahead by 4 points according to the polling average !), Indiana, Missouri but also Florida and Tennessee.
Lol and polls underestimated the Democrats in 2012. My point is that there is no shy Republican vote, and that stands.
And what about 2018? The Democrats did about as well nationwide as the polls suggested. In fact, they even over performed in the House election. Every election is going to have a few races that are off.
Yeah, and it's actually pretty telling that democrats have not overperformed their polling numbers since 2012, an era in which they were far more reliant on white non college voters (= the voters who are the most likely to refuse to answer polls), and considering how both parties' coalitions are evolving it is fairly plausible that polls will overestimate democrats once again next year. Concerning the reason why democrats tend to do better in polls than in the real life, I don't think it has anything to do with '' shy republican voters '' but more with the fact that white liberals are more likely to answers pollsters' calls than other social groups.
I wonder what happened from 2012 to 2014 that pushed non-college whites towards the GOP.
