2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not sure I buy any of that. I don’t think he’s lying but I doubt those things are true and that he has actual knowledge of them. GA sounds like pushing that narrative just to work on turnout. PA sounds like he’s trying to convince the average voter that the neighbor down the street hasn’t turned on Fetterman so you shouldn’t either.

Also, the fact that he seemed so *surprised* by AZ being competitive this year tells me his 'internal' data is about as reliable as the insider reports in my signature

How do we know he wasn't sounding surprised while not actually being surprised? I wasn't sure how much of this was faked and how much of it was genuine, but hearing this makes me think the former more. Of course a state like AZ might be competitive in a midterm following a presidential election result like what the state had in 2020...it's plainly obvious.

[soundchaser]

Caveat on Nevada: turnout is VERY low at the moment, so it wouldn't take much to turn things around, especially if the rurals start picking up steam. But things do look good as of today.

The rurals can only do much for Rs in NV...and AZ.

Depends on the turnout differential. Clark needs to come in with MUCH larger mail-in ballot numbers before I'm totally comfortable.

One thing to remember, you can vote by mail for the next 12 days in NV counting today, early voting ends in 8. If trends hold Dems should dominate those last 4 days.

Thanks - excellent point!

[MT Treasurer]

How do we know he wasn't sounding surprised while not actually being surprised? I wasn't sure how much of this was faked and how much of it was genuine, but hearing this makes me think the former more. Of course a state like AZ might be competitive in a midterm following a presidential election result like what the state had in 2020...it's plainly obvious.

The fact that it apparently wasn’t obvious to him either means (a) he’s lying (and in that case there’s no reason to take any of his assessments of the other races seriously), (b) he genuinely didn’t believe it would be competitive, and that’s because his 'super accurate' internal polling showed the same thing as public polling — an inflated high single-digit/low double-digit Kelly lead but with Kelly's vote share very close to Warnock's (maybe Pollster can teach him to focus on D vote share rather than D margins from now on), or (c) he’s just a very erratic person (and in that case there’s no reason to take any of his assessments of the other races seriously).

There is (and remains) absolutely no sign that GA is clearly more likely to go R than NV/AZ/PA. Warnock isn’t safe by any means, but if Herschel Walker wins a majority of the vote in November, I’m pretty sure that GA will be the least of Schumer's/national Democrats' worries.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How do we know he wasn't sounding surprised while not actually being surprised? I wasn't sure how much of this was faked and how much of it was genuine, but hearing this makes me think the former more. Of course a state like AZ might be competitive in a midterm following a presidential election result like what the state had in 2020...it's plainly obvious.

The fact that it apparently wasn’t obvious to him either means (a) he’s lying (and in that case there’s no reason to take any of his assessments of the other races seriously), (b) he genuinely didn’t believe it would be competitive, and that’s because his 'super accurate' internal polling showed the same thing as public polling — an inflated high single-digit/low double-digit Kelly lead but with Kelly's vote share very close to Warnock's (maybe Pollster can teach him to focus on D vote share rather than D margins from now on), or (c) he’s just a very erratic person (and in that case there’s no reason to take any of his assessments of the other races seriously).

There is (and remains) absolutely no sign that GA is clearly more likely to go R than NV/AZ/PA. Warnock isn’t safe by any means, but if Herschel Walker wins a majority of the vote in November, I’m pretty sure that GA will be the least of Schumer's/national Democrats' worries.

It's possible that he's making reference to the (likely) second round making victory itself harder to obtain in terms of effort, even if the fundamentals of the race are not as hard and the numbers aren't particularly bad in relative terms.
I agree these remarks are hard to read. You may as well decipher the Oracle of Delphi...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How do we know he wasn't sounding surprised while not actually being surprised? I wasn't sure how much of this was faked and how much of it was genuine, but hearing this makes me think the former more. Of course a state like AZ might be competitive in a midterm following a presidential election result like what the state had in 2020...it's plainly obvious.

