2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[South Dakota Democrat]

Nadler's potential retirement is more evidence, if it were needed, that 2022 will be a bloodbath for the Democrats.

Um, no?

[South Dakota Democrat]

I wouldn't be surprised if midterm penalties for the presidential party increase as polarization does. That's probably why 2022 looks like 2010 on steroids.

This is nonsensical, since polarization would mean the electorate is less swingy.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I wouldn't be surprised if midterm penalties for the presidential party increase as polarization does. That's probably why 2022 looks like 2010 on steroids.

This is nonsensical, since polarization would mean the electorate is less swingy.

Polarization is driven by increased hatred of the party we oppose, not increased love for our own party. I hate the Democratic Party, but I have to vote for it.

Right, but that would presumably work on both sides.

I'm not saying 2022 will be good, I'm just disagreeing with the notion that polarization means it will be worse than 2010.  There are far fewer competitive seats than in 2010.  If it does end up being that bad, it has more to do with low approval ratings of Biden/turnout differentials than polarization.

[South Dakota Democrat]

The west coast results look a bit discordant…especially Mike Levin losing while Salinas wins in OR-06; very weird given what Oregon is looking like atm.

It also does not take into account the apocalyptic rain on Tuesday in SoCal. Not a single soul will dare leave their house or workplace to vote lest they drown in the half inch of precipitation.

The rain is not going to have any effect on any races unless they’re Mike Garcia 2020 close.

But I was told:

Reminds me of the "Rainy Day Women" episode on the O.C.