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Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #875 on: November 23, 2021, 08:38:06 PM »

If Quinnipiac is finding R+8, we're in for a shellacking worse than 2010.

Democrats are basically a non party below the Presidency.

Both ridiculous takes.
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MRS DONNA SHALALA
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« Reply #876 on: November 24, 2021, 08:36:18 AM »
« Edited: November 24, 2021, 08:40:05 AM by Harris/Shalala 2024 »



Same poll has -7 for Biden's Approval (43-50)
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #877 on: November 24, 2021, 08:46:24 AM »

It seems Marist, unlike Quinnipiac, wants to continue embarrassing themselves.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #878 on: November 24, 2021, 11:36:38 AM »

It seems Marist, unlike Quinnipiac, wants to continue embarrassing themselves.
While Marist has always been D-leaning and I don’t really ‘trust’ this poll, it’s crazy to throw out a poll from a reputable pollster. Maybe Ds are just seeing some regression back towards the mean (as literally always happens) and simultaneously this sample is a bit D-friendly.

The tendency of this forum to dismiss polls that’s don’t align with their preconceptions rather than try to understand them is pretty silly.
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2016
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« Reply #879 on: November 24, 2021, 11:42:46 AM »

It seems Marist, unlike Quinnipiac, wants to continue embarrassing themselves.
Hilarious indeed! No way Dems leading on the Generic Ballot!
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #880 on: November 24, 2021, 07:50:54 PM »

We’re basically at the point where even a series of Republican recruitment failures, flawed Republican campaigns, and very aggressive Democratic redistricting decisions/gerrymanders would result in a 54R-46D Senate as well as a healthy GOP majority in the House. This one increasingly looks like it’s set in stone.

At this point it seems trifectas only last two years and the party in power is punished for winning the presidency. This is not sustainable going forward.

It’s been sustainable for decades. It wouldn’t be a major problem if the two-year window of governance witnessed good/impactful governance.

In the Clinton and Obama trifecta's you had lots of conservative and moderate Southern Democrats  stopping any big progressive legislation. Those ex Democratic areas are now almost entirely Republican, which also makes the ability to do anything with narrow majorities impossible.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #881 on: November 25, 2021, 07:05:04 AM »

It seems Marist, unlike Quinnipiac, wants to continue embarrassing themselves.
While Marist has always been D-leaning and I don’t really ‘trust’ this poll, it’s crazy to throw out a poll from a reputable pollster. Maybe Ds are just seeing some regression back towards the mean (as literally always happens) and simultaneously this sample is a bit D-friendly.

The tendency of this forum to dismiss polls that’s don’t align with their preconceptions rather than try to understand them is pretty silly.

Ah yes, the "reputable" Marist poll. Let's go back, shall we.

NBC/Marist

US: Biden +11 (D+7)
AZ: Tie (0)
FL: Biden +4 (D+7)
MI: Biden +8 (D+5)
NC: Biden +6 (D+7)
PA: Biden +5 (D+4)
WI: Biden +10 (D+9)

Average Error: 5.3
Average Partisan Error: D+5.3
538 Grade: A+

Nate Silver's favorite pollster for a long time.

That doesn't include their bullseyes in 2018, which included McCaskill +3 for MO Senate, Evers +10 for WI governor, Sinema +6 for AZ Senate, Blackburn +5 for TN Senate (Bredesen +2 in August, btw), among others, in a year where most people here believed the polls were accurate, proving that 2016 was a fluke for polling, and that 2020 polls would be mostly accurate.

More importantly, we just had elections a few weeks ago, where Biden's approval was -8 at the time of the election in both 538 and RCP's averages, and Democrats lost Virginia and narrowly won New Jersey, with incumbent and former incumbent Dem governors running and conservative "Trumplican" Republican candidates. Averaging the swings from 2020 in both states would suggest around R+8 for the country. D+5 is 13 points away from that, way outside any reasonable polling error, or any reasonable explanation for why Republican governor candidates would do so much better. Let's remember 2020 for the House was D+3. This poll is claiming Dems have a roughly equivalent or slightly larger lead today, right now, with Biden's approval being roughly the same as November 2nd, 2021. And, it would be one thing for a poll to claim a narrow Dem lead with lots of undecideds, say 42% to 40%. But for this poll to claim 46% would vote Dem already, with 13% undecided, says a lot of things in my mind about the poll, but none of which are that the poll is accurate.

