2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1580282673037049857?t=glnTicLGnIyA5QFW7GJ...

[wbrocks67]

Very frustrating, but it doesn't appear Dems are really actively trying to go after Steel or Kim at this point.

[Lief 🗽]

D+6 is enough for Spanberger and probably Luria.
https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1580311418330443778?s=21&t=Gv5m0WXW9o...

[wbrocks67]

Biden's approval being 39/56 in VA makes no sense. Even last November, it was 46/53 I believe on Election night.

[UncleSam]

Biden's approval being 39/56 in VA makes no sense. Even last November, it was 46/53 I believe on Election night.

It makes sense if his national approval is in the mid to high 30s, which isn’t far off from most polling we have seen. All these numbers have ranges of a couple points on them anyway, so I really don’t think this is a particularly crazy result - it’s probably like 42% in actuality in VA and a couple points lower nationally.

[Person Man]

D+6 is enough for Spanberger and probably Luria.
https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1580311418330443778?s=21&t=Gv5m0WXW9o...

That’s basically D+ 0.5 nationwide provided things are static.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

D+6 is enough for Spanberger and probably Luria.
https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1580311418330443778?s=21&t=Gv5m0WXW9o...

That’s basically D+ 0.5 nationwide provided things are static.

You don't have anything but four months of consistent polling data and hundreds of polls proving this. 2016 told me DeSantis will win by 15 so obviously it's R+5 environment.

[S019]

Luria hanging on would greatly improve our chances of winning the House majority, so it’s nice to see.

[wbrocks67]

Biden's approval being 39/56 in VA makes no sense. Even last November, it was 46/53 I believe on Election night.

It makes sense if his national approval is in the mid to high 30s, which isn’t far off from most polling we have seen. All these numbers have ranges of a couple points on them anyway, so I really don’t think this is a particularly crazy result - it’s probably like 42% in actuality in VA and a couple points lower nationally.

I'm going off of the 538 average, which pegs it at -7 right now about LV/RV - 45/52. So in that sense, -17 in VA would make no sense.

His national approval was about -8 on election night 2021 among LV/RV. VA showed -7.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1580327633447190528

[philly09]

Something to think about.

https://twitter.com/myster_E_23/status/1580236239613353984

[2016]

Economist is ran by Morris who has been badly off in 2016, 2018 and 2012.
No way we get a D+13 Electorate.

[Devils30]

Very frustrating, but it doesn't appear Dems are really actively trying to go after Steel or Kim at this point.

Steel was a Clinton, Biden and no on recall district. Always a chance the Dems get lucky but Dobbs should be a focus in these Cali seats. Not sure why CA-27 is lean R with Roll Call, Garcia is as cooked as any GOP incumbent.

[kwabbit]

Economist is ran by Morris who has been badly off in 2016, 2018 and 2012.
No way we get a D+13 Electorate.

I don't think Morris would make the D sample super heavy to favor Dems. He's not the best prognosticator, but he's not explicitly partisan.

[Boobs]

The Economist house model in 2020 wasn’t run or created by Morris, only the presidential model was.

[kwabbit]

Very frustrating, but it doesn't appear Dems are really actively trying to go after Steel or Kim at this point.

Steel was a Clinton, Biden and no on recall district. Always a chance the Dems get lucky but Dobbs should be a focus in these Cali seats. Not sure why CA-27 is lean R with Roll Call, Garcia is as cooked as any GOP incumbent.

