2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[UncleSam]

Definitely a bump for Dems with the abortion ruling. Question is how sustained the bump will be.

Four months used to be a very short time in politics. Now it’s like 25 news cycles.

[SnowLabrador]

Although the horrendous effects of this decision will be lasting, the public outrage will not be. The ruling itself will likely be forgotten in a few weeks, and then they'll start talking about gas prices again.

[libertpaulian]

Although the horrendous effects of this decision will be lasting, the public outrage will not be. The ruling itself will likely be forgotten in a few weeks, and then they'll start talking about gas prices again.

This could very likely be like the ACA repeal where the outrage is sustained.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Although the horrendous effects of this decision will be lasting, the public outrage will not be. The ruling itself will likely be forgotten in a few weeks, and then they'll start talking about gas prices again.

This could very likely be like the ACA repeal where the outrage is sustained.

Yes, and the ruling won't be forgotten because there will continue to be women unable to get abortions in red states, along with developments such as additional states either banning abortions or expliclity legalizing them.  I have no doubt that there will be plenty of stories to keep this all fresh in the news.

[Unelectable Bystander]

I’ll believe it if we get a bunch of legitimate polls (CNN, Fox, Emerson, Cygnal, maybe even Suffolk/Quinn)  consistently showing the same thing. Marist and Morning Consult are the two worst pollsters, not to mention these articles are so biased they sound like straight up propaganda.

One issue I see right away is that if you multiply the Marist  opposition in each party ID by the 2020 party ID’s (37, 36, 26), you only get about 53.5% opposing instead of 56%. That shows Dems are quite oversampled

[JohnCA246]

So the polls are saying "we have a chance?"

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

So the polls are saying "we have a chance?"

No, they are saying SnowLabrador might be off by 50 house seats instead of 70. So the Dems are above 200 at the end of the day. The Senate is still very much up in the air.

[JohnCA246]

So you're saying we have a chance?

[GeorgiaModerate]

So you're saying we have a chance?

Yes.  Republicans are still favored to take House control, but it would no longer be a huge upset if the Democrats held on to a tiny majority.  It would have been one prior to Roe being overturned.

[wbrocks67]

Yahoo/YouGov now has D+7, double from their last poll

But perhaps most importantly, the new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that 45% of registered voters now say they would vote for a Democrat for Congress if the election were held today, versus 38% who say they would vote for a Republican — a 7-point gap that has nearly doubled since last month. And when explicitly asked to choose between a “pro-choice” Democrat (47%) and a “pro-life” Republican (32%), that same gap actually doubles again, to 15 points.

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-confidence-in-supreme-court-collapses-as-just-33-agree-with-decision-to-overturn-roe-v-wade-090021689.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs are in trouble now, we don't hear the same usuals sayings Rs plus 7 but we were leading anyways before Dobbs this no doubt helps even moreso

Whenever things trend down you never hear from Matty Rs plus 7 on Fox POLL, Now It's D's plus 7 HA

It's still a ways to go before the Election Labor Day we should know

[Unelectable Bystander]

Yahoo/YouGov now has D+7, double from their last poll

But perhaps most importantly, the new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that 45% of registered voters now say they would vote for a Democrat for Congress if the election were held today, versus 38% who say they would vote for a Republican — a 7-point gap that has nearly doubled since last month. And when explicitly asked to choose between a “pro-choice” Democrat (47%) and a “pro-life” Republican (32%), that same gap actually doubles again, to 15 points.

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-confidence-in-supreme-court-collapses-as-just-33-agree-with-decision-to-overturn-roe-v-wade-090021689.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr

Sorry but you are very gullible if you think there’s any chance of a D+7 vote this year and a D+15 vote in any year

[wbrocks67]

Yahoo/YouGov now has D+7, double from their last poll

But perhaps most importantly, the new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that 45% of registered voters now say they would vote for a Democrat for Congress if the election were held today, versus 38% who say they would vote for a Republican — a 7-point gap that has nearly doubled since last month. And when explicitly asked to choose between a “pro-choice” Democrat (47%) and a “pro-life” Republican (32%), that same gap actually doubles again, to 15 points.

