2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Lief 🗽]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1562412514293473280

I checked 538 to see what the conventional wisdom on these things is... they have Ryan as a narrow underdog in NY-18 (a Biden +8 district!!) and Molinaro with nearly a 70% chance of winning in NY-19.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1562412514293473280

I checked 538 to see what the conventional wisdom on these things is... they have Ryan as a narrow underdog in NY-18 (a Biden +8 district!!) and Molinaro with nearly a 70% chance of winning in NY-19.

538 thinks they’re smarter than they are

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1562412514293473280

I checked 538 to see what the conventional wisdom on these things is... they have Ryan as a narrow underdog in NY-18 (a Biden +8 district!!) and Molinaro with nearly a 70% chance of winning in NY-19.

I think 538 is trapped by needing polls to change, so absent polls they are behind the curve. The plus model has a bit more than polls but polls are the most important. The idea is to dress it all up as objective when much of this stuff is not amenable to that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1562412514293473280

I checked 538 to see what the conventional wisdom on these things is... they have Ryan as a narrow underdog in NY-18 (a Biden +8 district!!) and Molinaro with nearly a 70% chance of winning in NY-19.

I think 538 is trapped by needing polls to change, so absent polls they are behind the curve. The plus model has a bit more than polls but polls are the most important. The idea is to dress it all up as objective when much of this stuff is not amenable to that.

I suspect that 538 was also assuming that Molinaro would win last night's special, which would have made him and not Ryan an incumbent in November.  Kondik in a later tweet said that was a factor in his ratings change; he also teased that there's at least one more ratings change coming later this morning.

[wbrocks67]

YouGov/Economist has GCB at D+5 this week, 44-39. Relatively unchanged, was 45-39 last week.

YouGov/Yahoo finds GCB at D+6 this week, 45-39
https://www.scribd.com/document/588832466/20220822-Yahoo-Tabs-Biden-Economy

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

YouGov/Economist has GCB at D+5 this week, 44-39. Relatively unchanged, was 45-39 last week.

YouGov/Yahoo finds GCB at D+6 this week, 45-39
https://www.scribd.com/document/588832466/20220822-Yahoo-Tabs-Biden-Economy

Dang. That feels like keeping the House territory.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

YouGov/Economist has GCB at D+5 this week, 44-39. Relatively unchanged, was 45-39 last week.

YouGov/Yahoo finds GCB at D+6 this week, 45-39
https://www.scribd.com/document/588832466/20220822-Yahoo-Tabs-Biden-Economy

Dang. That feels like keeping the House territory.

It's a range from 235/210RH and 50/56DS we could get 55D S and 218/217RH which still be good because we will have wave insurance for 24 in the S and win 12 seats back in the H that's why on the news they Say OH, NC, FL, PA WI instead of H because of 24, Secular Trifecta

Cook says D's need to focus on wave insurance for the Sen instead of the H in MTP because of 24

[Devils30]

YouGov/Economist has GCB at D+5 this week, 44-39. Relatively unchanged, was 45-39 last week.

YouGov/Yahoo finds GCB at D+6 this week, 45-39
https://www.scribd.com/document/588832466/20220822-Yahoo-Tabs-Biden-Economy

Last night was  D+6 type of result FWIW.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Don't be surprised on EDay like EDay 2012 they say Rs control the House of Representatives and they say NC, OH and FL Sen and FL, GA , KS and AZ Gov are too close to call I expect that's what is going to happen.

But numerical majority doesn't mean 235 it means 218 we can get anywhere between 235(210RH majority just like D's already bailed out of IA and MO Sen and concentrate on OH, NC and FL, WI, PA, AZ, GA and NV, NH

[OneJ]

https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1562475059574235138

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[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1562475059574235138
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Interesting.  Based on some of the hints Elliott has been dropping on Twitter, I was assuming their model was going to be quite bearish on D chances.  Apparently I assumed poorly.

[OneJ]

https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1562475059574235138
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Interesting.  Based on some of the hints Elliott has been dropping on Twitter, I was assuming their model was going to be quite bearish on D chances.  Apparently I assumed poorly.

I was also thinking it’d be bearish for the same reasons as well. It’s gonna be interesting when we can compare with FiveThirtyEight’s. Also, I should probably post this on the models mega thread as well.

[Person Man]

This could really be a 2002 situation.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1562475059574235138
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Interesting.  Based on some of the hints Elliott has been dropping on Twitter, I was assuming their model was going to be quite bearish on D chances.  Apparently I assumed poorly.

Still a pretty important caveat here that he's saying the *special election results* are consistent with Dems being about 50/50 chances of keeping the House, not necessarily that that is what the model is showing *in general*

That being said, it's a sign that gives some hope.

[President Johnson]

https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1562475059574235138

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51.3% would be pretty ironic. That's exactly the vote share Biden got in 2020. Actually slightly more than the House popular vote was. In 2008, Obama got slightly less than House Democrats.

[Person Man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1562475059574235138

!

51.3% would be pretty ironic. That's exactly the vote share Biden got in 2020. Actually slightly more than the House popular vote was. In 2008, Obama got slightly less than House Democrats.

If the GCB is 2%, I can see a situation where very few seats actually trade hands.

[philly09]

Morning Consult/POLITICO has GCB at D+5, 47-42. Up 1 from last week (46-42)

I believe D+5 is the highest it's been in quite some time.

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/08/23145441/2208119_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2_08-24-22_SH.pdf

And the Democrats have somewhat narrowed the gap with rural voters, it's R+9 now, ditto for White people. Hispanics are almost above 60% again.

[wbrocks67]

Echelon (R) has RV at D+8, 50-42, and LV at D+4, 48-44

https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/august-omnibus-update-2022/

NewsNation has R+3, 45-42

https://www.newsnationnow.com/polls/poll-voters-on-trump-fbi-search-student-debt-forgiveness/



For every D+4-6 we get, there's a R+3-5, so I imagine that's truly indicative that we're at a = environment

[Roll Roons]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1562871178305212420?cxt=HHwWiMC...

[wbrocks67]

Calvert's seat is confusing... Rs only outvoted Ds 53-46 in the primary.

[wbrocks67]

Cygnal (R) is out with a minor D lead in GCB

D 47.2%
R 46.5%

Their last poll was R+1 in mid-July

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1562852819325317121/photo/1

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Cygnal (R) is out with a minor D lead in GCB

D 47.2%
R 46.5%

Their last poll was R+1 in mid-July

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1562852819325317121/photo/1

More evidence of a concrete shift in the national picture.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Oh boy, the Republicans really are going to fumble away this "red wave" year, aren't they? But go ahead and continue to cling to Donald Trump.

[President Johnson]

Oh boy, the Republicans really are going to fumble away this "red wave" year, aren't they? But go ahead and continue to cling to Donald Trump.

What's so incredibly hilarious about that is Republicans apparently not realizing Trump already lost them the House, Senate and White House in a matter of four years. The last president with this noble accomplishment is Herbert Hoover.

Just try to imagine Republicans clinging to him in 1934 or Democrats embracing Carter in 1982. Yes, these lost by much bigger margins, but the era of landslides is over due to polarization. Trump still got his a-- kicked out by over seven million votes.

[Devils30]

Calvert's seat is confusing... Rs only outvoted Ds 53-46 in the primary.

I don't know what inside elections is smoking.

NE-2 is rightfully a tossup, 50%+ college NJ-7 should be as well.

MN-2, NH-1, NY-18 should all be lean Dem and probably even CA-27