Apparently good internals for Garcia. During the summer when the Dobbs backlash was at its height, I thought Garcia was toast. But he obviously has some magic. Biden +13 district and doesn't even try to appear moderate but still the favorite in the eyes of the prognosticators. Even so, his district is somewhere I can see the Dems winning even on a good night for the GOP.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With UT all Ds have to do to keep 50 votes is win AZ and PA without NV, WI and GA, McMullin is definitely gonna caucus with Ds he said he is in talks with Angus King and said he isn't Maga but of course 24 is a big Eday we want wave insurance so we don't lose MT, OH and WV in 24

But, Rick Scott should Gwen Graham gets in in 24 will lose he is more vulnerable than Rubio and of course Collins is DOA in 26 because Voting Rights wasn't up in 20, Trump was in office, she Filibuster it after Biden got elected

The Rs aren't gonna win the Senate with McMullin leading, someone emailed me and told me to drop McMullin from my prediction well guess what he is Fav now

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Luria hanging on would greatly improve our chances of winning the House majority, so it’s nice to see.

Definitely, but I’m still not sold.  Kiggins is definitely an over-hyped candidate, but she’s still a solid recruit in a Generic Republican sort of way.  This race will likely be very competitive either way, but I’m still bearish about Luria’s chances.

Very frustrating, but it doesn't appear Dems are really actively trying to go after Steel or Kim at this point.

Kim was a recruiting fail, although it was also always going to be the toughest nut to crack of the Orange County seats.  Even at the height of the Dobbs backlash, this was clearly not going to be the year we flipped her seat.  

Our odds of beating Steel are definitely lower than they were in August.  Jay Chen isn’t a bad candidate, but he doesn’t seem to be a particularly good one either.  A big part of why we didn’t get boxed out in the old version of Kim’s seat in 2018 was b/c Chen took one for the team and dropped out with the understanding that the primary field would be cleared for him in the next competitive Orange County House race.  I think it was worth it, but we just gotta bite the bullet here.  

Depending on what internal polling looks like, this might be a seat where it makes sense to shift money to boosting an incumbent who is running a strong, competitive race but needs another cash infusion to keep from getting killed in the ad wars during the home stretch.  

The one that would frustrate me is if the DCCC cuts Christy Smith loose for some reason (although I don’t think they will and IIRC, she’s not exactly wanting for money).  She’s definitely got a solid shot of flipping this seat (I’d even argue this will probably be the year Garcia goes down) and we’re gonna need every pickup we can get just to cancel out the inevitable losses in places like FL, GA-6, AZ-6, etc.  

Even if Smith is running a bad campaign again, this is one of those seats where partisanship and the current party coalition demographics alone will generally still give Democrats at least a 50-50 shot in any given non-off year GE.

[Tekken_Guy]

Luria hanging on would greatly improve our chances of winning the House majority, so it’s nice to see.

Definitely, but I’m still not sold.  Kiggins is definitely an over-hyped candidate, but she’s still a solid recruit in a Generic Republican sort of way.  This race will likely be very competitive either way, but I’m still bearish about Luria’s chances.

Very frustrating, but it doesn't appear Dems are really actively trying to go after Steel or Kim at this point.

Kim was a recruiting fail, although it was also always going to be the toughest nut to crack of the Orange County seats.  Even at the height of the Dobbs backlash, this was clearly not going to be the year we flipped her seat.  

Our odds of beating Steel are definitely lower than they were in August.  Jay Chen isn’t a bad candidate, but he doesn’t seem to be a particularly good one either.  A big part of why we didn’t get boxed out in the old version of Kim’s seat in 2018 was b/c Chen took one for the team and dropped out with the understanding that the primary field would be cleared for him in the next competitive Orange County House race.  I think it was worth it, but we just gotta bite the bullet here.  

Depending on what internal polling looks like, this might be a seat where it makes sense to shift money to boosting an incumbent who is running a strong, competitive race but needs another cash infusion to keep from getting killed in the ad wars during the home stretch.  

The one that would frustrate me is if the DCCC cuts Christy Smith loose for some reason (although I don’t think they will and IIRC, she’s not exactly wanting for money).  She’s definitely got a solid shot of flipping this seat (I’d even argue this will probably be the year Garcia goes down) and we’re gonna need every pickup we can get just to cancel out the inevitable losses in places like FL, GA-6, AZ-6, etc.  