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-confidence-in-supreme-court-collapses-as-just-33-agree-with-decision-to-overturn-roe-v-wade-090021689.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr

Sorry but you are very gullible if you think there’s any chance of a D+7 vote this year and a D+15 vote in any year

the way people on this forum just miss the point...

[Unelectable Bystander]

Yahoo/YouGov now has D+7, double from their last poll

But perhaps most importantly, the new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that 45% of registered voters now say they would vote for a Democrat for Congress if the election were held today, versus 38% who say they would vote for a Republican — a 7-point gap that has nearly doubled since last month. And when explicitly asked to choose between a “pro-choice” Democrat (47%) and a “pro-life” Republican (32%), that same gap actually doubles again, to 15 points.

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-confidence-in-supreme-court-collapses-as-just-33-agree-with-decision-to-overturn-roe-v-wade-090021689.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr

Sorry but you are very gullible if you think there’s any chance of a D+7 vote this year and a D+15 vote in any year

the way people on this forum just miss the point...

I got the point and I agree that the popular vote could have gone from R+6 to R+2, the same shift they are implying. I was more questioning  why you would post such a laughable poll with no commentary or analysis unless you actually work for the DNC

[wbrocks67]

Yahoo/YouGov now has D+7, double from their last poll

But perhaps most importantly, the new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that 45% of registered voters now say they would vote for a Democrat for Congress if the election were held today, versus 38% who say they would vote for a Republican — a 7-point gap that has nearly doubled since last month. And when explicitly asked to choose between a “pro-choice” Democrat (47%) and a “pro-life” Republican (32%), that same gap actually doubles again, to 15 points.

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-confidence-in-supreme-court-collapses-as-just-33-agree-with-decision-to-overturn-roe-v-wade-090021689.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr

Sorry but you are very gullible if you think there’s any chance of a D+7 vote this year and a D+15 vote in any year

the way people on this forum just miss the point...

I got the point and I agree that the popular vote could have gone from R+6 to R+2, the same shift they are implying. I was more questioning  why you would post such a laughable poll with no commentary or analysis unless you actually work for the DNC

Because this is the Generic ballot poll thread and this is a new generic ballot poll. Are you dense? I'm sorry that the result is not to your liking, oh well.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Yahoo/YouGov now has D+7, double from their last poll

But perhaps most importantly, the new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that 45% of registered voters now say they would vote for a Democrat for Congress if the election were held today, versus 38% who say they would vote for a Republican — a 7-point gap that has nearly doubled since last month. And when explicitly asked to choose between a “pro-choice” Democrat (47%) and a “pro-life” Republican (32%), that same gap actually doubles again, to 15 points.

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-confidence-in-supreme-court-collapses-as-just-33-agree-with-decision-to-overturn-roe-v-wade-090021689.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr

Sorry but you are very gullible if you think there’s any chance of a D+7 vote this year and a D+15 vote in any year

the way people on this forum just miss the point...

I got the point and I agree that the popular vote could have gone from R+6 to R+2, the same shift they are implying. I was more questioning  why you would post such a laughable poll with no commentary or analysis unless you actually work for the DNC

Because this is the Generic ballot poll thread and this is a new generic ballot poll. Are you dense? I'm sorry that the result is not to your liking, oh well.

Let me rephrase. Post all the hack polls you want, but I think you should at least occasionally accompany them with some kind of commentary (other than the implied “Blue wave incoming!”). Everybody here knows that a pro-life R would never lose by 15 points to a pro-choice D, so it’s a waste of time unless there’s a new point to be made. The point of the forum is for quality discussion, not convincing us all that we’re always in a blue wave.

