2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[ProgressiveModerate]

So I agree with prognosticators who say the GOP is a virtual lock for the house.

HOWEVER: With the generic ballot being around tied .. even Dems up a few points. How are others coming to that conclusion with the generic ballot favoring Dems?

“With polling showing Dems tied or even ahead in polls, how can you say Dems are ahead”

[wbrocks67]

NYT/Siena GCB at D+2, 46-44

Their last poll in July was D+1, 44-43 I believe

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/16/us/politics/biden-democrats-abortion-trump-poll.html

[UncleSam]

NYT/Siena GCB at D+2, 46-44

Their last poll in July was D+1, 44-43 I believe

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/16/us/politics/biden-democrats-abortion-trump-poll.html

Lots of interesting numbers in here, though using RV at this stage is kind of embarrassing malpractice.

[MillennialModerate]

So I agree with prognosticators who say the GOP is a virtual lock for the house.

HOWEVER: With the generic ballot being around tied .. even Dems up a few points. How are others coming to that conclusion with the generic ballot favoring Dems?

“With polling showing Dems tied or even ahead in polls, how can you say Dems are ahead”

What I’m saying is how are people getting to the conclusion the house is a lock for the GOP when the generic ballot is between tied and D+2… that’s 2 points off from a Dem win.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So I agree with prognosticators who say the GOP is a virtual lock for the house.

HOWEVER: With the generic ballot being around tied .. even Dems up a few points. How are others coming to that conclusion with the generic ballot favoring Dems?

“With polling showing Dems tied or even ahead in polls, how can you say Dems are ahead”

What I’m saying is how are people getting to the conclusion the house is a lock for the GOP when the generic ballot is between tied and D+2… that’s 2 points off from a Dem win.

No, because geographic sorting and gerrymandering (which is just artificial geographic sorting) cause Democratic votes to be located less efficiently than Republicans.  It's been estimated that under the current lines, a GCB of D+2.5 or so equates to a nearly tied House outcome, while a tied GCB would result in R control.  (This assumes that votes are distributed proportionally by district according to their partisan lean, which in practice won't happen perfectly, but it's still a good approximation.)

So with the current GCB value, the Republicans are still favored to take control of the House, but it's far from a lock; those who insist it's a lock are overconfident.  Six months ago it looked like a lock, but I don't think they've noticed that the environment has changed significantly.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

So I agree with prognosticators who say the GOP is a virtual lock for the house.

HOWEVER: With the generic ballot being around tied .. even Dems up a few points. How are others coming to that conclusion with the generic ballot favoring Dems?

“With polling showing Dems tied or even ahead in polls, how can you say Dems are ahead”

What I’m saying is how are people getting to the conclusion the house is a lock for the GOP when the generic ballot is between tied and D+2… that’s 2 points off from a Dem win.

Why are you asking this when -you- are the one saying the GOP is a lock to win the House?

[Person Man]

I believe Rasmussen just came out with 42-43 R, which sounds really good for Republicans but their last poll was 42-46 R.

[SnowLabrador]

I believe Rasmussen just came out with 42-43 R, which sounds really good for Republicans but their last poll was 42-46 R.

That is very much consistent with the hypothesis that after Dobbs, there are more shy GOP voters now. That's what I happen to believe.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I believe Rasmussen just came out with 42-43 R, which sounds really good for Republicans but their last poll was 42-46 R.

That is very much consistent with the hypothesis that after Dobbs, there are more shy GOP voters now. That's what I happen to believe.

That ...does not line up with the reality of the special elections.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So I agree with prognosticators who say the GOP is a virtual lock for the house.

HOWEVER: With the generic ballot being around tied .. even Dems up a few points. How are others coming to that conclusion with the generic ballot favoring Dems?

“With polling showing Dems tied or even ahead in polls, how can you say Dems are ahead”

What I’m saying is how are people getting to the conclusion the house is a lock for the GOP when the generic ballot is between tied and D+2… that’s 2 points off from a Dem win.

It's called voting we won AK a red state and Cali recall and NY 19 the only EDay Rs won was VA you are such a DOOMER nothing is final until we vote, just remember you wasn't here in 2008 OR, NC, AK and GA were locks for R Smith, Stevens, And Liddy Dole were all favored to win what happened we voted and D's won whom was Veep during that time Biden as he is Prez we're not gonna sweep everything but we can still win 52+ seats in Sen and if need be win the H back in 24 with Biden on ballo
Chambliss was a lock of winning 5/9 what happened he went to a runoff and Dean Martin wasnt a top tier candidate we have top tier candidate Ryan, Beasley and Demings and Crist, some of you guys act like just because TRAFALGAR have PA close it's over the Red wave is complete just 🛑

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I believe Rasmussen just came out with 42-43 R, which sounds really good for Republicans but their last poll was 42-46 R.

That is very much consistent with the hypothesis that after Dobbs, there are more shy GOP voters now. That's what I happen to believe.

Don't you ever stop Dooming we won AK a red state and won NY 19 Molinaro was ahead in pre Election+8

[President Johnson]

I believe Rasmussen just came out with 42-43 R, which sounds really good for Republicans but their last poll was 42-46 R.

