2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[MillennialModerate]

Why are we seeing polls with R +6 and Dems +4 like this is crazy. Can no one poll?

[wbrocks67]

Why are we seeing polls with R +6 and Dems +4 like this is crazy. Can no one poll?

To be fair, the only polls showing R+6 are Trafalgar, Rasmussen, and Harris, which have had dubious results at best.

[Person Man]

Why are we seeing polls with R +6 and Dems +4 like this is crazy. Can no one poll?

Some people are expecting hordes of crazy neckbeards who have never before seen a voting booth before coming in from their mom's basement, digging ditches, or dealing Blackjack to come in like they did in 2016 or 2020. Others think that will happen, but some are expecting hordes of pink haired goth girls fired up by Dobbs, to counter their effect. Relying making random crazy children is potentially now a "both sides" issue.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are we seeing polls with R +6 and Dems +4 like this is crazy. Can no one poll?

To be fair, the only polls showing R+6 are Trafalgar, Rasmussen, and Harris, which have had dubious results at best.

Due to fact the party holding the WH is usually disadvantage in Midterms but we are gonna get 20K student loans Discharge that's gonna boost our ratings, the polls also sample top many married people, O did these same polls in college when I did phone polls but when zi did canvassing ballots it was more single people married people can pay off student loans, not single person

[MillennialModerate]

Why are we seeing polls with R +6 and Dems +4 like this is crazy. Can no one poll?

To be fair, the only polls showing R+6 are Trafalgar, Rasmussen, and Harris, which have had dubious results at best.

Sienna/NYT is R+4 … close enough

[wbrocks67]

Why are we seeing polls with R +6 and Dems +4 like this is crazy. Can no one poll?

To be fair, the only polls showing R+6 are Trafalgar, Rasmussen, and Harris, which have had dubious results at best.

Sienna/NYT is R+4 … close enough

It's actually tied and R+3, which you would see both if the average is D+1

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I'm just going to lay this out in advance now if things do go catastrophically: if Dems lose both the House and the Senate this November, then the entire leadership needs to be purged. Pelosi, Hoyer, Schumer, Biden, Harris, Durbin, all of them. Burn it to the ground and start over, because everything that we think we know about politics is probably wrong anyway, and the option that would have been considered electoral suicide in any other scenario might actually be the only way to save the country. If the public can't recognize the threat the Republicans present because the present Dem leadership is too incompetent to portray it correctly, then we need to find literally anyone else who can get the point across.

[President Johnson]

I'm just going to lay this out in advance now if things do go catastrophically: if Dems lose both the House and the Senate this November, then the entire leadership needs to be purged. Pelosi, Hoyer, Schumer, Biden, Harris, Durbin, all of them. Burn it to the ground and start over, because everything that we think we know about politics is probably wrong anyway, and the option that would have been considered electoral suicide in any other scenario might actually be the only way to save the country. If the public can't recognize the threat the Republicans present because the present Dem leadership is too incompetent to portray it correctly, then we need to find literally anyone else who can get the point across.

Maybe this is unpopular or controversial to say, I would not just blame it on Democratic leadership but on voters themselves. Maybe they deserve it then? You don't need Biden or Schumer to tell you about the danger most Republican candidates running pose. A person who intends to vote should be capable of informing themselves and think about it.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I'm just going to lay this out in advance now if things do go catastrophically: if Dems lose both the House and the Senate this November, then the entire leadership needs to be purged. Pelosi, Hoyer, Schumer, Biden, Harris, Durbin, all of them. Burn it to the ground and start over, because everything that we think we know about politics is probably wrong anyway, and the option that would have been considered electoral suicide in any other scenario might actually be the only way to save the country. If the public can't recognize the threat the Republicans present because the present Dem leadership is too incompetent to portray it correctly, then we need to find literally anyone else who can get the point across.