[wbrocks67]

Yahoo/YouGov now has D+7, double from their last poll

But perhaps most importantly, the new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that 45% of registered voters now say they would vote for a Democrat for Congress if the election were held today, versus 38% who say they would vote for a Republican — a 7-point gap that has nearly doubled since last month. And when explicitly asked to choose between a “pro-choice” Democrat (47%) and a “pro-life” Republican (32%), that same gap actually doubles again, to 15 points.

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-confidence-in-supreme-court-collapses-as-just-33-agree-with-decision-to-overturn-roe-v-wade-090021689.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr

Sorry but you are very gullible if you think there’s any chance of a D+7 vote this year and a D+15 vote in any year

the way people on this forum just miss the point...

I got the point and I agree that the popular vote could have gone from R+6 to R+2, the same shift they are implying. I was more questioning  why you would post such a laughable poll with no commentary or analysis unless you actually work for the DNC

Because this is the Generic ballot poll thread and this is a new generic ballot poll. Are you dense? I'm sorry that the result is not to your liking, oh well.

Let me rephrase. Post all the hack polls you want, but I think you should at least occasionally accompany them with some kind of commentary (other than the implied “Blue wave incoming!”). Everybody here knows that a pro-life R would never lose by 15 points to a pro-choice D, so it’s a waste of time unless there’s a new point to be made. The point of the forum is for quality discussion, not convincing us all that we’re always in a blue wave.

Again, I have no idea what you're talking about. This thread is for POLLS. This was a new poll, from YouGov, not a hack outlet, so I posted it here. Please don't police what I should or shouldn't post in here. Again, just because you don't like what the poll is showing doesn't mean you need to lash out.

[ajc0918]

Another poll showing a Dem bump post-Roe. Their last poll here was D+4 so this is a movement of 3 points which is similar to what other polls have shown.

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1541810356187693056?s=20&t=u9tyjbw...

[UncleSam]

Another poll showing a Dem bump post-Roe. Their last poll here was D+4 so this is a movement of 3 points which is similar to what other polls have shown.

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1541810356187693056?s=20&t=u9tyjbw...

What was their prior result (not margin, but actual numbers)? Curious as to whether Dems are gaining support or Rs are losing it (or a combination).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Definitely a bump for Dems with the abortion ruling. Question is how sustained the bump will be.

Four months used to be a very short time in politics. Now it’s like 25 news cycles.

Of course what'll keep it in the news is whenever a conservative state bans abortion.

[RI]

Another poll showing a Dem bump post-Roe. Their last poll here was D+4 so this is a movement of 3 points which is similar to what other polls have shown.

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1541810356187693056?s=20&t=u9tyjbw...

What was their prior result (not margin, but actual numbers)? Curious as to whether Dems are gaining support or Rs are losing it (or a combination).

I believe 43-39 is what's being referenced.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Honestly, it’ll still be a red year, but the Dems could seriously blunt the impact if they keep abortion in the news… red states are already doing that for them.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think people don't know who to defy blue wave it's a 303 map but OH, FL and NC are wave insurañce for a D H as well as TX in a D plus 7 environment that's a blue wave but of course Traggy have Rs plus 9 49/40

Rs underperform in 2018 and 2019 Trump wasn't on the Ballot and these states have significant minorities along with Females voted it's VBM anyways they're not gonna count all the ballots ASAP anyways



Users this as soon as they count ballot like it's not VBM they all gonna go R didn't Rs learn from last time that didn't happen, Red Mirage, rural vote come in first and urban vote come in last, GEEZE

[UncleSam]

Another poll showing a Dem bump post-Roe. Their last poll here was D+4 so this is a movement of 3 points which is similar to what other polls have shown.

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1541810356187693056?s=20&t=u9tyjbw...

What was their prior result (not margin, but actual numbers)? Curious as to whether Dems are gaining support or Rs are losing it (or a combination).

I believe 43-39 is what's being referenced.

Got it, so good news for Dems that their support is actually increasing (rather than just GOP support falling).

[JohnCA246]

I'm thinking we have a chance.