If we had polls claiming R's leading in 2018, everyone here would be laughing them off. And they should've been laughed off, because we knew that was nowhere near reality based on multiple indicators. People should do the same here even if they want to believe it.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #882 on: November 25, 2021, 10:57:26 AM »

It seems Marist, unlike Quinnipiac, wants to continue embarrassing themselves.
While Marist has always been D-leaning and I don’t really ‘trust’ this poll, it’s crazy to throw out a poll from a reputable pollster. Maybe Ds are just seeing some regression back towards the mean (as literally always happens) and simultaneously this sample is a bit D-friendly.

The tendency of this forum to dismiss polls that’s don’t align with their preconceptions rather than try to understand them is pretty silly.

Ah yes, the "reputable" Marist poll. Let's go back, shall we.

NBC/Marist

US: Biden +11 (D+7)
AZ: Tie (0)
FL: Biden +4 (D+7)
MI: Biden +8 (D+5)
NC: Biden +6 (D+7)
PA: Biden +5 (D+4)
WI: Biden +10 (D+9)

Average Error: 5.3
Average Partisan Error: D+5.3
538 Grade: A+

Nate Silver's favorite pollster for a long time.

That doesn't include their bullseyes in 2018, which included McCaskill +3 for MO Senate, Evers +10 for WI governor, Sinema +6 for AZ Senate, Blackburn +5 for TN Senate (Bredesen +2 in August, btw), among others, in a year where most people here believed the polls were accurate, proving that 2016 was a fluke for polling, and that 2020 polls would be mostly accurate.

More importantly, we just had elections a few weeks ago, where Biden's approval was -8 at the time of the election in both 538 and RCP's averages, and Democrats lost Virginia and narrowly won New Jersey, with incumbent and former incumbent Dem governors running and conservative "Trumplican" Republican candidates. Averaging the swings from 2020 in both states would suggest around R+8 for the country. D+5 is 13 points away from that, way outside any reasonable polling error, or any reasonable explanation for why Republican governor candidates would do so much better. Let's remember 2020 for the House was D+3. This poll is claiming Dems have a roughly equivalent or slightly larger lead today, right now, with Biden's approval being roughly the same as November 2nd, 2021. And, it would be one thing for a poll to claim a narrow Dem lead with lots of undecideds, say 42% to 40%. But for this poll to claim 46% would vote Dem already, with 13% undecided, says a lot of things in my mind about the poll, but none of which are that the poll is accurate.

If we had polls claiming R's leading in 2018, everyone here would be laughing them off. And they should've been laughed off, because we knew that was nowhere near reality based on multiple indicators. People should do the same here even if they want to believe it.
Sure, Marist has a history of D bias. But it’s still a professional pollster with published methodology, and so the results are useful even if maybe we should tilt things a few points right in our heads from where they say the race is.

It’s useful to put in the average against R bias pollsters to cancel them out, and it’s useful to know that there’s been some reversion to the mean since Rs swept the 2021 elections. That’s all I’m saying.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #883 on: November 25, 2021, 11:13:03 AM »
« Edited: November 25, 2021, 11:27:38 AM by Mr. MANDELA BARNES »

There isn't much difference than where we left off from 2020, if the Election were held today the EC map would be the same 304


We have wave insurance STS but that's only when and only when Biden Approvals hoaver around 50 percent


That's why when Rs talk about Landslided and 60 it's not factual because do you honestly believe that Rs are gonna have 54 sts, they only won 53 in 2014 and 2018 due to red wall STS we lost MO, IN, ND in 2018 and LA, AK and AR those are double digits red states

We didn't lose PA, OH, NC, TX or WI which STS are still in play.


The only red wall state is safe and D's aren't betting on is FL Beto, Ryan and Beshear have boyish looks for Female voters just like DeSantis

Don't think Females don't vote for make candidate based on looks Jon Ossoff is relatively boyishly
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #884 on: November 25, 2021, 01:09:59 PM »

There isn't much difference than where we left off from 2020, if the Election were held today the EC map would be the same 304


We have wave insurance STS but that's only when and only when Biden Approvals hoaver around 50 percent


That's why when Rs talk about Landslided and 60 it's not factual because do you honestly believe that Rs are gonna have 54 sts, they only won 53 in 2014 and 2018 due to red wall STS we lost MO, IN, ND in 2018 and LA, AK and AR those are double digits red states

We didn't lose PA, OH, NC, TX or WI which STS are still in play.