That is very much consistent with the hypothesis that after Dobbs, there are more shy GOP voters now. That's what I happen to believe.

That ...does not line up with the reality of the special elections.

It does line up with SnowLabrador's belief that Republicans are always favored, though, and that any event helps them electorally.

[Minnesota Mike]

I believe Rasmussen just came out with 42-43 R, which sounds really good for Republicans but their last poll was 42-46 R.

Closer we get to the election the more Rassy falls in line. Have to maintain that A- rating from 538.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I believe Rasmussen just came out with 42-43 R, which sounds really good for Republicans but their last poll was 42-46 R.

That is very much consistent with the hypothesis that after Dobbs, there are more shy GOP voters now. That's what I happen to believe.

That ...does not line up with the reality of the special elections.

It does line up with SnowLabrador's belief that Republicans are always favored, though, and that any event helps them electorally.

He said Gary Peters and Warnock wete DOA he was wrong

[Brittain33]

I believe Rasmussen just came out with 42-43 R, which sounds really good for Republicans but their last poll was 42-46 R.

That is very much consistent with the hypothesis that after Dobbs, there are more shy GOP voters now. That's what I happen to believe.

That ...does not line up with the reality of the special elections.

They’re so shy, they’re too embarrassed to go to the polling booth and vote. Hobbled with social anxiety.

[wbrocks67]

Data for Progress has R+2 on their latest GCB. Their last was R+1.

Kinda confirms their continuing more GOP-leaning streak so far this cycle.

[Person Man]

Data for Progress has R+2 on their latest GCB. Their last was R+1.

Kinda confirms their continuing more GOP-leaning streak so far this cycle.

The fiasco in New York was something. I don’t really buy district level polling by that much but come on!

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1571484577100595201

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's been a 303 map but the question is can OH, NC and FL flip and is the H a lost cause. That's the issue I am confident we are gonna win our Gov and S races NV, AZ, GA, WI, PA and MI so all these polls about whom control Congress and the fact is we still have UT, LA and IA


The H can be immediately called for Rs and we will have outstanding Senate seats

It's a 303/125 map and it's probably that in the H but Rs aren't Guaranteed Red Sen or Gov Seats Schumer said 3/8 seats if we do lose the H win it back in 24, this can very well be a 2012 not 2010/14 EDay

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1571484233381695498

[2016]

The Democrats need to win the Popular Vote on the House Generic Ballot by 3 Points or more, I personally think closer to 5 Points to have a shot at retaining the House.

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1571490482714206208

There are some good and bad News for both Parties in the NBC Poll. Democrats leading Republicans 58-38 among White College Graduates and 53-40 among Women is bad News for Republicans. But in away I expected the Women Gap given the Dobbs Decision (Republicans probably bleeding White Suburban Women with a College Degree)

However the bad News for Democrats is that they are trailing Republicans by even wider margins about Whites without a College Degree (31/64). They also trailing among Independents (37/43) and only have a 46-42 lead among Hispanics.

I just cannot see Democrats retaining the House of Representatives if the lose Independents and winning Hispanics by only 4 Points. Just not happening.

Kentucky & Indiana have Statewide Races and close early. It will be interesting to see how Booker in KY does in the Cincinnati Suburbs (Kenton County, Boone County, Campbell County) and how McDermott will perform in the Donut Counties around Indianapolis.

Indiana could give us some clues how the Abortion Issue plays out. Indiana does have one of the most restrictive Abortion Laws.

[wbrocks67]

Almost every single pollster has continued to show some type of movement towards Dems and of course then we have the likes of Trafalgar who naturally have the momentum with Rs in every race.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1571518227779579905

[Person Man]

The Democrats need to win the Popular Vote on the House Generic Ballot by 3 Points or more, I personally think closer to 5 Points to have a shot at retaining the House.

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1571490482714206208

There are some good and bad News for both Parties in the NBC Poll. Democrats leading Republicans 58-38 among White College Graduates and 53-40 among Women is bad News for Republicans. But in away I expected the Women Gap given the Dobbs Decision (Republicans probably bleeding White Suburban Women with a College Degree)

However the bad News for Democrats is that they are trailing Republicans by even wider margins about Whites without a College Degree (31/64). They also trailing among Independents (37/43) and only have a 46-42 lead among Hispanics.

I just cannot see Democrats retaining the House of Representatives if the lose Independents and winning Hispanics by only 4 Points. Just not happening.

Kentucky & Indiana have Statewide Races and close early. It will be interesting to see how Booker in KY does in the Cincinnati Suburbs (Kenton County, Boone County, Campbell County) and how McDermott will perform in the Donut Counties around Indianapolis.

Indiana could give us some clues how the Abortion Issue plays out. Indiana does have one of the most restrictive Abortion Laws.

I think if Democrats won by 1 or 2, it could possibly be very close.

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1571518227779579905

This is honestly one of the strangest developments of the cycle for me. It’s not like O’Halleran was pulling amazing numbers in past races, so I don’t understand what the NRCC is seeing in their internals.