2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1468289128529899527?s=20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna be hard for RS to maintain this lead all the way til Nov, they can but it will be difficult

[2016]

It's gonna be hard for RS to maintain this lead all the way til Nov, they can but it will be difficult

As long as Biden is underwater Republicans will maintain a lead in the GCB although the Generic Ballot isn't indicative. It's more important what happens with Bidens JA.

Another bad withdrawal from the Ukraine like with Afghanistan and Bidens Approval may sit in the low 30ties.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have 2016 and S019 this Red wave won't last until Nov 22

[2016]

I have 2016 and S019 this Red wave won't last until Nov 22

For the Upteeth Time Republicans DO NOT NEED a Red Wave like 2010. It would be nice to have it but they don't need it.

2018 Exit Poll

Trump JA 45 % / Republican House Vote 45 %

2014 Exit Poll

Obama JA 44 % / Democrat House Vote 44 %

2010 Exit Poll

Obama JA 45 % / Democrat House Vote 45 %

You see the Trend. Democrats Chances in the House are TIED to Bidens JA!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

RS can get excited all they want about pos there is still 338 days til the Election and they just folded on the Debt Ceiling which paves the way to BBB, BBB is gonna pass after RS preached to us they won't lift Debt Ceiling on a 5T dollar bill

[2016]

RS can get excited all they want about pos there is still 338 days til the Election and they just folded on the Debt Ceiling which paves the way to BBB, BBB is gonna pass after RS preached to us they won't lift Debt Ceiling on a 5T dollar bill

Depth Ceiling hasn't passed the Senate! It only passed the House!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously, again, it's not time to vote yet, we have 336 days til the Election, in 2018/ we didn't win 40H seats in 2017/ we won them in 2018

I feel very good about Biden getting to 50% the Rs just caved on Debt Ceiling, BBB is gonna pass as soon as Manchin agrees to it, after Rs cried about how it explodes the Debt now, they are gonna give D's 60 votes to Raise the Debt Ceiling without getting any concessions

2016/ forgotten whom won 80M votes D's did, it's called RALLY AROUND THE FLAG

ITS NOT AN R OR D WAVE UNTIL ALL THE VOTES ARE CASTED

I AM ENDORSING Warnock ABRAMS, RYAN, DEMINGS AND BETO, OBVIOUSLY, McCrory, DeWine, DESANTIS and Perdue can win

Split voting we won in very Red KY with Andy Beshear

[Coolface’s actual roommate]

HUGE Endorsement for Max Rose!!!

https://twitter.com/DWStweets/status/1467911102109519876

He will be the dem nominee in 2028. Guaranteed.

[sting in the rafters]

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/o8u558c9sy/econTabReport.pdf

YouGov/Econ Weekly Tracking GCB:

Dems 42 (+/- 0)
Reps 39 (+2)


The Iowa/Wisconsin rule applies unless you're really scratching your head about whom those 10% undecided non-college whites could possibly be voting for.

[2016]

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/o8u558c9sy/econTabReport.pdf

YouGov/Econ Weekly Tracking GCB:

Dems 42 (+/- 0)
Reps 39 (+2)


The Iowa/Wisconsin rule applies unless you're really scratching your head about whom those 10% undecided non-college whites could possibly be voting for.

Excatly what I've said, Democrats at 42 % and Bidens JA stands at 42 % as well. Democrats being at 42 % is VERY, VERY BAD because the rest of the Vote almost always goes to the challenging Party.

Same applies to the Politico/Morning Consult where Biden is at 45 % and Democrats are at 44 %.

Even if Biden JA rebounds to about 47-48 % by E-DAY 2022 GOP will still take the House because they only need 5 Seats.

[BigSerg]

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/o8u558c9sy/econTabReport.pdf

YouGov/Econ Weekly Tracking GCB:

Dems 42 (+/- 0)
Reps 39 (+2)


The Iowa/Wisconsin rule applies unless you're really scratching your head about whom those 10% undecided non-college whites could possibly be voting for.

Very Bad, D +9% sample

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1468631804588412928?t=6fGWHsAE2gJ3f1PA... ..

