2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

Imagine still taking Q pac seriously
And I would say that if they had R+10 too, they have weird GOP skewed polls occasionally too

Q-pac has been a mess this year, correct. But I will say that its trendline shows the same thing that almost everyone else is showing.

[Devils30]

It's time we take the chances of a Dem House seriously.

[GALeftist]

A D House is a lot like a Trump win in 2020. 538 has it at a 1 in 4 chance, but that's not zero; sometimes you flip a coin twice and get two heads. Not often enough where you'd guess it would happen in any individual case, sure, but not so infrequently that the possibility should be discounted either.

[Minnesota Mike]

A D House is a lot like a Trump win in 2020. 538 has it at a 1 in 4 chance, but that's not zero; sometimes you flip a coin twice and get two heads. Not often enough where you'd guess it would happen in any individual case, sure, but not so infrequently that the possibility should be discounted either.

Exactly. Right now I still think Republicans get between 218-230 seats in the House but Dems holding control wouldn't shock me.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Politico/Morning Consult steady at D+5 this week, 47-42

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/08/31061407/2208180_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v1_08-31-22_SH.pdf

Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues?

National Security: R+11
Inflation: R+10
Economy: R+10
Immigration: R+6
Jobs: R+4
Guns: D+5
Energy: D+6
Education: D+9
Voting rights: D+11
COVID: D+13
Healthcare: D+15
Medicare and SS: D+15
Environment: D+22
Climate change: D+25

It is insane that people trust Republicans more on national security after the Trump documents scandal. Jobs and the economy too, given the records of the past several Republican and Democratic presidents.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Politico/Morning Consult steady at D+5 this week, 47-42

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/08/31061407/2208180_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v1_08-31-22_SH.pdf

Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues?

National Security: R+11
Inflation: R+10
Economy: R+10
Immigration: R+6
Jobs: R+4
Guns: D+5
Energy: D+6
Education: D+9
Voting rights: D+11
COVID: D+13
Healthcare: D+15
Medicare and SS: D+15
Environment: D+22
Climate change: D+25

It is insane that people trust Republicans more on national security after the Trump documents scandal. Jobs and the economy too, given the records of the past several Republican and Democratic presidents.

The average American equates "national security" with "bombing foreigners" so I can believe it.

[President Johnson]

Politico/Morning Consult steady at D+5 this week, 47-42

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/08/31061407/2208180_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v1_08-31-22_SH.pdf

Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues?

National Security: R+11
Inflation: R+10
Economy: R+10
Immigration: R+6
Jobs: R+4
Guns: D+5
Energy: D+6
Education: D+9
Voting rights: D+11
COVID: D+13
Healthcare: D+15
Medicare and SS: D+15
Environment: D+22
Climate change: D+25

It is insane that people trust Republicans more on national security after the Trump documents scandal. Jobs and the economy too, given the records of the past several Republican and Democratic presidents.

Yeah, the only explanation to me at this point is that the Democrats need to get a lot smarter with their messaging on these issues.

As of for the economy, left-liberal parties always tend to do worse because people usually assign tax cuts and deregulation with a strong economy what benefits right of center parties. Such feelings and assumptions are often hard to beat even when facts tell otherwise.

[wbrocks67]

Trafalgar out with R+6 (47-41). Their last poll was R+5.

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1565139327201542145

[Devils30]

Trafalgar out with R+6 (47-41). Their last poll was R+5.

Alaska turnout was around 67% of 2018 and 55% of 2020. Yes, turnout patterns will change in the midterms but how much?

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/henryolsenEPPC/status/1564970235157004289

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/henryolsenEPPC/status/1564970235157004289

Uh, who do you think all those new Independents are? 

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/henryolsenEPPC/status/1564970235157004289

I know, I just thought it was funny that so many tonight are RT'ing it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/democratic-midterm-prospects-improve-as-races-heat-up-wsj-poll-finds-11662024601

Wall Street Journal D's have the lead on GCB 47/44 now

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1565079763584180225?t=9_6C_4qQcCUa1KYi7X-CBw&s=19

QU POLL IDENTICAL

[wbrocks67]

New WSJ poll from Fabrizio/Impact has GCB at D+3, 47-44.

They had R+5 last time they polled in March.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/democratic-midterm-prospects-improve-as-races-heat-up-wsj-poll-finds-11662024601

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1565327523638120451

[wbrocks67]

Glad they're realizing that much hyped Yesli Vega is now a flop candidate.

[Devils30]

Glad they're realizing that much hyped Yesli Vega is now a flop candidate.

They should start more moves like PA-7, VA-2, NJ-7 to tossup.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is no R wave this is the same Biden that helped Obama win Red states in 2008/2012

Biden is winning 50/44 over Trump this EDay is over we're gonna sweep at the worse it's gonna be a 2012 EDay lose the H but have wave insurance Sen seats so we don't lose Sen in 24 Lol THOMAS McDermott is completetive now.