Maybe this is unpopular or controversial to say, I would not just blame it on Democratic leadership but on voters themselves. Maybe they deserve it then? You don't need Biden or Schumer to tell you about the danger most Republican candidates running pose. A person who intends to vote should be capable of informing themselves and think about it.

Well, yeah, obviously it would be on the voters as well, but we don't have the option to change them.

[Person Man]

I'm just going to lay this out in advance now if things do go catastrophically: if Dems lose both the House and the Senate this November, then the entire leadership needs to be purged. Pelosi, Hoyer, Schumer, Biden, Harris, Durbin, all of them. Burn it to the ground and start over, because everything that we think we know about politics is probably wrong anyway, and the option that would have been considered electoral suicide in any other scenario might actually be the only way to save the country. If the public can't recognize the threat the Republicans present because the present Dem leadership is too incompetent to portray it correctly, then we need to find literally anyone else who can get the point across.

Maybe this is unpopular or controversial to say, I would not just blame it on Democratic leadership but on voters themselves. Maybe they deserve it then? You don't need Biden or Schumer to tell you about the danger most Republican candidates running pose. A person who intends to vote should be capable of informing themselves and think about it.

Well, yeah, obviously it would be on the voters as well, but we don't have the option to change them.

That's going to happen on its own. The best we can do ourselves is to leave the party. 

[wbrocks67]

I'm just going to lay this out in advance now if things do go catastrophically: if Dems lose both the House and the Senate this November, then the entire leadership needs to be purged. Pelosi, Hoyer, Schumer, Biden, Harris, Durbin, all of them. Burn it to the ground and start over, because everything that we think we know about politics is probably wrong anyway, and the option that would have been considered electoral suicide in any other scenario might actually be the only way to save the country. If the public can't recognize the threat the Republicans present because the present Dem leadership is too incompetent to portray it correctly, then we need to find literally anyone else who can get the point across.

Not really sure what anyone else could say or do. Like President Johnson said, if voters don't get it by now, then they just don't care.

[Person Man]

I'm just going to lay this out in advance now if things do go catastrophically: if Dems lose both the House and the Senate this November, then the entire leadership needs to be purged. Pelosi, Hoyer, Schumer, Biden, Harris, Durbin, all of them. Burn it to the ground and start over, because everything that we think we know about politics is probably wrong anyway, and the option that would have been considered electoral suicide in any other scenario might actually be the only way to save the country. If the public can't recognize the threat the Republicans present because the present Dem leadership is too incompetent to portray it correctly, then we need to find literally anyone else who can get the point across.

Not really sure what anyone else could say or do. Like President Johnson said, if voters don't get it by now, then they just don't care.

In practical terms, what do you if someone in public complains about things? Just shrug and say "you voted for this"?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm just going to lay this out in advance now if things do go catastrophically: if Dems lose both the House and the Senate this November, then the entire leadership needs to be purged. Pelosi, Hoyer, Schumer, Biden, Harris, Durbin, all of them. Burn it to the ground and start over, because everything that we think we know about politics is probably wrong anyway, and the option that would have been considered electoral suicide in any other scenario might actually be the only way to save the country. If the public can't recognize the threat the Republicans present because the present Dem leadership is too incompetent to portray it correctly, then we need to find literally anyone else who can get the point across.

That's why we have OH and IA and NC in case Warnock or Barnes loses do you know what the exit polls showed in 2012 when 30%/79 gave Obama low marks on Right Rrack Wrong track 54/40 NATIONAL BELIEVE ECONIMIC UNFAIRNESS FAVORS THE RICH Obama had Similar Approvals as Biden and we won OH, MO and FL Senate races in 2012 Romney was leading Obama 51/45 that yr because Rs had not a majority in the H but a Supermajority 241 H Romney was favored that yr but Biden was running on the ballot with Obama

The PVI that yr even when we lost a Supermajority in the H was close to what it is now 51/47 so to compare the H PVI with the Natl PVInis silly if we win the Senate we can still win the PVI because we did in 2012

[wbrocks67]

I'm just going to lay this out in advance now if things do go catastrophically: if Dems lose both the House and the Senate this November, then the entire leadership needs to be purged. Pelosi, Hoyer, Schumer, Biden, Harris, Durbin, all of them. Burn it to the ground and start over, because everything that we think we know about politics is probably wrong anyway, and the option that would have been considered electoral suicide in any other scenario might actually be the only way to save the country. If the public can't recognize the threat the Republicans present because the present Dem leadership is too incompetent to portray it correctly, then we need to find literally anyone else who can get the point across.

