2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Doomers normally: Polling is dead

Doomers when an R+4 poll comes out: OH MY GOD F@CK THE AVERAGES THIS ONE POLL SHOWS REPUBLICANS UP THIS IS LITERALLY THE END OF DEMOCRACY

[Person Man]

Doomers normally: Polling is dead

Doomers when an R+4 poll comes out: OH MY GOD F@CK THE AVERAGES THIS ONE POLL SHOWS REPUBLICANS UP THIS IS LITERALLY THE END OF DEMOCRACY

It would be awesome if Republicans got this doomerish for once.

[Brittain33]

Hey Alben, how is that Selzer poll looking?

As others have pointed out multiple times, Selzer was a voice in the wilderness in both 2016 and 2020 which conflicted with the CW and turned out to be right on Election Day.

[wbrocks67]

Gotta love how WBrocks trusts a poll with so many undecideds versus a poll with only a few. Such an innovative thinker in the polling field!

Never said I trusted it, nor did I say it would be the final result. Literally just posted it because is the polling thread after all. Some of you need to take a breath and get some fresh air.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

A lot of discussion about the new NYT/Siena poll in Nate Cohn's "The Tilt" newsletter this morning.

It begins with a lengthy discussion of how the GOP lead in the LV screen is actually 3 points, not 4; and in fact the difference between the LV and RV screens are only 2.5 points, not 4.

Then a section titled "What’s different about our polls this year?", where I found this interesting note:

We now use additional information about the attitudes of respondents in determining whether they’re likely to vote, including whether respondents are undecided; whether their views about the president align with their party; whether they like the candidate they intend to vote for; whether they back the party out of power in a midterm; and so on, all based on previous Times/Siena polls. At the same time, we now give even more weight to a respondent’s track record of voting than we did in the past. (Emphasis in original)

Doe this mean that new voters (i.e. those with no record of voting in the past) are unlikely to be included as likely voters at all?  

I'd be curious how this impacts the poll in light of how the disproportionate number of newly registered voters who are young women.  Note that this poll has an unusually small gender gap; I wonder if missing these voters might have contributed to that.

[wbrocks67]

I think it's a good piece of the whole idea that LV models are really cycling out young voters in particular. Whether they're newer voters, or not "high propensity" enough.

Not shocking that the poll then finds Dems only +11 among 18-29 year olds, 52-41. That group was D+25 in 2020 (61-36) and D+37 in 2018 (68-31)

Last time it was that low was actually 2014, when it was D+11, 54-43.

[Lief 🗽]

Some friendly advice… start mentally preparing for the GOP to win 52 senate seats and 230 House seats now. Better to come to grips with that now instead of at 9pm on election night.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Just a note about the crosstabs and Republicans winning 18% of the black vote:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1582021511799791616

We should all know this though about trusting crosstabs.

[BenjiG98]

Some friendly advice… start mentally preparing for the GOP to win 52 senate seats and 230 House seats now. Better to come to grips with that now instead of at 9pm on election night.

230 house seats really wouldn't be that shocking to me.

[wbrocks67]

That's why I think the most illuminating sample is the White vote, where the n= sample is the biggest, and Dems are doing pretty damn good there.

[Devils30]

I prefer averages so I will go with 538 and the median GCB. I think some forget that despite the latest R polling "surge", their GCB is the same as it was on 8/25- which was post NY-19.

I feel like this is around the median outcome right now:

https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/kqy3kn5

I know some GOP will think it's going to be a 40 seat gain but if its an even GCB or R+1, there are not as many districts with huge GOP opportunities. At R+1, some of the Biden +7 seats might stay stubbornly 51-49 Dem.

You can see how Dems would hold the House. CO-8, NC-13, NJ-7, CA-45, NY-22 have a lot of similarities and OR-5, PA-7,8 could always go either way. It is the inside straight that is similar to how Trump carried WI, PA, MI in 2016 when everyone expected him to lose.

And you can see with these, AZ-1, CA-40,41 how the Dems could have a solid chance to flip the House back in 2024.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Some friendly advice… start mentally preparing for the GOP to win 52 senate seats and 230 House seats now. Better to come to grips with that now instead of at 9pm on election night.

230 house seats really wouldn't be that shocking to me.

They won't get 230 Rs are tied in MT 2users need to wait til Eday, just like at 6 am Whom came out and said Red wave Millennial Moderate no one else he said 54 R Sen seat and 245 H just like his pal Progressive moderate

It's important to note it's very likely the worst case scenario for Ds is a 224/211 RH and 52/47/1 Senate and we still have more Sen and Gov pickup, Rs keep saying 230 or 246 because if it's 220 they know we will it back in 24 Rs never want Ds to get a Filibuster proof Trifecta

People like Millennial Moderate believe that too and he is supposed to be a red avatar just like S019

Just like Rs don't want Ds to win WI because that's our 52 ND seats they know it's not Lean R but they keep saying it it's Lean R

[wbrocks67]

This is pretty illuminating. As we know, it's all about turnout.

If youth turnout is similar to 2018 (and 2020), Dems can hold the house.

However, current models from CBS/YouGov and NYT/Siena assume that their turnout will be much lower than the last few cycles.

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1582028711888490496

[Devils30]

This is pretty illuminating. As we know, it's all about turnout.

If youth turnout is similar to 2018 (and 2020), Dems can hold the house.