The only red wall state is safe and D's aren't betting on is FL Beto, Ryan and Beshear have boyish looks for Female voters just like DeSantis

Don't think Females don't vote for make candidate based on looks Jon Ossoff is relatively boyishly
Olowakandi,
You are just talking massive NONSENSE over and over again.

# 1 Biden will not reach 50 % JA in his 1st Term again!

# 2 Biden is in a much more worse place compared to his former boss Obama.

# 3 According to the 2009 Virginia Exit Polls Obama had a 48/51 Job Approval Rating in the State compared to Bidens 46/53 YET Republican Bob McDonnell beat Democrat Creigh Deeds by Double Digits

2009 VA Exits
https://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2009/images/11/04/2009.exit.polls.-.va.gov.pdf
PARTY ID: D 33 / I 30 / R 37

2021 VA Exits
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2021/november/exit-polls/virginia/governor/0
PARTY ID: D 36 / I 30 / R 34

Obama also was inspiring. Biden is an old 80 year-old uninspiring sleepy figure.

VA tells us that 2022 will be a R-WAVE. It's unlikely R's get 63 House Seats like in 2010 but they don't need to. They will get between 20-30 though!
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #885 on: November 25, 2021, 01:19:08 PM »

There isn't much difference than where we left off from 2020, if the Election were held today the EC map would be the same 304


We have wave insurance STS but that's only when and only when Biden Approvals hoaver around 50 percent


That's why when Rs talk about Landslided and 60 it's not factual because do you honestly believe that Rs are gonna have 54 sts, they only won 53 in 2014 and 2018 due to red wall STS we lost MO, IN, ND in 2018 and LA, AK and AR those are double digits red states

We didn't lose PA, OH, NC, TX or WI which STS are still in play.


The only red wall state is safe and D's aren't betting on is FL Beto, Ryan and Beshear have boyish looks for Female voters just like DeSantis

Don't think Females don't vote for make candidate based on looks Jon Ossoff is relatively boyishly
Olowakandi,
You are just talking massive NONSENSE over and over again.

# 1 Biden will not reach 50 % JA in his 1st Term again!

# 2 Biden is in a much more worse place compared to his former boss Obama.

# 3 According to the 2009 Virginia Exit Polls Obama had a 48/51 Job Approval Rating in the State compared to Bidens 46/53 YET Republican Bob McDonnell beat Democrat Creigh Deeds by Double Digits

2009 VA Exits
https://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2009/images/11/04/2009.exit.polls.-.va.gov.pdf
PARTY ID: D 33 / I 30 / R 37

2021 VA Exits
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2021/november/exit-polls/virginia/governor/0
PARTY ID: D 36 / I 30 / R 34

Obama also was inspiring. Biden is an old 80 year-old uninspiring sleepy figure.

VA tells us that 2022 will be a R-WAVE. It's unlikely R's get 63 House Seats like in 2010 but they don't need to. They will get between 20-30 though!

Marquette poll has Biden up 8 we won the NPVI In2020 80M votes whom is the Majority party DS, lol the RS haven't won the NPVi since 2014 you're the on e thinking the RS are the Majority and Trump didn't win the PVI either in both Election, I told this to you slready

2016 DS NPVI 65/62
2020 80M to 74M

DS are the Majority not Ra


Biden and Obama won 50 percent of the vote Trump 48 and Bush W 48 in 2004 of course he had Rove 51 percent
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #886 on: November 25, 2021, 01:23:49 PM »

The Election is in a yr it's not a White man election it's a blk brown and Female election that's why we have beaten you guys in almost every Prez election since 1992
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2016
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #887 on: November 25, 2021, 03:00:51 PM »

There isn't much difference than where we left off from 2020, if the Election were held today the EC map would be the same 304


We have wave insurance STS but that's only when and only when Biden Approvals hoaver around 50 percent


That's why when Rs talk about Landslided and 60 it's not factual because do you honestly believe that Rs are gonna have 54 sts, they only won 53 in 2014 and 2018 due to red wall STS we lost MO, IN, ND in 2018 and LA, AK and AR those are double digits red states

We didn't lose PA, OH, NC, TX or WI which STS are still in play.