Not really sure what anyone else could say or do. Like President Johnson said, if voters don't get it by now, then they just don't care.

In practical terms, what do you if someone in public complains about things? Just shrug and say "you voted this"?

That's not what I'm saying, but at some point people are responsible for their actions. My point is that it doesn't matter who the messenger is - all of these things that we find important have been reiterated over and over again - and plenty of people have seen them with their own eyes. So it's not like some magic Democratic messenger is going to be able to connect any different with people than the 7 people mentioned in the quoted post.

[Pericles]

This message to Democratic voters is very clear imo, Biden promises Roe codfication WILL happen in January 2023

[Hope For A New Era]

Isn't Harris the pollster that had Biden's approval at unchanging at 60% Approve/40% Disapprove with no undecideds for months in 2021?

Almost seems like they make up their numbers.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Some people think the blue wall is it and we can't win any red states OH, IA, NC, FL and TX are Alabama and they will stay red forevermore and we won KY 2019

It's called wave insurance red states for reason to sure up the blue wall Barnes and Warnock are weak but we have only 14D and there are 20 R up and it's a Prez map too

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

This message to Democratic voters is very clear imo, Biden promises Roe codfication WILL happen in January 2023

This is a good start to turning things around.  Dems need to refocus the campaign on abortion.  That's how Ryan won in NY-19, and how they got record turnout in Kansas. 

Quit with the Jan. 6th stuff for now.  Like it or not, swing voters don't perceive a real threat to democracy.  But they do perceive a real threat to abortion rights.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm just going to lay this out in advance now if things do go catastrophically: if Dems lose both the House and the Senate this November, then the entire leadership needs to be purged. Pelosi, Hoyer, Schumer, Biden, Harris, Durbin, all of them. Burn it to the ground and start over, because everything that we think we know about politics is probably wrong anyway, and the option that would have been considered electoral suicide in any other scenario might actually be the only way to save the country. If the public can't recognize the threat the Republicans present because the present Dem leadership is too incompetent to portray it correctly, then we need to find literally anyone else who can get the point across.

This. So much this. Say what you will about the GOP, but they're smart enough to keep switching up who runs their party. That probably helps them win, or at least makes it seem like they're more in touch with what voters want.

[wbrocks67]

I'm just going to lay this out in advance now if things do go catastrophically: if Dems lose both the House and the Senate this November, then the entire leadership needs to be purged. Pelosi, Hoyer, Schumer, Biden, Harris, Durbin, all of them. Burn it to the ground and start over, because everything that we think we know about politics is probably wrong anyway, and the option that would have been considered electoral suicide in any other scenario might actually be the only way to save the country. If the public can't recognize the threat the Republicans present because the present Dem leadership is too incompetent to portray it correctly, then we need to find literally anyone else who can get the point across.

This. So much this. Say what you will about the GOP, but they're smart enough to keep switching up who runs their party. That probably helps them win, or at least makes it seem like they're more in touch with what voters want.

is this a joke

[SnowLabrador]

I'm just going to lay this out in advance now if things do go catastrophically: if Dems lose both the House and the Senate this November, then the entire leadership needs to be purged. Pelosi, Hoyer, Schumer, Biden, Harris, Durbin, all of them. Burn it to the ground and start over, because everything that we think we know about politics is probably wrong anyway, and the option that would have been considered electoral suicide in any other scenario might actually be the only way to save the country. If the public can't recognize the threat the Republicans present because the present Dem leadership is too incompetent to portray it correctly, then we need to find literally anyone else who can get the point across.