However, current models from CBS/YouGov and NYT/Siena assume that their turnout will be much lower than the last few cycles.

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1582028711888490496

This is a district by district battle. Ds holding Alaska, OH-9, PA-8 and ME-2 would be huge. There are very few Biden +4 seats, notice how there is a large cluster of Biden +1-2 and Biden +5-7. If Ds can hold those Trump/Dem. seats it vastly increases the odds of pulling it out with a D+0.5 generic ballot and some good luck with suburban voters (see NC-13, NJ-7)

[soundchaser]

Do we know what youth turnout by % was for NY-19 and AK-AL?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's very funny all these R GCB keeps coming out we still see the same polls Ds holding their ground in 303 states you know Rs we're 48/42 on the GCB ballot in both 2010/2014, IL in both Edays and PA in 2010 and MI weren't Safe D Quinn barely win in 2010 and lost in 2014 and Corbett won in 2010 and lost in 2014 and Synder won MI if Rs we're plus 4 on GCB we would dramatically see changes not in wave insurance seats but in 3o3 that's why it's nothing to get alarmed about

Do Users know why Rs we're advantage in 1994/2010/14, Obamacare repeal and Clinton didn't need to nuke the Filibuster to pass it Obama put it thru reconciliation

Walz is still leading Jensen and Pritzker is still leading by 10 that's not an R wave, Rs struggling in MT just like AK and Zinke was supposed to win a landslide like PALIN

[Devils30]

Biden is at 39/58 in the NYT sample. If he's 43-46% it changes things and this difference does seem to be the difference in the R+3 and D+3 polls.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is at 39/58 in the NYT sample. If he's 43-46% it changes things and this difference does seem to be the difference in the R+3 and D+3 polls.

The pundry keeps trying to make it R wave and under a 303 map in 2020 we lost H seatss in a D +3.4 Eday and Rs had 241 H seats in 2012 but we won Sen seats in 2012 in a D +3.4 Eday

Obama won by 3.4 in 2012 and Rs had 241 H seats and Ds won the Sen obviously, Rs aren't gonna win 241 H seats

[wbrocks67]

Biden is at 39/58 in the NYT sample. If he's 43-46% it changes things and this difference does seem to be the difference in the R+3 and D+3 polls.

Yep, I'm curious what it is in their RV sample.

Funny that ABC/Wapo had the same result in their poll and basically had the same result down to RV/LV differences.

Then at the same time, you have Fox News showing Biden up to 46% and YouGov/Economist and YouGOv/CBS showing Biden at 48%

[Ferguson97]

AP-NORC has D+7 on GCB, 41-34

https://apnorc.org/projects/voters-expect-the-2022-elections-to-have-serious-impacts-for-the-country/

LOL I would literally bet my kidneys this doesn’t come within 3 points of being accurate. Holy moly… the respected AP comes out with an absolute laugher of a poll?! Such a bad look for them

R+4 from a respected pollster = gospel, write the autopsy now
D+8 from a respected pollster = fake news, they’re ruining their reputation

If you’re going to selectively ignore polls and just go with your gut, then just admit that.

And I know that you specifically are a troll, but I really dislike the Atlas mentality of “whatever poll I saw most recently is the most accurate”.

[wbrocks67]

Seems the biggest shift from their last poll was Women, probably in part due to that subgroup of Independent Women swinging.

Their last poll in September was D+13 among Women, this one is tied. There was less a shift among Men, where it was R+9 then, R+5 now.

Independents were tied last time, now R+10.

If I had to guess, most of those Independent Women were in the 45-64 age group. That was the only age group who saw a huge shift, with it being R+8 last time to R+21 this time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pelosi is gonna appear on MSNBC tomorrow what is she gonna say we're gonna lose the H because War in Ukraine and Gas prices went up from 3.99 to 4.99 again, she is gonna sugar coat it and say we're gonna win Rs are outraising Ds in the H by far

I don't know how their fundraising is but they keep emailing me about Donating, I don't have it

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

For all the naysayers they just put on Steller the NYTimes poll at 46/46 not 49/45 Ds are fine

[GALeftist]

Just put it in the average people good lord

[MillennialModerate]

AP-NORC has D+7 on GCB, 41-34

https://apnorc.org/projects/voters-expect-the-2022-elections-to-have-serious-impacts-for-the-country/

LOL I would literally bet my kidneys this doesn’t come within 3 points of being accurate. Holy moly… the respected AP comes out with an absolute laugher of a poll?! Such a bad look for them

R+4 from a respected pollster = gospel, write the autopsy now
D+8 from a respected pollster = fake news, they’re ruining their reputation

If you’re going to selectively ignore polls and just go with your gut, then just admit that.

And I know that you specifically are a troll, but I really dislike the Atlas mentality of “whatever poll I saw most recently is the most accurate”.

Spare me the bullsh**t about being a “troll”

The reality is the “doomers” have been more right then the sycophants have in here. Period.

And there is good reason to trust one over the others. Because polling had been consistently and dramatically more favorable in the Democratic direction in the past six years. So reading a poll that shows a four point lead for the Republicans, and a five point gain from a month ago, seems practically speaking more realistic and more likely.

There isn’t a single poster on these boards other then the broken record sanders who would say (at least credibly) that the D+7 is more likely then the R+4…. Hell a D+7 would see Dems not just hold the house but make gains. That’s laughable.