The fact that it apparently wasn’t obvious to him either means (a) he’s lying (and in that case there’s no reason to take any of his assessments of the other races seriously), (b) he genuinely didn’t believe it would be competitive, and that’s because his 'super accurate' internal polling showed the same thing as public polling — an inflated high single-digit/low double-digit Kelly lead but with Kelly's vote share very close to Warnock's (maybe Pollster can teach him to focus on D vote share rather than D margins from now on), or (c) he’s just a very erratic person (and in that case there’s no reason to take any of his assessments of the other races seriously).

There is (and remains) absolutely no sign that GA is clearly more likely to go R than NV/AZ/PA. Warnock isn’t safe by any means, but if Herschel Walker wins a majority of the vote in November, I’m pretty sure that GA will be the least of Schumer's/national Democrats' worries.

Rs still gotta worry about wI , Barnes is only 1 pt behind we can wind up with a 51/49 D Senate winning PA and winning GA or WI and of course 53 with OH

[Pollster]

I think we might be collectively overreading/overreacting to Schumer here. He probably sees the polling results that SMP and the DSCC get (and the DSCC being a party committee also gets to see the polling from all of the individual campaigns as well) and is making sense of a lot of individual pieces.

At this time of year, all of these campaigns, committees, and main party outside groups (SMP/SLF/CLF/HMP) are doing rolling tracks in their key races and see new data every few days. They're almost always a week or two ahead of public pollsters/prognosticators. What Schumer says in that video could be the public pollsters' consensus next week. It also might not be. Don't overread it.

Fwiw, there is a rumor going around (feels like I've been saying this a lot - people are talking more than usual this year) that the DSCC got a poll back a couple of weeks ago with Masters ahead. I haven't been able to confirm and my own work in AZ does not align with this yet, but if that's what Schumer has seen then that's what he's seen.

[wbrocks67]

Also figure there may have been a sugar high of sorts in GA after the initial Walker allegations (averaging going up to above Warnock +4) and now it's coming back down to earth.

[Devils30]

Also figure there may have been a sugar high of sorts in GA after the initial Walker allegations (averaging going up to above Warnock +4) and now it's coming back down to earth.

Look at the last several polls. It’s literally all the trash ones on the right.

https://twitter.com/vanceulrich/status/1585843044011515905?s=46&t=ZHoLiKYYsgAIRxzKT9NGUg

I also don’t understand why anyone is taking GOP pollsters at their word on CA-27, this one has no business being in a lean R category.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Also figure there may have been a sugar high of sorts in GA after the initial Walker allegations (averaging going up to above Warnock +4) and now it's coming back down to earth.

Look at the last several polls. It’s literally all the trash ones on the right.

https://twitter.com/vanceulrich/status/1585843044011515905?s=46&t=ZHoLiKYYsgAIRxzKT9NGUg

I also don’t understand why anyone is taking GOP pollsters at their word on CA-27, this one has no business being in a lean R category.

This is misinformation

CA-27 2020 at this time: 52% D 25% R
CA-27 now: 46% D 32% R

R +13 shift

CA-47 2020: 45% D 28% R
CA-47 now: 42% D 34% R

R +9 shift

CA-49 2020: 46% D 29% R
CA-49 now: 41% D 36% R

R +12 shift

Southern California is the single biggest GOP over-performance at this time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538's pre-election survey using Ipsos is D+1, 49-48.

[wbrocks67]

Also figure there may have been a sugar high of sorts in GA after the initial Walker allegations (averaging going up to above Warnock +4) and now it's coming back down to earth.

Look at the last several polls. It’s literally all the trash ones on the right.

https://twitter.com/vanceulrich/status/1585843044011515905?s=46&t=ZHoLiKYYsgAIRxzKT9NGUg

I also don’t understand why anyone is taking GOP pollsters at their word on CA-27, this one has no business being in a lean R category.

This is misinformation

CA-27 2020 at this time: 52% D 25% R
CA-27 now: 46% D 32% R

R +13 shift

CA-47 2020: 45% D 28% R
CA-47 now: 42% D 34% R

R +9 shift

CA-49 2020: 46% D 29% R
CA-49 now: 41% D 36% R

R +12 shift

Southern California is the single biggest GOP over-performance at this time.

are these using old lines vs new lines?
also, do you have links for 2020 early vote?

[wbrocks67]

538's pre-election survey using Ipsos is D+1, 49-48.

An Ipsos poll with less than 30% undecided? It's not possible!