[2016]

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/o8u558c9sy/econTabReport.pdf

YouGov/Econ Weekly Tracking GCB:

Dems 42 (+/- 0)
Reps 39 (+2)


The Iowa/Wisconsin rule applies unless you're really scratching your head about whom those 10% undecided non-college whites could possibly be voting for.

Very Bad, D +9% sample

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1468631804588412928?t=6fGWHsAE2gJ3f1PA... ..

That's hilarious! We will not a 2018 D+9 Midterm Electorate!

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Donald_McEachin/status/1468726400781799428

[CookieDamage]

https://twitter.com/Donald_McEachin/status/1468726400781799428

Ok wig

[ElectionsGuy]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1468289128529899527?s=20

As much as the generic ballot has gotten better for Republicans in the last few months, these numbers are still underestimating R's. Like it's pretty telling that 57% disapprove in this poll yet only 44% are going Republican. There is a point in the electorate where no matter how low Biden's approval goes a certain percentage will just vote Democratic anyway, however, that kind of separation (44-57, vs the 41-41) is telling me that those are people who don't necessarily like R's but they will vote for them and they're hesitant to say so. We didn't see this kind of thing in 2017, it was blue wave territory immediately.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1468289128529899527?s=20

As much as the generic ballot has gotten better for Republicans in the last few months, these numbers are still underestimating R's. Like it's pretty telling that 57% disapprove in this poll yet only 44% are going Republican. There is a point in the electorate where no matter how low Biden's approval goes a certain percentage will just vote Democratic anyway, however, that kind of separation (44-57, vs the 41-41) is telling me that those are people who don't necessarily like R's but they will vote for them and they're hesitant to say so. We didn't see this kind of thing in 2017, it was blue wave territory immediately.

What you are saying here makes me think that there is indeed a sizable "Shy Trump/Republican Vote" out there. Most of these Undecideds are Non-College WWC I think.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1468289128529899527?s=20

As much as the generic ballot has gotten better for Republicans in the last few months, these numbers are still underestimating R's. Like it's pretty telling that 57% disapprove in this poll yet only 44% are going Republican. There is a point in the electorate where no matter how low Biden's approval goes a certain percentage will just vote Democratic anyway, however, that kind of separation (44-57, vs the 41-41) is telling me that those are people who don't necessarily like R's but they will vote for them and they're hesitant to say so. We didn't see this kind of thing in 2017, it was blue wave territory immediately.

45% is probably the Dem floor in the House popular vote.  That’s about what they got in 2010/2014.  Likely ends up around 53%-46%.   

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1468986740618797070

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1469304606069035012?t=-KEh5mi0wtTKI1nd8P...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/10/public-view-on-bidens-handling-of-covid-and-the-economy-takes-another-hit-cnbc-survey-shows.html

(B+)-rated CNBC/Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies


R 44 (+3 since October)
D 34 (-9)

Outlier, but LOL.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1469325366586220550

Lol

[progressive85]

I honestly think 2022 is going to make 1994 and 2010 look like raindrops in a puddle.  There is no sugar-coating this for Team Blue: this is going to be a tsunami on a large scale, so prepare for the most right-wing House in history.

Grandpa should not be renominated in 2024.  He is a "woke" old man that is always asleep.  No need to wake him up - he'll sleep through the 2024 election anyway.

I just want to fast forward to the second Trump midterm of 2026, when Democrats finally have their Ultimate Villain back in power.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IPSOS just contradicted those 41/50 polls and Rs aren't plus 10 on GCB Biden is at 48/48 not 41/50

These media polls are beginning to look like the reverse of 2020/ where they had Trump at 41/50 and Trump was close to 48/ where Ds we're supposed to get a 413 map

[xavier110]

I honestly think 2022 is going to make 1994 and 2010 look like raindrops in a puddle.  There is no sugar-coating this for Team Blue: this is going to be a tsunami on a large scale, so prepare for the most right-wing House in history.

Grandpa should not be renominated in 2024.  He is a "woke" old man that is always asleep.  No need to wake him up - he'll sleep through the 2024 election anyway.

I just want to fast forward to the second Trump midterm of 2026, when Democrats finally have their Ultimate Villain back in power.

Well, at that point, the state legislatures may have rewritten election laws to ban most elections, lol. They’ll just pick all of our federal officials.