2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Oh boy, the Republicans really are going to fumble away this "red wave" year, aren't they? But go ahead and continue to cling to Donald Trump.

What's so incredibly hilarious about that is Republicans apparently not realizing Trump already lost them the House, Senate and White House in a matter of four years. The last president with this noble accomplishment is Herbert Hoover.

Just try to imagine Republicans clinging to him in 1934 or Democrats embracing Carter in 1982. Yes, these lost by much bigger margins, but the era of landslides is over due to polarization. Trump still got his a-- kicked out by over seven million votes.

The Republicans could conceivably regain the House. I am less confident the Democrats can hold that. But it appears the Senate will stay with the Democrats, and they could even expand their margin.

Either way, it was looking like a wave year until GOP primary voters began voting lock step for Trump endorsed loony toons that are not palatable to general election voters.

But you're right. Typically, parties move on from losing candidates. McCain/Romney did not control the GOP after their election losses. Hillary did not remain in control of the Democrats. Yet here we see Republicans doubling down on their losing candidate in Trump.

[wesmoorenerd]

Inside Elections further cementing itself as the weakest of the three prognosticators by a wide margin. Honestly, as bad as Cook and Sabato can be sometimes, IE is light years behind the curve.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Early voting is gonna start in exactly 4 weeks I just make a wave isurance map we all saw what happened in AK and NY 19 Approvals are debunk from state state polls because Fetterman is leading 43/30 if Biden was so low Oz would be leading by 5 and he isn't and Vance would be leading by 1w

In 2014 Landrieu and Pryor were all down 8 pts it's not a typical midterms

.Crist and Ryan can easily win with Early vote by mail banked in before Nov 8th it just won't be counted until EDay wat h FL Sen and Govs, NC Sen and OH En are gonna say too Early and too close to call just like 2012 and Rs can still win the H and FL and OH go D just like in 2012

[Holmes]

Will we have the final results of the Alaska special on the 30th or 31st?

[Lief 🗽]

Those Inside Elections changes are bizarre. They almost seem random.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I just don't want to make an R nut make a mistake and I Donated to Tim Ryan less than yrs past but still donate

Watch Crist win because DeSantis underpolled in 2018

[GeorgiaModerate]

Will we have the final results of the Alaska special on the 30th or 31st?

31st, I believe.

[NOVA Green]

So don't believe the "fundraising" section of the math has been brought up recently...

Politico just posted this earlier today (Non-Paywall link below):

Senate Democrats are coming off a summertime high, clinching legislation on everything from climate to gun safety as their candidates outpolled and outraised Republicans in key battlegrounds. Now comes the post-Labor Day GOP surge.

The Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC aligned with Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, is set to narrow the financial disparities currently holding his party back in its bid to retake the Senate. The super PAC has more than $160 million in advertising on the books for the post-Labor Day crunch, according to AdImpact — just the beginning of a cash blitz that’s poised to blunt the financial edge that Democratic candidates have enjoyed for 18 months.

It’s a repeat in the making of 2020, when the GOP PAC notched blockbuster fundraising down the stretch and rained down ads on Senate Democratic candidates that helped avert a complete Republican collapse, though the chamber still narrowly flipped. And Democrats expect this year’s polls to tighten enough to make every race a nail-biter.


“These are all going to be dogfights for the final couple months,” said former Democratic Senate Campaign Committee adviser Justin Barasky. “Republican money is coming. We always knew it was going to, because it always does. Doesn’t mean it’s easy to deal with, but it’s not unexpected.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/25/senate-dems-brace-for-a-red-wave-of-cash-00053799

Meanwhile an editorial in the Washington Post from today (Very brief summary from a much longer OP-ED:

You’ve probably heard that Republicans are dissembling madly about new tax policies in the law President Biden signed this month. The Inflation Reduction Act will boost IRS funding to better target wealthy tax avoiders, and Republicans are pretending this will unleash an army of tens of thousands of IRS agents exclusively on working- and middle-class taxpayers.

That’s par for the course. But now, a billionaire GOP donor has reportedly been caught on a recording advising Republicans to amplify distortions exactly like this.

Politico obtained audio of a conference call that Republican National Committee chairwoman Ronna McDaniel held with top GOP donors, telling them their help is badly needed to win the Senate.

McDaniel advised the donors that Democrats are swamping Republicans in money, because GOP fundraising is flat with small donors. Hence big donors must step up and bail out GOP candidates by giving directly to their campaigns, McDaniel told them.

But buried in the Politico story is another revelation.

Specifically, Politico reports, during the question-and-answer session, billionaire GOP donor Steve Wynn asked whether there are additional ways for very well-heeled donors to give anonymously. Wynn also urged Republicans to crank up the messaging that Democratic tax policies will primarily hammer working-class people, per Politico:

The billionaire also offered up some messaging advice. Republican candidates, he said, should run aggressive TV ads casting Democrats as advocates of tax policies that would hurt lower-wage earners and small businesses.

