2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Sir Mohamed]

Yahoo/YouGov: D+5 (45/40) among RV, D+3 (48/45) among those who "definitely will vote".

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-democrats-lead-republicans-among-those-who-say-theyll-definitely-vote-in-midterms-221434935.html

Interesting that the "enthusiasm gap" is now favoring Dems. In what was thought to be a red wave year.

The question is whether it holds or whether the GOP catches up. Dem enthusiasm is almost certainly going to hold though. Dobbs really had a larger impact than many - including myself - expected. It's just that we still have 2 months to go.

If these numbers holds into the 2nd half of October, I'd be increasingly optimistic that we might actually hold the House.

[wbrocks67]

Yahoo/YouGov: D+5 (45/40) among RV, D+3 (48/45) among those who "definitely will vote".

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-democrats-lead-republicans-among-those-who-say-theyll-definitely-vote-in-midterms-221434935.html

Interesting that the "enthusiasm gap" is now favoring Dems. In what was thought to be a red wave year.

The question is whether it holds or whether the GOP catches up. Dem enthusiasm is almost certainly going to hold though. Dobbs really had a larger impact than many - including myself - expected. It's just that we still have 2 months to go.

If these numbers holds into the 2nd half of October, I'd be increasingly optimistic that we might actually hold the House.

We really don't have 2 months to go though. States are going to start early voting in a matter of days/weeks. I don't still see the whole "GOP can still catch up" calculation. People have been saying that for two months now...

[Benjamin Frank]

Yahoo/YouGov: D+5 (45/40) among RV, D+3 (48/45) among those who "definitely will vote".

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-democrats-lead-republicans-among-those-who-say-theyll-definitely-vote-in-midterms-221434935.html

Interesting that the "enthusiasm gap" is now favoring Dems. In what was thought to be a red wave year.

The question is whether it holds or whether the GOP catches up. Dem enthusiasm is almost certainly going to hold though. Dobbs really had a larger impact than many - including myself - expected. It's just that we still have 2 months to go.

If these numbers holds into the 2nd half of October, I'd be increasingly optimistic that we might actually hold the House.

We really don't have 2 months to go though. States are going to start early voting in a matter of days/weeks. I don't still see the whole "GOP can still catch up" calculation. People have been saying that for two months now...

Most early voters vote Democratic though. Republicans need to work on the election day turnout.

[wbrocks67]

YouGov/Economist GCB at D+6, 44-38

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/jy7xuoa0xo/econtoplines.pdf

[Sir Mohamed]

Yahoo/YouGov: D+5 (45/40) among RV, D+3 (48/45) among those who "definitely will vote".

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-democrats-lead-republicans-among-those-who-say-theyll-definitely-vote-in-midterms-221434935.html

Interesting that the "enthusiasm gap" is now favoring Dems. In what was thought to be a red wave year.

The question is whether it holds or whether the GOP catches up. Dem enthusiasm is almost certainly going to hold though. Dobbs really had a larger impact than many - including myself - expected. It's just that we still have 2 months to go.

If these numbers holds into the 2nd half of October, I'd be increasingly optimistic that we might actually hold the House.

We really don't have 2 months to go though. States are going to start early voting in a matter of days/weeks. I don't still see the whole "GOP can still catch up" calculation. People have been saying that for two months now...

Most early voters vote Democratic though. Republicans need to work on the election day turnout.

Yup, this. The last 2 months were also different since Labor Day weekend is usually considered the (un)official begin of the campaign.

I'm just cautious because I don't want to get my hopes up and be disappointed again. I've just been fooled by the polls too often. Especially earlier polls.

[wbrocks67]

Yahoo/YouGov: D+5 (45/40) among RV, D+3 (48/45) among those who "definitely will vote".

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-democrats-lead-republicans-among-those-who-say-theyll-definitely-vote-in-midterms-221434935.html

Interesting that the "enthusiasm gap" is now favoring Dems. In what was thought to be a red wave year.

The question is whether it holds or whether the GOP catches up. Dem enthusiasm is almost certainly going to hold though. Dobbs really had a larger impact than many - including myself - expected. It's just that we still have 2 months to go.

If these numbers holds into the 2nd half of October, I'd be increasingly optimistic that we might actually hold the House.

We really don't have 2 months to go though. States are going to start early voting in a matter of days/weeks. I don't still see the whole "GOP can still catch up" calculation. People have been saying that for two months now...

Most early voters vote Democratic though. Republicans need to work on the election day turnout.

Yup, this. The last 2 months were also different since Labor Day weekend is usually considered the (un)official begin of the campaign.

I'm just cautious because I don't want to get my hopes up and be disappointed again. I've just been fooled by the polls too often. Especially earlier polls.

Maybe in the past, but this year I disagree. The Dobbs ruling changed everything. In this day and age, people are constantly tuned in and engaged, especially in the Trump era. I feel like the Labor Day thing is just an arbitrary mark at this point.

[Gracile]

New Crystal Ball rating changes:

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-sept-7-2022/

AK-AL: Safe Republican > Toss-up
MI-03: Toss-up > Leans Democratic
WA-08: Toss-up > Leans Democratic

[wbrocks67]

The basics are still bad for Democrats: President Joe Biden’s (D) approval rating, perhaps the best catch-all of the political environment, is still stuck in the low 40s, albeit after having improved from the 30s in polling averages a month and a half ago.

