2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1470502160718872585?s=20

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1470420377750982661
Harry Enten states the obvious (not for many Dems, though), but still nice to have them all in a single article.

• Generic Congressional Ballot
• Presidential Approval
• Special Elections and Virginia
• House Retirements

All the signs (right now) point towards red wave.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1468289128529899527?s=20

As much as the generic ballot has gotten better for Republicans in the last few months, these numbers are still underestimating R's. Like it's pretty telling that 57% disapprove in this poll yet only 44% are going Republican. There is a point in the electorate where no matter how low Biden's approval goes a certain percentage will just vote Democratic anyway, however, that kind of separation (44-57, vs the 41-41) is telling me that those are people who don't necessarily like R's but they will vote for them and they're hesitant to say so. We didn't see this kind of thing in 2017, it was blue wave territory immediately.

WSJ: Portrait of hte undecided voters.

[wbrocks67]

These "undecided" and "independent" voters always lean Republican. It's always been like that, at least in the last 5-6 years.

[SnowLabrador]

I wouldn't be surprised if midterm penalties for the presidential party increase as polarization does. That's probably why 2022 looks like 2010 on steroids.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/voters-think-biden-making-inflation-worse

[wbrocks67]

I honestly think 2022 is going to make 1994 and 2010 look like raindrops in a puddle.  There is no sugar-coating this for Team Blue: this is going to be a tsunami on a large scale, so prepare for the most right-wing House in history.

Grandpa should not be renominated in 2024.  He is a "woke" old man that is always asleep.  No need to wake him up - he'll sleep through the 2024 election anyway.

I just want to fast forward to the second Trump midterm of 2026, when Democrats finally have their Ultimate Villain back in power.

There's going to be less competitive seats than in 2010 or 2018 so I don't think there's going to be enough seats to lose to compare to to those years.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/voters-think-biden-making-inflation-worse

It's 300 days til Election

[Hollywood]

I somewhat agree with the analysis in this podcast.  The pollsters gauging the generic ballot show an enormous lead for Republicans on a national level.  A +4-6 Republican advantage would be devastating.   
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CSxaxDcJdlA

[South Dakota Democrat]

I wouldn't be surprised if midterm penalties for the presidential party increase as polarization does. That's probably why 2022 looks like 2010 on steroids.

This is nonsensical, since polarization would mean the electorate is less swingy.

[SnowLabrador]

I wouldn't be surprised if midterm penalties for the presidential party increase as polarization does. That's probably why 2022 looks like 2010 on steroids.

This is nonsensical, since polarization would mean the electorate is less swingy.

Polarization is driven by increased hatred of the party we oppose, not increased love for our own party. I hate the Democratic Party, but I have to vote for it.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I wouldn't be surprised if midterm penalties for the presidential party increase as polarization does. That's probably why 2022 looks like 2010 on steroids.

This is nonsensical, since polarization would mean the electorate is less swingy.

Polarization is driven by increased hatred of the party we oppose, not increased love for our own party. I hate the Democratic Party, but I have to vote for it.

Right, but that would presumably work on both sides.

I'm not saying 2022 will be good, I'm just disagreeing with the notion that polarization means it will be worse than 2010.  There are far fewer competitive seats than in 2010.  If it does end up being that bad, it has more to do with low approval ratings of Biden/turnout differentials than polarization.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I wouldn't be surprised if midterm penalties for the presidential party increase as polarization does. That's probably why 2022 looks like 2010 on steroids.

This is nonsensical, since polarization would mean the electorate is less swingy.

Most of the things SL says is nonsensical.

[Hollywood]

I wouldn't be surprised if midterm penalties for the presidential party increase as polarization does. That's probably why 2022 looks like 2010 on steroids.

This is nonsensical, since polarization would mean the electorate is less swingy.

Polarization is driven by increased hatred of the party we oppose, not increased love for our own party. I hate the Democratic Party, but I have to vote for it.

Right, but that would presumably work on both sides.

I'm not saying 2022 will be good, I'm just disagreeing with the notion that polarization means it will be worse than 2010.  There are far fewer competitive seats than in 2010.  If it does end up being that bad, it has more to do with low approval ratings of Biden/turnout differentials than polarization.

The Democrats plan to run on insurrection, and prosecuting Donald Trump.  Democrats still have ongoing lawsuit in blue states in hopes that their fishing expeditions will hook Orange Orca.  It's like Democrats are begging Trump to make a comeback. 

The Republicans plan to run on attacking Biden's mishandling of every situation, as well as controversial local issues.  They're gonna run on Democrat Crime of which there seems to be no limit.  If Democrats had like photos and documents on Trump that they could personally witness like some of the things I've seen on Democrats, Trump and his sons would be in federal prison right now. Just on the Hunter Biden E-Mails.  There is no better evidence of a crime and a bribery conspiracy. 

2010 was not even close to being this polarized.  That was about like Healthcare.  Democrats tried to make it about race cause the move is to trump up charges of racism. That's been the move since 2010. 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1472578830351179777
 

[2016]

So, Marist has finally come to their senses and have Republicans now up 5 on the Generic Ballot.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wouldn't be surprised if midterm penalties for the presidential party increase as polarization does. That's probably why 2022 looks like 2010 on steroids.

This is nonsensical, since polarization would mean the electorate is less swingy.

Most of the things SL says is nonsensical.

It does look like a 2010 midterm

[lfromnj]

https://www.oc-breeze.com/2021/12/20/206947_harley-rouda-releases-statement-on-ca-redistricting-commission-final-congressional-line-drawing/

Rouda seems dumb enough to primary porter.

[Gracile]

New Cook ratings for the CA seats-

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1473316697545359377

[Brittain33]

If the tweeted map on the latest page of the NJ redistricting thread is accurate, we need to be on watch for a Chris Smith retirement.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=366451.0

[Roll Roons]

If the tweeted map on the latest page of the NJ redistricting thread is accurate, we need to be on watch for a Chris Smith retirement.

That account has 17 followers and was just created this month. So I highly doubt it's accurate.

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1473409361569411072
lol Rashida will probably/hopefully crush him but he's bound to make the race entertaining if he makes ads like he did when he ran for governor.

[Brittain33]

If the tweeted map on the latest page of the NJ redistricting thread is accurate, we need to be on watch for a Chris Smith retirement.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=366451.0

The new map is different, however it still draws Chris Smith's home out of the 4th. Curious if he retires.

[Roll Roons]

If the tweeted map on the latest page of the NJ redistricting thread is accurate, we need to be on watch for a Chris Smith retirement.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=366451.0

The new map is different, however it still draws Chris Smith's home out of the 4th. Curious if he retires.

Nope: https://newjerseyglobe.com/redistricing/chris-smith-will-run-in-4th-district/

Let's be honest. He's been in office for over four decades but he remains very active and he's not even 70. He'll almost certainly become Dean of the House and I think it's even possible that he breaks Dingell's record one day.

[Senator Incitatus]

NJ map is a major loss for the Republican Party and people who like competitive elections. Probably should have seen this coming when Rabner appointed the man Christie screwed off of the Supreme Court.

Haven't actually seen the Republican map to compare it so I'll hold off on saying the process was blatantly rigged; early indication to me is that they pushed for too much.