2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1481342334633533440?t=FnEImskpB2SKvmIN...

7 point improvement on GCB for Dems.

Biden's approval is 33% in the same poll.. the undecideds will dramatically lean R.

not necessarily. the reason his overall approval is 33% is things like a <30% approval among 18-34 years olds, who are not voting R.

These people are not voting at all, which may as well be the same thing as voting R. They didn’t show up for Obama’s midterms, they surely won’t show up when Biden fails to deliver any of the bizarre things he promised them.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/thejeremyhunt/status/1481608878848684032?t=6pd-EYCFTyKk0-im9...

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/CatieEdmondson/status/1482029647068082176?s=20

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/CatieEdmondson/status/1482029647068082176?s=20

23-3 Hochulmander incoming...

[😥]

https://twitter.com/LPDonovan/status/1483475071297593349?t=B2n_2y7PcLvNxNOtBXaQD...

[ElectionsGuy]

Nobody has posted this whopper yet?

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/TRF-Generic-Ballot-0119-Poll-Report.pdf

R+13.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Nobody has posted this whopper yet?

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/TRF-Generic-Ballot-0119-Poll-Report.pdf

R+13.

Lol so for the “just cuz it doesn’t match your narrative doesn’t mean it’s junk” crowd, does that apply here too or is that statement only true for YouGov polls?

[SnowLabrador]

Sadly, I'm not that surprised.

[MT Treasurer]

Nobody has posted this whopper yet?

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/TRF-Generic-Ballot-0119-Poll-Report.pdf

R+13.

Lol so for the “just cuz it doesn’t match your narrative doesn’t mean it’s junk” crowd, does that apply here too or is that statement only true for YouGov polls?

At a time when the incumbent President's approval spread stands at a lousy -15 in the polling average and he isn’t able to get out of the low-40s even in the 'reputable' polls and the D-support % in the GCB polls basically tracks the Biden-Approve % (with Republicans underperforming the Biden-Disapprove % only because of an unusually large number of 'undecideds'), I wonder which poll will be far closer to the truth - GOP +13 or D+4?

At this time four years ago, everyone and their mother was spamming this forum, Twitter, etc. with blue wave emojis/posts, even when Trump's/Republicans' numbers were slightly less catastrophic than Democrats' right now.

[Senator Incitatus]

R +13 is probably neither the final result nor the actual current temperature, but double-digits are not out of the question.

[Pericles]

Damn the wipeout will be brutal if Republicans get the same PV margin as 2018 Democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Damn the wipeout will be brutal if Republicans get the same PV margin as 2018 Democrats.

Rs aren't 13 on CGB

You haven't seen IPSOS POLLS ITS 45/50?THIS WEEK AND IT WAS 49/48 last week and it was 52/48 3 wks ago, it's 10 mnths before the Election Biden isn't at 52/48 but he won 50)45 he will be 50/48 where he needs to be in IPSOS on Nov 2nd 2022, it's 3.0 unemployment with Blk Latino and female turnout


Users think Biden has to be at 58 Approvals to get a 303 map, CALM DOWN

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sadly, I'm not that surprised.

You're not very optimistic

[Matty]

Would Katie Porter Survive an R+13 margin?

[Mr.Phips]

Damn the wipeout will be brutal if Republicans get the same PV margin as 2018 Democrats.

I’d hope Biden would be forced to resign at anything worse than R+40 in the House.  You would be getting to the point where Democrats were just a minor party.

Democrats haven’t had that few seats in nearly 100 years.

[Pericles]

Damn the wipeout will be brutal if Republicans get the same PV margin as 2018 Democrats.

I’d hope Biden would be forced to resign at anything worse than R+40 in the House.  You would be getting to the point where Democrats were just a minor party.

Democrats haven’t had that few seats in nearly 100 years.

No and he could get re-elected even if it's a wave, that's usually happens. Trump didn't have to resign for the 2018 wave and he could have won 2020 for sure. Plus, Kamala Harris would clearly be a weaker candidate.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/philarballo/status/1484301310643949574?s=21

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Traggy is so messed up no, it's like QU having Biden up 15 pts when Unemployment was declining from 9 to 7.5 percent, now they have Rs up 14 in a 3 percent unemployment Economy

Lol IPSOS has had Biden Approvals mostly at 49/48 not 43/64 he's not at 50/48 but he will be in 10 mnths

[ElectionsGuy]

Would Katie Porter Survive an R+13 margin?

She could lose in an R+5 year.

I don't expect R+13 to actually happen, but yes she'd get defeated easily with that.

[Senator Incitatus]

Would Katie Porter Survive an R+13 margin?

Almost definitely not; if she did, she would be relying on a level of personal appeal that I don't think is possible (1) for her personally, (2) in her district, which has a large percentage of transient voters, or (3) for any candidate in a redistricting cycle.

With that said, I expect that GCB polling will overstate Republican gains given recent trends, i.e., a gain of 15 or 16 points nationwide (as in this poll) would point to a much smaller swing in Porter's district. On that basis, I think she'd be losing by a solid 3 or 4 points.

[Minnesota Mike]

FOX Poll GCB:

Republican- 44%
Democrat- 43%


https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2022/01/Fox_January-16-19-2022_Complete_National_Topline_January-23-Release.pdf

Last Fox poll was R+4 so a slight Dem improvement. Makes a lot more sense IMO than the Trafalgar and Rasmussen garbage we have seen recently. Republicans may very will win the House and the GCB but I don't think it will be the epic wipeout many here are assuming.

[progressive85]

Something tells me that even if the generic ballot is not a huge margin for Reds many of the marginal seats will be decided in those last 2 weeks and flip Red.  (Those seats of course become top Blue pickup opportunities in 2024.)

Will Democrats turn out is the question? Will they rally around the Party of Sinemansion that has not delivered for them, or will the idea of the pending impeachment of Joe Biden by Mitch + Kevin cause them to turn out in the end?

[BoiseBoy]

Republican State Sen. Jessica de la Cruz is running for RI-02.

https://twitter.com/kathyprojo/status/1485392712081752073

[Roll Roons]

Marie Newman under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for possibly bribing a primary opponent to stay out: https://www.businessinsider.com/marie-newman-bribe-primary-opponent-office-congressional-ethics-2022-1

An Illinois Democrat being corrupt? I've never heard of such a thing! 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Marie Newman under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for possibly bribing a primary opponent to stay out: https://www.businessinsider.com/marie-newman-bribe-primary-opponent-office-congressional-ethics-2022-1

An Illinois Democrat being corrupt? I've never heard of such a thing! 

I'm not one to hold grudges - generally. But I'm hoping this capsizes Newman's career. Deep down, anyway.