2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1577712958377164800

[wbrocks67]

Where is the evidence behind the TX-34 shift? I guess there's been private polling since we've seen no public polling?

Beto ahead of the ticket would likely be good for Ds as well, at least with enthusiasm. What are the fundraising #s like here?

(also Flores is like Q-anon crazy, too)

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/aaronblake/status/1577664253196115975

.... PA nowhere to be seen on here but CO and WA mentioned? lol

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/aaronblake/status/1577664253196115975

.... PA nowhere to be seen on here but CO and WA mentioned? lol

Pennsylvania isn't a pickup opportunity, they already hold the seat. They're trying not to lose it.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/aaronblake/status/1577664253196115975

.... PA nowhere to be seen on here but CO and WA mentioned? lol

Pennsylvania isn't a pickup opportunity, they already hold the seat. They're trying not to lose it.

ah yes, i read it wrong. thanks lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Alot of these conservative polls are hiding the minority vote or female vote and 2020 Rs over performed because Trump gave out stimulus checks, some people say it's Bradley effect but it's the opposite of Bradley effect that's why you get 41 percent Approvals and then you get Ryan up 49/38 and Fetterman up 55/36 that's why DeSantis isn't winning by 11 Rubio is only up 6 the bump is 5 pts from IAN not 10

Rubio has a 5 pt bump and DeSantis has a 10 pr bump, no both got a 5 pt bump from IAN

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/decisiondeskhq/status/1577735647988965376?s=46&t=KOolEKZ...

[wbrocks67]

Scott not mentioning NH despite the NRSC/SLF pumping $20M+ into that race for Bolduc is... a choice

[President Johnson]

Scott not mentioning NH despite the NRSC/SLF pumping $20M+ into that race for Bolduc is... a choice

I think it's possible he just forgot about it?

[wbrocks67]

Dems feeling good about IL-13

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1577732406450298880

[new_patomic]

Dems feeling good about IL-13

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1577732406450298880

I genuinely never understood why they would spend here to begin with.

You don't create a Biden +10 district for nothing. These aren't even swing areas they're banding together, it's Champaign and East St. Louis.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Where is the evidence behind the TX-34 shift? I guess there's been private polling since we've seen no public polling?

Beto ahead of the ticket would likely be good for Ds as well, at least with enthusiasm. What are the fundraising #s like here?

(also Flores is like Q-anon crazy, too)

I feel like it might be an overreaction to the polls suggesting the Hispanic trends from 2020 may continue. Still, in a Biden+16 district, that probably won't be enough for Flores to be able to win again. Maybe it'll be closer than expected, but she didn't over-perform that much in the special election.

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/aaronblake/status/1577664253196115975

What a bizarre interview. It does sound like AZ is a bit of a lost cause though it’s not over til it’s over.

If the goal was to motivate Republicans and hype them up about WA/CO, why demote AZ in the process?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/aaronblake/status/1577664253196115975

What a bizarre interview. It does sound like AZ is a bit of a lost cause though it’s not over til it’s over.

If the goal was to motivate Republicans and hype them up about WA/CO, why demote AZ in the process?

Well from a strategic standpoint it probably would be good if O'Dea and Smiley run for office again for the GOP, while it makes sense to end Bolduc's political relevance.

[GALeftist]

Check out RCP's new "projection" methodology. This is just sad bruh. I got a particular kick out of the fact that there was no possible way for them to cook/unskew the numbers enough to get Walker ahead so they just arbitrarily decided that he would win lol.

[soundchaser]

Serious “apples to oranges” problem here comparing presidential margins to Senate ones.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Check out RCP's new "projection" methodology. This is just sad bruh. I got a particular kick out of the fact that there was no possible way for them to cook/unskew the numbers enough to get Walker ahead so they just arbitrarily decided that he would win lol.

Most of this isn't completely ridiculous - it's not exactly how I'm looking at things, but trying to account for prior polling error isn't the worst idea - but the Georgia s*** is just flat-out partisan hackery.