“Hard-hitting kind of spots with a man’s voice, no soft pedal,” Wynn suggested, before giving a sample script: “‘They’re coming after you if you’re a waiter, if you’re a bartender, if you’re anybody with a cash business … they’re coming after you.’”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/08/25/rnc-conference-call-steve-wynn/

Thoughts Atlas Hive???

[wbrocks67]

Emerson GCB, R+1, 45-44

same as July

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1563227519381565440

[Sestak]

Those Inside Elections changes are bizarre. They almost seem random.

MN-02 shifting to the right after the MN-01 special seems especially absurd to me.

[Devils30]

Emerson GCB, R+1, 45-44

same as July

The D+5 should be taken seriously if the R+1 are. NY-19 was 3 points more R than Biden's popular vote in 2020 and 3 points more R than the 8% Dem win in 2018. Ryan +2.4 now....which would equate to D+5.

[wbrocks67]

McLaughlin even has the GCB race tied, 45-45.

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1563269735512387585?s=21&t=C-ope1YoDdc0l7obe6NwEA

[Lief 🗽]

Wow! From the Gold Standard Big Village poll too!
https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1563330993963933698?s=21&t=FOvwB5Z...

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Wow! From the Gold Standard Big Village poll too!
https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1563330993963933698?s=21&t=FOvwB5Z...

The combination of Dobbs backlash, dropping gas prices, and breaking through the stagnation to make significant public policy changes that help people in clear and tangible ways seems to be having a major effect.

Keep it up.

[philly09]

Wow! From the Gold Standard Big Village poll too!
https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1563330993963933698?s=21&t=FOvwB5Z...

Overall, it's this.

GCB: D 44(+3) R36(-1)  Adults: D 43.6% R 35.7%  RV; D 48.3%, R 40.8%

[Woody]

Those years Democrats were coming in to election night with huge expectations, poll numbers showing them winning safe red states (Biden winning/close to winning Ohio and Iowa) some even exceeding the 50% mark, money, momentum, supposed help from SCOTUS related issues, etc..

Really, what difference is it this time around?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol, we are replicating the blue wall thatthe Rs haven't cracked since 2016 didn't Rs assume they were gonna get a 245 RH and 54 RS they were the ones that were complacent not Ds

Whom had the most nut maps on this D forum Rs fis not D's

[Spectator]

There’s a difference between complacency and polls being off. Biden was not complacent in 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are gonna be early voting at the end of Sept anyways we saw in AK and NY 19 despite Biden Approvals which can be lies, they often are lies that we exceeded the VBM totals of Rs like we always do that's why R state legislature out in Voter suppression laws they were worried about VBM so in 4 weeks poll aren't gonna matter especially in blue states where there are no Voter Suppression laws

Some think we are all gonna be voting on EDay no it's not Oct 1/31 st is early vote

Approvals when Early vote aren't gonna even matter anyways because we're all gonna be voting

The Rs haven't offered anything since 1994 they're not offering TL that was their strongest suit since 2010 they have been running on Gerrymandering the difference between 2010 and now is Boehner and Gingrich certified Clinton in 1996 and Obama 2012 they're not insurrection

[windjammer]

Those years Democrats were coming in to election night with huge expectations, poll numbers showing them winning safe red states (Biden winning/close to winning Ohio and Iowa) some even exceeding the 50% mark, money, momentum, supposed help from SCOTUS related issues, etc..

Really, what difference is it this time around?

The difference is that the special elections are pointing to an environnement that isn't going to be unfavoravle to the dems so we have datas to feel more optimistic than last year

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I think so.  Things are looking up for them, but they're still facing the headwinds of the economy and historical precedence. 

[Podgy the Bear]

I don't think so.  Here in GA, they are pounding away against Herschel Walker--and rightfully so--because despite his obvious flaws and deficiencies, Walker is going to generate a lot of support. 

And I see the same in PA with Fetterman against Oz.  Despite his big lead, the Fetterman campaign is not letting up.

The Dobbs case is hurting the Republicans--bringing out single issue voters (namely, young women) who are voting Democratic.

Democrats need to keep the eyes on the prize--hold the Senate at all costs and minimize the losses in the House. 

[wbrocks67]

CBS/YouGov's battleground tracker is updated. With a new poll, their outlook has gone from Rs leading 230-205 seats to 226-209

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1563896693359247361

[Devils30]

CBS/YouGov's battleground tracker is updated. With a new poll, their outlook has gone from Rs leading 230-205 seats to 226-209

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1563896693359247361

The poll also has a ton of conservatives, few moderates, Dems winning independents but a GOP gain. The red flags for GOP are beginning to show, we should take the idea of Dems retaining the majority seriously.