Even if Smith is running a bad campaign again, this is one of those seats where partisanship and the current party coalition demographics alone will generally still give Democrats at least a 50-50 shot in any given non-off year GE.

 I think Garcia is still favored. This is going to be a worse year than 2020 for Dems and Garcia’s district is only slightly worse for him than the old one. This is also why I think Valadao wins too.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Something to think about.

https://twitter.com/myster_E_23/status/1580236239613353984

This is why I believe the GCB and the Biden approval numbers to be flawed. When every single state poll has unrealistic GCB and Biden numbers compared to the national averages, are they actually unrealistic or do we simply not know enough about what’s going into the national polls?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Something to think about.

https://twitter.com/myster_E_23/status/1580236239613353984

This is why I believe the GCB and the Biden approval numbers to be flawed. When every single state poll has unrealistic GCB and Biden numbers compared to the national averages, are they actually unrealistic or do we simply not know enough about what’s going into the national polls?

I know Rs keep talking about Approvals and Trump was never at 50 it doesn't matter because we don't need to win a single red state all we need is 270 and Obama got 300 not 400 Clinton was the last D to reach 400 on Ross Perot but it shows R weakness in TX, NEB, SD, OK why because Ds are outpolling Biden in all the swing states in AZ, GA and PA the Ds are winning by 4 and Biden won by 50 K votes

Carol Blood is within 7 or Pillsen, I'd we win the Gov race in NEB Bob Kerrey whom he lost to Deb Fisher will be appointed Senator to fill Sasse seat, HOFMEISTER is leading Dtott in OK and Jaimie Smith is only down 4 in SD why because Ds are outpolling Biden in all the swing states

I know these are wave insurance but I never make R nut maps ever, some users do

[GeorgiaModerate]

Someone was wondering the other day whether NYT/Upshot would be doing more polls.

https://twitter.com/UpshotNYT/status/1580188137359552512

[Person Man]

Someone was wondering the other day whether NYT/Upshot would be doing more polls.

https://twitter.com/UpshotNYT/status/1580188137359552512

Imagine if Democrats stopped answering or started lying to them. It would make sense if Republican rank-and-file are using the polling apparatus as a way to push a propaganda/psyop campaign and Democrats saw them as bullsh**t too.  The average 45 year old partisan person with a Junior College education probably doesn't think like this, but they know that the polls have been lying. The results would render it impossible to actually do polls anymore. I guess that is another victim of ubiquitous communication and social media.

[wbrocks67]

Something to think about.

https://twitter.com/myster_E_23/status/1580236239613353984

This is why I believe the GCB and the Biden approval numbers to be flawed. When every single state poll has unrealistic GCB and Biden numbers compared to the national averages, are they actually unrealistic or do we simply not know enough about what’s going into the national polls?

That person isn’t counting the “I have already voted” option.

With that added, it’s Reps 63% “definitely will vote”, Dems 57% “definitely will vote” for totals

However, among 2020 recall vote, it’s Biden voters 77% “definitely will vote” total, and 78% Trump voters

Also, not sure what Indie approval has to do with anything. We've already talked about how prez approval doesn't mean much here.

and G. Eliott runs Economist, which is a partner of this poll; he doesn't run the poll itself. That's YouGov, same as every other one of their polls

I would also argue that if the 538 approval average is correct - which IMO it is pretty damn close bc it lined up with the 2021 results at the time - that some pollsters are lining up. For example, all of the Suffolk polls for Biden approval have lined up with 538.

Some others however haven't - like ones showing Bidens approval at like -22 in GA, AZ, MI, etc.

[wbrocks67]

CNN/SSRS has D+3 on the generic ballot, 50-47

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/13/politics/cnn-poll-voter-preferences/index.html

They do however have R+5, 48-43, among "competitive districts", but the MoE on that sample is nearly 6%, so not a terrific barometer.