[soundchaser]

The more I think about this chart, the worse it gets. Are you comparing an equal number of polls from different polling firms in your averages? Is one of them full of Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage when it WASN’T in 2016 or 2020? We have basically nothing from Quinnipiac, Siena, or PPP this cycle — if you think those were too Dem-leaning before, then they’ll inevitably have an effect on underestimations.

 This is a ridiculous thing for any reputable site to do.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The more I think about this chart, the worse it gets. Are you comparing an equal number of polls from different polling firms in your averages? Is one of them full of Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage when it WASN’T in 2016 or 2020? We have basically nothing from Quinnipiac, Siena, or PPP this cycle — if you think those were too Dem-leaning before, then they’ll inevitably have an effect on underestimations.

 This is a ridiculous thing for any reputable site to do.

Yes, it would be.

[soundchaser]

The more I think about this chart, the worse it gets. Are you comparing an equal number of polls from different polling firms in your averages? Is one of them full of Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage when it WASN’T in 2016 or 2020? We have basically nothing from Quinnipiac, Siena, or PPP this cycle — if you think those were too Dem-leaning before, then they’ll inevitably have an effect on underestimations.

 This is a ridiculous thing for any reputable site to do.

Yes, it would be.

I almost added “but clearly RCP crossed that threshold a while ago.”

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The more I think about this chart, the worse it gets. Are you comparing an equal number of polls from different polling firms in your averages? Is one of them full of Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage when it WASN’T in 2016 or 2020? We have basically nothing from Quinnipiac, Siena, or PPP this cycle — if you think those were too Dem-leaning before, then they’ll inevitably have an effect on underestimations.

 This is a ridiculous thing for any reputable site to do.

This is a very important point. Far fewer flagrant Dem outliers this year, and the ones we have been seeing - Center Street and the like - aren't even being included in RCP's average anyway.

[GALeftist]

Check out RCP's new "projection" methodology. This is just sad bruh. I got a particular kick out of the fact that there was no possible way for them to cook/unskew the numbers enough to get Walker ahead so they just arbitrarily decided that he would win lol.

Most of this isn't completely ridiculous - it's not exactly how I'm looking at things, but trying to account for prior polling error isn't the worst idea - but the Georgia s*** is just flat-out partisan hackery.

I'd have a lot more sympathy for their trying to account for a possible polling miss if they hadn't obviously cooked various things to get Oz just over the hump.

34 days to election day in 2020, RCP had Biden+6.3; 538 had Biden+5.6. Essentially the same. 34 days to election day in 2022, RCP has Fetterman+4.3; 538 has Fetterman+6.6. That's a >2 point gap. So essentially what this chart is showing, at least in PA, is that they took the error between their polling averages and the actual results in 2020 when they were more or less an honest broker (things really went downhill only in the latter days of 2020 to my memory) and then carried it over to now, when they are obviously putting their thumb on the scale, and got like a 0.7 point lead for Oz. Yeah, no kidding you're going to come out with an Oz win if you do that.

At the end of the day, it seems obvious that the good folks at that site want to dabble in punditry because they disagree with their own polling averages even after they've significantly altered them to be more R favorable. That's perfectly defensible. What is not defensible, in my opinion, is cloaking what are essentially their educated guesses in this pseudoscientific nonsense.

EDIT: Added parenthetical

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

My favorite part is how they come up with Warnock +4.4 and still find a way to make him lose.

[Lief 🗽]

As I'm sure people are aware, I think looking at past polling error can be very helpful. But the way RCP does it is really dumb, because their averages are fake and arbitrary in the first place. It would be interesting if 538 did it, where the averages are actually done correctly.

[Pericles]

That does show why Democrats are favored in the Senate though. New Hampshire obviously isn't happening, or any other safer seats. Kelly and Fetterman have decent leads so Republicans need significant polling errors to beat them. Georgia also is unlikely to flip and Warnock is moving ahead. That's 50 seats right there.