[Unelectable Bystander]

Also figure there may have been a sugar high of sorts in GA after the initial Walker allegations (averaging going up to above Warnock +4) and now it's coming back down to earth.

Look at the last several polls. It’s literally all the trash ones on the right.

https://twitter.com/vanceulrich/status/1585843044011515905?s=46&t=ZHoLiKYYsgAIRxzKT9NGUg

I also don’t understand why anyone is taking GOP pollsters at their word on CA-27, this one has no business being in a lean R category.

This is misinformation

CA-27 2020 at this time: 52% D 25% R
CA-27 now: 46% D 32% R

R +13 shift

CA-47 2020: 45% D 28% R
CA-47 now: 42% D 34% R

R +9 shift

CA-49 2020: 46% D 29% R
CA-49 now: 41% D 36% R

R +12 shift

Southern California is the single biggest GOP over-performance at this time.

are these using old lines vs new lines?
also, do you have links for 2020 early vote?

Here is the link for target smart’s graphic. I think it’s new lines because there’s a comparison for every district

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022

[wbrocks67]

These are the latest reports from 10/1-10/19:

GA:
Warnock (D) $12.2M
Walker (R) $5.9M

NV:
Masto (D) $9.1M
Laxalt (R) $2.2M

OH:
Ryan (D) $9.1M
Vance (R) $2.3M

PA:
Fetterman (D) $8.8M
Oz (R) $5.5M - includes $1.5M loan

FL
Demings (D) $7.8M
Rubio (R) $2.4M

WI
Barnes (D) $8.5M
Johnson (R) $2.6M

NC
Beasley (D) $4.9M
Budd (R) $1.5M

AZ
Kelly (D) $6.3M
Masters (R) $2.4M

CO
Bennet (D) $1.2M
O’Dea (R) $754K - may include self-funding

NH
Hassan (D) $2.3M
Bolduc (R) $604K

MO
Valentine (D) $4.3M - likely includes self-funding
Schmitt (R) $525K

UT
Lee (R) $1.25M
McMullin (I) $1.2M

WA
Smiley (R) $3.7M
Murray (D) $880K

IA
Franken (D) $1.04M
Grassley (R) $490K

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FgIOXw5VsAE6AY1?format=png&name=large

[Ferguson97]

It’s pretty crazy that Dems are outfundraising Rs in a Biden midterm

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

50% 52/48 Sen 303 map 25% 53/46/1 OH, 15% 51/49 PA GA or WI 5% 51/50 D, 5% 51/49R Control

Odds on Senate races

[wbrocks67]

the GOP should thank god for the outside spending. That's what's helping to save them at the end of the day. These totals are mostly just horrific for many of them - Laxalt, Vance, Budd, Masters, Bolduc, even Johnson, who is usually a better fundraiser.

[wbrocks67]

D+1 from Tufts. Never heard of them, though.

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1586003478949908480

[GeorgiaModerate]

D+1 from Tufts. Never heard of them, though.

The same professor's students put out a presidential poll in late October 2020 that had Biden+7.  That's the only other one I can find from them.

[wbrocks67]

Rasmussen is back up to R+7 today, so that put a stop to any momentum Ds had on the ballot tracker, lol.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Rasmussen is back up to R+7 today, so that put a stop to any momentum Ds had on the ballot tracker, lol.

Rasmussen is actually a Election Twitter psyop to win their PredictIt bets.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1586035393081638912?t=RMMXjCkCwxplVAVYZVV...

[Dani Rose]

This GCB nonsense is not doing anything to challenge my belief that the lunatic ups and downs in polling this year are literally just the result of an unprecedented gaggle of terrible polling firms.

I just want one reputable company to put out polls. Just one, even one single time before the election. That's it. I don't care what the result is, I just want one set of numbers that aren't kooky-dukes one single time before E-Day.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don't think there's more variance than normal in generic ballot polls.  It's just we perceive more variance because the race is so close.  Check out the generic ballot polls from 2006...they range from D+4 to D+20 just in the last 3 days of the campaign:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2006_generic_congressional_vote-2174.html#polls

[wbrocks67]

Something of note is that in a lot of these R+4/5 polls, they usually have women tied among D/R.