He was the best person nominated but if we nominated someone other than Hillary Bernie or O'Malley we wouldn't have lost to Trump

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

New WSJ poll from Fabrizio/Impact has GCB at D+3, 47-44.

They had R+5 last time they polled in March.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/democratic-midterm-prospects-improve-as-races-heat-up-wsj-poll-finds-11662024601

Poll says voters side with Democrats over Republicans 47-28% on abortion.

[S019]

Glad they're realizing that much hyped Yesli Vega is now a flop candidate.

They should start more moves like PA-7, VA-2, NJ-7 to tossup.

Kean and Kiggans will probably still win, but I agree those districts are more like a tossup. It’s just hard to see Kean being a sizable favorite in a Biden+5 seat when Republicans are losing Trump+10 or Biden+1 seats.

[wbrocks67]

Glad they're realizing that much hyped Yesli Vega is now a flop candidate.

They should start more moves like PA-7, VA-2, NJ-7 to tossup.

Kean and Kiggans will probably still win, but I agree those districts are more like a tossup. It’s just hard to see Kean being a sizable favorite in a Biden+5 seat when Republicans are losing Trump+10 or Biden+1 seats.

Eh, I think Luria will still pull it out. Luria has much more $, and has a lot more visibility now due to the 1/6 panel. Kiggans seems like another hyped candidate like Vega that hasn't really borne out as much as people said they would.

[S019]

Glad they're realizing that much hyped Yesli Vega is now a flop candidate.

They should start more moves like PA-7, VA-2, NJ-7 to tossup.

Kean and Kiggans will probably still win, but I agree those districts are more like a tossup. It’s just hard to see Kean being a sizable favorite in a Biden+5 seat when Republicans are losing Trump+10 or Biden+1 seats.

Eh, I think Luria will still pull it out. Luria has much more $, and has a lot more visibility now due to the 1/6 panel. Kiggans seems like another hyped candidate like Vega that hasn't really borne out as much as people said they would.

Only thing that gives me pause is that district has a huge military vote which probably turned on Biden after Afghanistan and it saw insane swings toward Youngkin in the 2021 Gov race, combine all of this with Biden’s margin already being narrow though, and it’s clear that it’ll be pretty tough to hold.

[Devils30]

Glad they're realizing that much hyped Yesli Vega is now a flop candidate.

They should start more moves like PA-7, VA-2, NJ-7 to tossup.

Kean and Kiggans will probably still win, but I agree those districts are more like a tossup. It’s just hard to see Kean being a sizable favorite in a Biden+5 seat when Republicans are losing Trump+10 or Biden+1 seats.

Eh, I think Luria will still pull it out. Luria has much more $, and has a lot more visibility now due to the 1/6 panel. Kiggans seems like another hyped candidate like Vega that hasn't really borne out as much as people said they would.

A lot are saying Kean (and Steel, others for that matter) because they outran the top of the ticket in 2020. But was 1/6 and Dobbs the final straw for these ancestral R voters? Judging by the special elections in Lincoln, Rochester and NY-19, the answer might just be yes. The Dem in MN-1 outran Tina Smith by 8% and Biden by 6% in Olmsted. NJ-7 is 51% college and this group is VERY angry. Not to mention Malinowski already represents all of Kean's state senate seat so he isn't flying in with no name recognition.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Glad they're realizing that much hyped Yesli Vega is now a flop candidate.

They should start more moves like PA-7, VA-2, NJ-7 to tossup.

Kean and Kiggans will probably still win, but I agree those districts are more like a tossup. It’s just hard to see Kean being a sizable favorite in a Biden+5 seat when Republicans are losing Trump+10 or Biden+1 seats.

Eh, I think Luria will still pull it out. Luria has much more $, and has a lot more visibility now due to the 1/6 panel. Kiggans seems like another hyped candidate like Vega that hasn't really borne out as much as people said they would.

A lot are saying Kean (and Steel, others for that matter) because they outran the top of the ticket in 2020. But was 1/6 and Dobbs the final straw for these ancestral R voters? Judging by the special elections in Lincoln, Rochester and NY-19, the answer might just be yes. The Dem in MN-1 outran Tina Smith by 8% and Biden by 6% in Olmsted. NJ-7 is 51% college and this group is VERY angry. Not to mention Malinowski already represents all of Kean's state senate seat so he isn't flying in with no name recognition.

Steele I think is a special case of her running against a white opponent in 2020 allowing her to do very well with the Asian vote, specifically in Garden Grove (which also saw a heavy swing to Trump). A least Dems will be running an Asian candidate against her in 2022, so it'll be interesting if she still does well with the Asian vote and also if Trump's performance in the new district was somewhat of a fluke (Clinton + 13 --> Biden + 5, almost entirely due to heavily Vietnamese Garden Grove area).