He's literally at 44% in the 538 RV/LV average, but sure okay

[Spectator]

The basics are still bad for Democrats: President Joe Biden’s (D) approval rating, perhaps the best catch-all of the political environment, is still stuck in the low 40s, albeit after having improved from the 30s in polling averages a month and a half ago.

He's literally at 44% in the 538 RV/LV average, but sure okay

Are we splitting hairs over calling 44% “low 40s” now? lol

[wbrocks67]

The basics are still bad for Democrats: President Joe Biden’s (D) approval rating, perhaps the best catch-all of the political environment, is still stuck in the low 40s, albeit after having improved from the 30s in polling averages a month and a half ago.

He's literally at 44% in the 538 RV/LV average, but sure okay

Are we splitting hairs over calling 44% “low 40s” now? lol

My point is that there is a big difference with being closer to 40 and being closer to 45. Biden's approvals are actually lining up with Obamas at this point so I just think the pundits still pulling the "Bidens approval is in the tank" is just factually wrong.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

New Crystal Ball rating changes:

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-sept-7-2022/

AK-AL: Safe Republican > Toss-up
MI-03: Toss-up > Leans Democratic
WA-08: Toss-up > Leans Democratic

Even I think these are reasonable. Mi 03 flips unless it's the worst GOP Tsunami in recent history which I think we can rule out. Also GOP voters really screwed up in WA 08. Dunn would have been favored for sure

[Brittain33]

YouGov/Economist GCB at D+6, 44-38

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/jy7xuoa0xo/econtoplines.pdf

This is a decline of 2 points for Dems, surprisingly.

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov/Economist GCB at D+6, 44-38

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/jy7xuoa0xo/econtoplines.pdf

This is a decline of 2 points for Dems, surprisingly.

Two weeks ago they were at D+5 and the week before that it was D+6.  Last week's D+8 appears to have been an outlier.

[Orser67]

YouGov/Economist GCB at D+6, 44-38

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/jy7xuoa0xo/econtoplines.pdf

It's interesting to me that the GCB is D+6, but in the two questions of "who do you want to win the "Senate/House?" it's D+2 and D+1. Assuming that "no preference" in those two questions correlates roughly to "not sure" and "I would not vote" in the GCB question, the biggest difference seems to be the 13% of voters who favor divided government, who presumably tend to favor Democrats in the GCB.

Could be a theme worth watching, since in general I would assume pro-divided government voters would tend to vote against the president's party in a mid-term. Another plausible read of this discrepancy is that Democrats have stronger candidates.

[wbrocks67]

YouGov/Economist GCB at D+6, 44-38

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/jy7xuoa0xo/econtoplines.pdf

It's interesting to me that the GCB is D+6, but in the two questions of "who do you want to win the "Senate/House?" it's D+2 and D+1. Assuming that "no preference" in those two questions correlates roughly to "not sure" and "I would not vote" in the GCB question, the biggest difference seems to be the 13% of voters who favor divided government, who presumably tend to favor Democrats in the GCB.

Could be a theme worth watching, since in general I would assume pro-divided government voters would tend to vote against the president's party in a mid-term. Another plausible read of this discrepancy is that Democrats have stronger candidates.

I also think it's interesting just in the sense that that many people still want divided government. I get that in theory you would think oh, it makes people work together. But in reality, we have seen that is not the case and divided government these days just equals less getting done entirely.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1567871569787064320

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1567867152056590337

[Brittain33]

Republicans up 3 in Marist since the last poll taken literally on Dobbs day

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Dems now leading 45.0-43.9 on the 538 average. Highest lead since mid-November 2021 in margin and highest percentage since October 3, 2021.

[windjammer]

I have checked and the polls for the Generic ballot in 2018 were very much correct

[wbrocks67]

I have checked and the polls for the Generic ballot in 2018 were very much correct

Yep, 538s final average pretty much nailed the final result

[Adam Griffin]

A follow-up to Rick Scott previously scamming people via text messages to unknowingly donate $25 in order to inflate their figures (so egregious that even the right-wing ActBlue equivalent shut it down):

GOP donor pool unexpectedly shrinks as midterms near

Online fundraising usually ramps up dramatically and predictably over the course of an election cycle. But campaign finance data show that in the first half of this year, the number of people giving federal contributions to Republican candidates and committees through WinRed — the GOP’s widely used donation processing platform — fell to around 913,000 down from roughly 956,000 contributors during the six months prior.

...

By contrast, the number of donors giving to Democrats through ActBlue, their preferred online donor platform, has increased over the course of the 2022 election cycle, from about 1.9 million who gave through ActBlue to federal committees in the last six months of 2021 to 2.5 million in the first half of 2022.

[libertpaulian]

Republicans up 3 in Marist since the last poll taken literally on Dobbs day

Seems more like they're herding cats on undecideds.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Republicans up 3 in Marist since the last poll taken literally on Dobbs day

Seems more like they're herding cats on undecideds.

The Dems were up 48-44. Hardly a bad poll, TBH.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not officially over but it's over at least in SEN since Rs are losing OH it's over no way Trump or DeSantis can win without either PA, WI or OH


I predict a Prez Ryan/Demings ticket 2028, 2028 won't be a redo of 2016 if we nail down OH it's over

Blks are donating to Ryan massively  online and females also for Demings, Crist and Beasley and Joe Cunningham and Barnes and Fetterman