This. So much this. Say what you will about the GOP, but they're smart enough to keep switching up who runs their party. That probably helps them win, or at least makes it seem like they're more in touch with what voters want.

is this a joke

I'm referring to their Congressional leadership, not Trump.

[wbrocks67]

I'm just going to lay this out in advance now if things do go catastrophically: if Dems lose both the House and the Senate this November, then the entire leadership needs to be purged. Pelosi, Hoyer, Schumer, Biden, Harris, Durbin, all of them. Burn it to the ground and start over, because everything that we think we know about politics is probably wrong anyway, and the option that would have been considered electoral suicide in any other scenario might actually be the only way to save the country. If the public can't recognize the threat the Republicans present because the present Dem leadership is too incompetent to portray it correctly, then we need to find literally anyone else who can get the point across.

This. So much this. Say what you will about the GOP, but they're smart enough to keep switching up who runs their party. That probably helps them win, or at least makes it seem like they're more in touch with what voters want.

is this a joke

I'm referring to their Congressional leadership, not Trump.

I'm pretty sure we only have Kevin McCarthy because Paul Ryan retired, and Liz Cheney got kicked out.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This message to Democratic voters is very clear imo, Biden promises Roe codfication WILL happen in January 2023

This is a good start to turning things around.  Dems need to refocus the campaign on abortion.  That's how Ryan won in NY-19, and how they got record turnout in Kansas.  

Quit with the Jan. 6th stuff for now.  Like it or not, swing voters don't perceive a real threat to democracy.  But they do perceive a real threat to abortion rights.

I kind of disagree. Running on abortion rights has done a lot to get Democrats to close the enthusiasm gap, but it seems like every drop has been squeezed out of using it as an issue. Undecideds don't seem to care and they are going to be the ones who determine these elections if both bases turn out in big numbers and cancel each other out. Barring an impossible miracle of young female RV voters showing up out of nowhere that polls didn't reflect turning out and overwhelming literally every other voting demographic, what Democrats need to do now is detail how Republicans would not be much better for the economy. Compare them and their ideas to Liz Truss, note the threat they are to earned benefits and health care, or how they all voted against the Inflation Reduction Act. I don't know. It might be out of desperation but the conversation seems to really need to change. We have three weeks left and Americans only remember that which is recent. So maybe this could have some impact?

But anyway, after yesterday and today too, I think I'm f***ing done. I'm doing what I did last year when Youngkin started gaining the best timed momentum possible and fleeing this forum and political news in general, if I can, like Indiana Jones from a boulder. And if the elections end up as disappointing as I am now expecting them to be, after being lulled into a false sense of hope over the summer, you may not see me back for as long of a time as I left last time. I cannot f***ing stand this country's politics and I want to wipe my mind of ever having an interest in it.

[Unelectable Bystander]

There’s no guarantee that a 2014 redo is in the works, but it is striking that just a few weeks ago posters said it couldn’t possibly be 2014 since that required weird polling that nobody could really understand followed by reputable posters showing large R leads. That’s exactly the situation

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That yr in 2014 wasn't a total loss we won AK Gov Bill Walker won and Jeanne Shaheen best Scott Brown she was losing in that Senate race, MT Treasure that yr said Scott Brown was gonna win he LOST

Every Eday we win an upset except for 2004/2016 in 2000 Jean Carnhan beat Ashcroft and tied the Senate and Jim Jeffords flipped the Senate and 2020 GA Sen went blue and 2018 Sherrod Brown win

Bystander and users think that when Rs win it's a clean sweep no it's not the only ones that have the big blue waves are Ds not Rs I just gave you numerous examples Jean Carnhan, Jeanne Shaheen and GA Senate 2020 and there are more