The only red wall state is safe and D's aren't betting on is FL Beto, Ryan and Beshear have boyish looks for Female voters just like DeSantis

Don't think Females don't vote for make candidate based on looks Jon Ossoff is relatively boyishly
Olowakandi,
You are just talking massive NONSENSE over and over again.

# 1 Biden will not reach 50 % JA in his 1st Term again!

# 2 Biden is in a much more worse place compared to his former boss Obama.

# 3 According to the 2009 Virginia Exit Polls Obama had a 48/51 Job Approval Rating in the State compared to Bidens 46/53 YET Republican Bob McDonnell beat Democrat Creigh Deeds by Double Digits

2009 VA Exits
https://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2009/images/11/04/2009.exit.polls.-.va.gov.pdf
PARTY ID: D 33 / I 30 / R 37

2021 VA Exits
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2021/november/exit-polls/virginia/governor/0
PARTY ID: D 36 / I 30 / R 34

Obama also was inspiring. Biden is an old 80 year-old uninspiring sleepy figure.

VA tells us that 2022 will be a R-WAVE. It's unlikely R's get 63 House Seats like in 2010 but they don't need to. They will get between 20-30 though!

Marquette poll has Biden up 8 we won the NPVI In2020 80M votes whom is the Majority party DS, lol the RS haven't won the NPVi since 2014 you're the on e thinking the RS are the Majority and Trump didn't win the PVI either in both Election, I told this to you slready

2016 DS NPVI 65/62
2020 80M to 74M

DS are the Majority not Ra


Biden and Obama won 50 percent of the vote Trump 48 and Bush W 48 in 2004 of course he had Rove 51 percent
Who cares what the Marquette Poll says!
Every single Poll that came out since the Afghanistan withrawal has Biden down among Independents.

Youngkin beat McAuliffe 54-45 among Indies.

Biden doesn't have a winning coalition. 51 % who voted for Biden in said that their vote was against Trump. That isn't a winning coaltion when you pull from Voters who said they hate the other guy.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #888 on: November 30, 2021, 10:35:54 PM »

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #889 on: December 01, 2021, 09:25:29 AM »

Just remember Biden only has to get to 50)45 I'm a Neutral Environment to duplicate the 304 map but by Aug 22 we would definitely know how the Environment will be the D's put slot of infersis on BBB/BINF
For now it's a 304 map, Biden 46/51 is level pegging with 50/45

It's a Neutral Environment not a red or blue wave but a potential to be a blue wave

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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #890 on: December 01, 2021, 12:50:43 PM »

Bad news.


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Canis
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« Reply #891 on: December 01, 2021, 12:55:51 PM »

Bad news.



The new district is pretty much Safe D so I wouldn't worry about it too much
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Suburbia
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« Reply #892 on: December 01, 2021, 12:58:33 PM »

Skarlatos will probably win.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #893 on: December 01, 2021, 01:00:24 PM »

Bad news.


The new district is pretty much Safe D so I wouldn't worry about it too much


It's bad because DeFazio is progressive, competent and well-placed to thrive in a seniority-based system. He's not exactly a unicorn, but that combination makes him pretty close to one for the Democratic House caucus.
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Canis
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« Reply #894 on: December 02, 2021, 12:29:51 PM »

Progressive dem David Kim who came just 12k votes short from unseating Jimmy Gomez last year is in for a rematch
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andjey
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« Reply #895 on: December 03, 2021, 02:01:20 PM »

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Pollster
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« Reply #896 on: December 06, 2021, 09:22:39 AM »

Two big ones:



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KaiserDave
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« Reply #897 on: December 06, 2021, 09:41:55 AM »

Max running again is a big surprise
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #898 on: December 06, 2021, 11:39:14 AM »

Max Rose is a likely shoe-in then for the new NY-11, right?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #899 on: December 06, 2021, 11:45:00 AM »
« Edited: December 06, 2021, 11:51:31 AM by lfromnj »

Max Rose is a likely shoe-in then for the new NY-11, right?

Depends on Machine politics. I doubt in any Staten island split but they have to likely dump a lot of super progressive west Brooklyn voters no one else really wants until you reach AOC who is a bit too far away.

450k of the district will be staten Island but the dem primary turnout will probably only be like 35% staten Island due to both the fact that Staten Island Ds should be lower turnout minorities and fewer of them exist tha. The percentage of the district.


IIRC the map the dems on the commision put out is what staten island dems wanted as they would still control the primary but I doubt their concerns matter and someone has to take in those progressives.
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